1. North Korea Threat Assessment: Containing Kim Jong Il

2. Definition of Personality
Personality is …
Distinctive, pervasive patterns of thinking, feeling, acting, and relating to others
Stable over time
Consistent across situations
#2 + #3 = Predictable and Exploitable
Understanding personality guides optimal strategy and tactics for influencing and modifying a subject’s behavior

3. Relevance of Personality Assessment
Systematizes and summarizes huge volumes of observational data that would otherwise be unmanageable or incoherent
Yields a coherent, integrated, internally consistent psychological portrait of the subject
Enhances understanding of the subject’s needs and motives, offering greater insight into political maneuvers (e.g., concessions, demands)
Complements intelligence data on military capabilities to permit more accurate threat assessment

4. Principles of Personality
Consistency over Time
Personality is more consistent at some points in life
Consistency increases with age
Consistency is weaker for attitudes, interests, and opinions than for personality
Coherence: Although temporally consistent, how a trait is manifested in behavior might change over time

5. Kim Jong Il: Hedonistic Narcissist
Indifferent conscience
Aloofness to the truth – fraudulent
Self-serving
Exploitative
Skilled in the art of deception
Fabricate stories to enhance own worth
Leave a trail of broken promises and outrageous acts (swindling, lying, fraud)
Feel entitled to special privileges – Not hostile or malicious in intent
Crafty and cunning – Not malevolent

6. Kim Jong Il vs. Saddam Hussein Hedonistic vs. Malignant Narcissist
Kim Jong-il not fundamentally paranoid in orientation: The hedonistic narcissist is vigilant, but realistically attentive to risk
No unconstrained aggression
Assuming a threatening posture reflects self-protective concerns more than hostile intent
Unlike the malignant narcissist, the hedonistic narcissist is conflict averse, though willing to employ aggressive means in Machiavellian fashion if it serves his self-interest

7. Dealing with Kim Jong-il is notoriously difficult
Risks and Resistances
Dealing with Kim Jong-il is notoriously difficult
Characteristically resistant to influence by criticism, confrontation, or punishment
Direct confrontation or criticism may prompt Kim Jong-il to terminate the relationship
These difficulties are mitigated in the case of the hedonists such as Kim, who has a greater need for admiration, attention, and validation than for power and control, as is the case with the malignant narcissist (KJI may concede)

8. Influence Strategies: The Stick
If the intent is to induce stress …
Kim Jong-il is susceptible to decompensation into an anxiety reaction.
Anxiety state can be instigated by signaling hostile intent, for example, by a strong, persistent show of force.

9. Influence Strategies: The Carrot
If the intent is pacification and conciliation
Kim Jong-il is susceptible to manipulation by hooking his self-image of being superior, socially desirable, and charming.
Compliance can be achieved through flattery, for example, by acknowledging his status and highlighting his achievements.
Compliance can be enhanced through inducements contingent upon behavioral change.

10. Interventions for Gaining Compliance
Targeting resistances (NAR)
Moderate Kim Jong-il’s grandiose self-perception at a personal level in negotiation (e.g., by reducing overvaluation of self-worth by nonjudgmentally correcting favorable but faulty comparisons with others)
Abate exploitative behavior (e.g., by setting realistic limits, consistently enforcing consequences for noncompliance, and rewarding cooperation)

11. Interventions for Gaining Compliance
Targeting resistances (HIS)
Prevent tendency to terminate relationship when the precipitating crisis abates and environment returns to baseline level
Prevent tendency to terminate relationship when subject realizes that there are limits on the ability of the benefactor to offer assistance
Reduce anxiety and hypervigilance by supplying rewards in the form of praise and admiration
Guard against manipulative behavior

12. Tactical Implications
Anticipating Kim Jong-il’s maneuvers
Kim Jong-il’s claims with regard to military capabilities should not be taken at face value, but should be called into question and verified
Relatively conflict averse and unlikely to employ military force without provocation
Relatively open to influence by carefully crafted diplomatic means subjectively perceived as bolstering the subject’s self-worth and self-interest