1. Do pastoralists have a role in domestic and export livestock trade?
PACAPS/RELPA
Garissa
22-25 Sep, 2008

2. Pastoralists in domestic and export trade
The commonly accepted ‘fact’ is pastoralists accumulate wealth through livestock accumulation and don’t sell surplus animals. Therefore:
Group 1: So, they don’t contribute that much for domestic and export markets. Government should support them to be engaged in commercial production systems to maximize benefit from livestock marketing.
Group 2: No, they contribute a lot to domestic and export markets and need not be persuaded to be engaged in commercial production systems.

3. Livestock population of Eastern Africa (Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia)
Type
Number in millions
% of Africa
% of the world
Cattle
119.8 51
8.8
Sheep
86.8 36
8.4
Goats
93.3 43
12.7
Camels
10.7 74
57.7

4. ASAL AREAS Sudan Ethiopia Kenya Land area Nearly 100% 60% 80%
Pastoral population
10 million
10 m
8-10

5. The Contribution of Livestock to GDP
Variables
Ethiopia
Sudan
Kenya
Share of Agric to GDP (%) 55 42 33
Share of livestock to agric. GDP (%) 40 20
Share of livestock to total GDP (%) 8 12

6. ASAL’s contribution to domestic and export markets
70% of the domestic meat demand in Kenya
% in Ethiopia
100% in Somalia and Sudan
85% export revenues in Somalia
25% in Sudan, before oil
<5% in Ethiopia and Kenya

7. ASAL’s contribution to domestic and export markets
70% of the domestic meat demand in Kenya
25% in Ethiopia
100% in Somalia and Sudan
85% export revenues in Somalia
25% in Sudan, before oil
<5% in Ethiopia and Kenya

8. Volume of exports (2006) Type Sudan Somalia Ethiopia Kenya Live sheep
23,000 NA
Live cattle
5,000
50,000
103,000
2,000?
Chilled carcass (shoats)
500,000
600,000
800,000 ?
Camels
2,000 (racing)
10,000?
4,000
1,000

9. Value of livestock and meat exports (2006)
Sudan - $125 million
Somalia - $200 million
Ethiopia - $25 million
Kenya - ?
Nearly all the livestock exported from the region were sourced from pastoral areas
Note: excluding revenues from hides and skins

10. Major export destinations
Saudi Arabia (during the Haj)
UAE, Yemen, Bahrain, Qatar, Egypt
However, this potential trade is from time to time affected by bans on real and perceived fears
Such bans seriously affect the livelihoods of pastoralists

11. Cross-border and international livestock trade

12. Sheep exports from Sudan

13. International meat trade
The global meat trade is dominated by Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, Argentina, USA, New Zealand and of late, India and EU
Capable of exporting to high and low-end markets
In 2015, Global meat consumption is projected to be 315 mmt
In 2005, traded poultry was 7.5 mmt, beef, 7.4 mmt and sheep meat 1.2 mmt

14. Trends
Growth in meat demand is forecasted to level off at 2% per annum after 2,015
The EU is expected to be a net importer of 530,000 MT in 2015 (against a net export volume of 1.5 mmt in 2005)
Despite the opportunity, none of the EA countries are likely to export to high end markets due to SPS and other factors

15. Challenges for EA
A growing demand for particular cuts that allow ease of preparation
An increasing requirement by importers for certification, sometimes by third parties
Greater need for product safety (traceability)
Greater concern for animal welfare
Developed countries will continue to be the major players in growth in global meat production and consumption
The use of SPS as a highly effective form of protection

16. Trends - cont'
Increasing standards in MENA countries also threatens the likelihood of exports from EA region (unless and if standards are compromised by acute meat shortages)
This necessitates:
Investments in SPS systems
Investments in economy of scale processing capacity (including meat grading systems)
Commercial production (stratified marketing system)
Integrated marketing systems

17. Issues in SPS
Obviously, upgrading and strengthening Veterinary services, animal disease reporting, surveillance and control is critical to bring the SPS status to an acceptable standard
The economic viability of establishing new DFZs, however, requires serious consideration
Because initial and maintenance investments are high, technically difficult, recognition takes too long and the costs of social exclusion are high
70-80% of the national livestock population belonging to communities in Botswana, Namibia and S.Africa are excluded from international markets
Is CBT an alternative to DFZs?

18. African exporters position in the EU