1. Groupthink 2.0: The Efficacy of Groupthink in China Chapter 1 – Is Deng Xiaoping to be blamed? The dynamics of the CCP leadership group behind the 1989 Tiananmen Crisis Dr. Tony C. Lee University of Taipei, Taiwan
Prolog
Methods
Model 3 Decision-making process explains policy quality
Model 4 Group structure explains decision-making process
1. Content analysis and case study: the minutes of 16 meetings convened by the CCP leadership group are methodically analyzed in order to explore the dynamics of the leadership group.
2. Statistical analysis: Statistical analysis is based on the 16 case studies (minutes. In each case, I code whether groupthink variables are identified in the meeting minutes. (code 1 if a specific variable is detected in the case, otherwise 0). OSL regression is applied to test the association and magnitude of these groupthink variables on policy outcome.
Conclusion
Date: June 2, 1989
Setting: Deng’s compound
Li Xiannian: The Tiananmen Square has been polluted for more than a month now, ravaged into a shadow of itself! We must clear the Square immediately. I say we do it tonight.
Yang Shangkun: We’ve reached a point where we really have to take action.
Deng Xiaoping: We are determined to clear the Square.
Wang Zheng: We have to announce to those who occupying the Square that we are coming in. (…). If it causes deaths, that’s their own fault.
Peng Zhen: I agree that we clear the Square as soon as possible.
Li Peng: I strongly urge that we move immediately to clear the Tiananmen Square
Qiao Shi: Clearing the Square is our only option; it is quite necessary.
Yiao Yilin: I agree with Comrade Xiannian that the clearing should happen as soon as possible.
Deng Xiaoping: I very much agree with all of you. I suggest the martial law troops begin tonight to carry out the clearing plan and finish it within two days (…) But if they refuse to leave, they will be responsible for the consequences.
Both content analysis and statistical analysis illustrate that groupthink symptoms result in the CCP central’s low quality of decision-making during the Tiananmen Crisis. The statistical analysis moreover points out that the most defective faults committed by the CCP leadership group are the members’ incapability of valuing disagreement, member homogeneity, and stereotype of situation. This is particularly true to the case of the “senate of the elders”. For they share similar socio-political background while a unique cultural norm prevents dissident from voicing differently with the opinion of the leader(s). Like Janis has predicted, social-oriented cohesiveness is a catalyst to trigger groupthink symptoms. I moreover discover that the CCP leader(s) can generate strong cuing effect during the concurrence-seeking procedure. That is, the members have tendency to echo, even to exaggerate, the leader’s initial message. The Group manifests its stereotype of situation by prematurely perceiving the student movement as “a struggle of bourgeois liberalism with means to subvert the Party and socialism”. Thinking from a different angle, such a result suggests that Zhao Ziyang’s failed endeavors to rectify the tone of the April 26th editorial is possibly judicious.
This research outcome also reveals that the danger of groupthink as a whole is greater than a biased leadership; the latter variable does not yield statistical significance to affirm its effect on policy quality in the OLS regression model. The case studies also show that Deng Xiaoping’s proposal of imposing a martial law in Beijing municipality or Li Xiannian’s initiative of clearing the Tiananmen Square does not encounter any dissident objection. Indeed, Deng Xiaoping cannot escape from the accusation of being the butcher of Tiananmen massacre; beyond his will, he also falls prey to groupthink.
OSL regression models
Model 1 Group structure and decision-making process explains policy quality
Model 2 Group structure explains policy quality
Research Questions
1. Who is to be blamed for the tragedy of the 1989 Tiananmen Square Incident?
2. What push the leaders in the decision- making group to the edge of committing impulsive actions?
3. Why did the CCP leadership group fail to survey the consequences of "clearing the Tiananmen Square"?
Further information
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