1. Presidential Election What You Need to Know
Daryl Montgomery
October 27, 2016
Copyright 2016, All Rights Reserved

2. The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security and are for educational purposes only
The New York Investing meetup is not affiliated with the New York Life Insurance Co.

3. 2016 Presidential Candidates
Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton

4. The Background
This is a highly unusual election. Unlike most, it is not a race between 2 pro-establishment candidates.
Establishment is universally aligned against Trump.
Media has turned into propaganda machine and has permanently damaged its already low credibility.
U.S. has divided into 2 opposing camps creating a politically unstable situation that could last years.
Trump’s candidacy is part of a worldwide anti-globalist trend toward nationalism.
Neither candidate will have a mandate.

5. The Election
Polls cannot be trusted. Most have been biased by improper sampling or questions.
Polls tend to become more honest just before election, but this did NOT happen in BREXIT.
Clinton has more support among entire populace, but only around 50% vote. So, who actually votes determines outcome.
Clinton has turnout issues with heavy DEM groups <30’s and AAs. Will be lower than 2012 and % of vote will be less. Trump groups, higher turnout.

6. Some Examples of Skewed Polling from Real Clear Politics
Virginia: H+12 Christopher Newport University -College grads sample 60%, Actual 35%
Arizona: H+5 Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite -College grads sample 57%, Actual 26% -Democrat sample 44%, Actual 30%
North Carolina H+7 New York Time Upshot/Sienna - College grads sample 46% , Actual 27%

7. Trump vs Clinton Rallies

8. Electoral College (EC) Determines President
Whoever gets most electoral votes wins. Gore won popular vote in 2000.
Clinton’s vote is more geographically. concentrated. Can result in big wins in some states, but small losses in many.
Unlikely, but possible that EC will split evenly. Congress then votes for president.
Clinton could win popular vote and Trump electoral vote.
Election could be tied up in court.

9. Best Guess of Electoral College
Blue Clinton, Red Trump, Grey Either

10. Market Implications
Polls until the end are likely to indicate Hillary will win. A Trump win will shock the market.
Markets will price in a Hillary win. Not much happens.
Expect big stock sell off day after if Trump wins.
Dollar will sell off, bonds will rally.
Gold will rally.
Trump stocks will rally big: Coal #1
Hillary win: Gun stocks #1

11. The End