1. National Early Warning and Monitoring Centre of Natural Disasters - CEMADEN
Osvaldo Moraes

2. “Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in South-western Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal.”
Espinoza et al., Environ. Res. Let., 2014
“Amazon basin has experienced several intense droughts among which were highlighted last recent ones in 2005 and 2010.”
Panisset et al - EGU2017 proceedings.
“The drought conditions that started in 2010 in northeastern Brazil persisted in 2016” - STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017
Floods and flash floods represent 32% of ND
Source: Brazilian Atlas of ND
“By January 2015, main reservoirs had reached storage levels of only 5% of their 1.3 billion m3 capacity” – Nobre et. al., Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2016.

3. CEMADEN: Towards an interdisciplinary perspective
Understanding: what different type of data need to be collected? How to engage citizens?
Forecasting: How to include emerging data in forecasting models and systems?
Alerting: how to issue warnings in face of uncertainties? How to communicate risks? 3

4. Research lines in CEMADEN
Hydrology
Flood risks mapping
Determination of rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of the flashfloods
Hydrologic forecasts using distributed hydrological models
Probabilistic forecasts using hydrological models
Meteorology
Improved estimation of rainfall (QPE) based on radar information
Improvements in the parameterization of mesoscale atmospheric models
Application of agro-meteorological models to detect crop failure in the Brazilian semiarid
Forest fires
Geology
Correlation rainfall-landslides
Characterization of landslides types based on rainfall characteristics
Use of soil moisture models in the prediction of landslides
Environmental constraints and vulnerability to debris flows and mud-slides.
Disasters
Communication and dissemination of early warnings
Influence of Housing in landslide susceptibility and risk assessment
Mapping Vulnerability to landslides

5. Operation at CEMADEN Multidisciplinar teams: Geologists Geographers
Civil and agricultural Engineers
Hydrologists
Meteorologists
TI people
Opened in 2011
24 hours/7 days a week monitoring
Preparation of risk alerts for landslides, floods, flash floods at the district level
958 districts under monitoring by now

6. Observational Monitoring network
hydrological gauges
Weather radar
rain gauges

7. SGRP: remote platform management system & SALVAR: System of Alert and Visualization of Risk Areas

8. SGRP: Receives and integrates all data set of CEMADEN's network and others partners.
From the CEMADEN network it automatically supervises the status of the platforms; fault diagnosis, remote reconfiguration of field equipment, notifications and failures reports AND maintenance schedule.
Partners Network:
INMET: 558
ANA: 2726
FUNCEME: 620
CEMIG: 175
SIMEPAR: 108
INEA: 87
RADARS: 32
Cemaden Network:
Automatic Rain Gauges: 3500
Hydrological PCD: 310;
Geotecnics PCD 10;
Semiarid region: 695
Radars: 9

9. information can be found at
SALVAR: makes the operational transposition of a large amount of meteorological, hydrological, geological, topographic, geotechnical, demographic, socioeconomic information to a single GIS map. It collects data from the multiple partner institutions for a computer language that enables monitoring and early warnings.
information can be found at

10. . Bacia Urbana de Nova Friburgo – RJ (160 km²)
Flood awareness using nowcasting and multi-source nowcasting (SHORT TERM FORECASTING)
. Bacia Urbana de Nova Friburgo – RJ (160 km²)
. Resolução espacial de 250 m x 250 m (mod. hidro. MHD-INPE)
1 km x 1km (radar met. Pico do Couto)
Estação Conselheiro Paulino -INEA
Vazão (m³/s)
Tempo (h)
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
ALERTA
MODERADO
ALERTA
ALTO
PERIGO
MÉDIO
PERIGO
ALTO
PERIGO
BAIXO

11. Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast
Modelo Hidrológico
Radar
MHD-INPE LISFLOOD

12. Case Study: Madeira river results
MHD-INPE
GloFAS

13. Sao Francisco River basin: Weekly monitoring and early warning for risks of flow running to hydropower stations

14. Drought Risk Reduction in NE Brazil

15. Making emergency policies for disaster mitigation in NE Brazil
Financial benefits for people affected by the drought;
Financial support for well drilling;
Distribution of water for population;
Etc;

16. Sistema Cantareira: Weekly monitoring and early warning for water supply system under drought risk
Seasonal scenarios of river flows
Ensemble forecast of river flows
Data assimilation from uncertainty of river flows

17. Coastal vulnerability: sea level rise and storm surges in Santos, SP
2050 (High SLR: 0.23 m m)
Lost asset value
2100 (High SLR: 0.45 m m)
Lost asset value
Medium vulnerability
High vulnerability
Zanetti et al (2016)
Marengo et al (2016)

18. OBRIGADO!
Osvaldo L L Moraes