1. Possible Russian Development Paths An Analysis of Recent Trends in Policy and Performance and Some Back-of-the-Envelope Musings about the Future
Christian Gianella & William Tompson
Economics Department
Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development
Global convergence scenarios: structural and policy issues OECD, Paris, 16 January 2006 Salle des Nations, Tour Europe, La Defense
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

2. OECD Economics Department
The usual disclaimer…
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the OECD or its member states.
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

3. OECD Economics Department
Contributions to GDP growth (not adjusted for capacity utilisation rates)
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

4. OECD Economics Department
Natural resource sectors (mainly oil) have been driving the growth of output….
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

5. Non fuel TB and exchange rate
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

6. Cumulative variation of the trade balance and factors’ contributions
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

7. Russia’s population is expected to continue shrinking rapidly to 2050…
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

8. …as the overall population grows older.
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

9. The labour force is therefore set to shrink markedly.
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OECD Economics Department

10. Investment still contributes too little to growth.
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

11. Saving -investment balance (in % GDP)
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

12. A longer-term shift in economic policy may be unfolding.
The authorities are well aware that investment levels are too low. The question is: how to boost them?
A two-track strategy is possible:
Of course, it would be foolish to bank on consistency. . .
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

13. OECD Economics Department
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

14. OECD Economics Department
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department

15. A few observations on Russia’s choices
Institutionally, Russia is not very well equipped for any of the more demanding options.
The survey results are worrying, not least because they suggest deterioration in some of the areas in which Russia most needs to make progress.
Many areas will require substantial improvement regardless of the strategic direction Russia takes.
This implies that a very large part of the structural reform agenda should be relatively non-controversial. So why have we seen so little progress since 2003?
16 January 2006
OECD Economics Department