1. CariCOF Climate Outlook
August-September-October 2017
and November-December 2017 / January 2018
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC

3. rainfall

4. ASO Rainfall O month lead (ML)

5. CPT probabilistic ASO rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , July initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over ASO
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over ASO data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO data source: NOAA CPC NMME , July initialisation).
Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

6. CPT probabilistic ASO Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:4
Initial :468
Values : 20
Index : 0.229
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 426
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4
Experiment 2
CCA modes:2
Initial : 468
Index :0.176
90-20W & 30-0N
!Limited!
Y modes : 2
Experiment 3
CCA modes:3
Index : 0.281
X modes : 3
Fair
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index :0.237
X modes : 4

7. CPT probabilistic ASO Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used : 424
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:1
Index :0.273
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 428
Fair
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 1
Experiment 7
CCA modes:2
Index :0.257
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
Y modes :3

8. NDJ Rainfall 3 month lead (ML)

9. CPT probabilistic NDJ rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , July (initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over NDJ
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over NDJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, July ( initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over NDJ.

10. CPT probabilistic NDJ Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Initial :468
Values : 20
Index : 0.157
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 403
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes :3
Experiment 2
Initial : 468
Index : 0.127
90-20W & 30-0N
Y modes : 2
Experiment 3
CCA modes:1
Index :0.150
CFSv2
Y modes : 3
Experiment 4
Index :0.137
X modes : 6

11. CPT probabilistic NDJ Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used : 426
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Index :0.159
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 6
Used : 421
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes :5
Experiment 7
CCA modes:1
Index :0.140
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 3

12. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) August-September-October 2017

13. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) November-December 2017 / January 2018

14. precipitation outlooks

15. Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Nine data sources (incl. GPCs):
IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance);
UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast;
European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts;
APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts;
WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME.
CFSv2 model
MétéoFrance Arpège model.
JMA model
Environment Canada CMC model
Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T2m outlooks (see Appendix).
Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise:
SSTs in the Niño region of the Pacific have recently been borderline neutral to weak El Niño conditions (Niño 3.4 SST anomalies around +0.5°C). Most models, suggest temperature anomalies to remain slightly positive by ASO and NDJ, favouring neutral (50-60% confidence) over weak El Niño (around 35% confid.). Compared to previous updates, this means a much decreased chance for El Niño.
Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs east of the Caribbean have warmed significantly, especially near the west African coast, to 0.5-1°C above average. By comparison, SSTs are now 0-0.5°C above avg. in the Caribbean Sea as well as in the TNA north of the islands. Models suggest either sustained positive anomalies, or a gradual return to values close to average in the eastern TNA by NDJ.
With ENSO conditions predicted to be warm neutral to borderline weak El Niño, impact on Caribbean rainfall is expected to be limited. However, if El Niño were to strongly manifest, which is unlikely, chances for drier than usual conditions in the southern Caribbean and Guianas would increase.
Warm SSTs east of the Caribbean may lead to above-average humidity and atmospheric instability in the wet season, which tilts the odds towards a wetter second half of the wet season, and a more intense peak of the hurricane season.
With SSTs remaining above average throughout much of the region, air temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average, but wetter than usual conditions should restrict max temps from beyond well above average.

16. Probabilistic ASO rainfall forecast map

17. Probabilistic NDJ rainfall forecast map

18. MEAN 2m temperature

19. ASO Temperature O month lead (ML)

20. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , Jul initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over ASO.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over ASO (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Jul initialisation).

21. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Initial :68
Values : 20
Index : 0.208
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 45
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Experiment 2
Initial : 68
Index : 0.160
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
!Limited!
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 3
Index : 0.216
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.213
Y modes : 5

22. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 68
Values : 20
Index : 0.295
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 44
Stations : 10
Fair
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 7
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.281
90-20W & 30-0N
Y modes : 6

23. NDJ Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

24. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Jun (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Jun.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , Jul initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over NDJ.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over NDJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , Jul initialisation).

25. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial :68
Values : 20
Index : 0.159
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 6
Used : 43
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5
Experiment 2
Initial : 68
Index : 0.029
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 3
!Very Limited!
Y modes : 7
Experiment 3
Index : 0.161
X modes : 7
CFSv2
Y modes : 6
Experiment 4
Index : 0.134

26. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 68
Values : 20
Index : 0.212
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 43
Stations : 10
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 7
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.153
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6
!Limited!
Y modes : 5

27. CariCOF Objective Mean T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) August - September – October 2017

28. CariCOF Objective Mean T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) November - December 2017 / January 2017

29. Temperature outlooks

30. Probabilistic ASO 2m Temperature forecast map

31. Probabilistic NDJ 2m Temperature forecast map

32. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2m temperature

33. aSO Max. Temperature O month lead (ML)

34. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Max. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , July initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over ASO.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over ASO (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , July initialisation).

35. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0187
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 3
Used : 40
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4
Experiment 2
Initial : 52
Index : 0.081
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6
!!Very Limited!!
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.221
X modes : 5
Moderate
CFSv2
Y modes : 7
Experiment 4
Index : 0.194

36. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.223
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 39
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4
Experiment 7
Index : 0.180
90-20W & 30-0N
!Limited!
Y modes : 3

37. NDJ Max. Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

38. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , July initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over NDJ.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over NDJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , July initialisation).

39. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.116
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 38
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 52
Index : 0.005
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 4
!!Very Limited!!
Y modes : 5
Experiment 3
Index : 0.132
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.097
Y modes : 6

40. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.174
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 1
Used : 38
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 7
Index :
90-20W & 30-0N

41. CariCOF Objective Maximum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) August-September - October 2017

42. CariCOF Objective Maximum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) November-December 2017 / January 2018

43. Probabilistic JAS 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

44. Probabilistic OND 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

45. ASO Min. Temperature O month lead (ML)

46. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Min. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , July initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over ASO.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over ASO (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over ASO (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , July initialisation).

47. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.157
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 41
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 2
Initial : 52
Index : 0.079
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 3
!!Very Limited!!
Y modes : 4
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.209
X modes : 5
Moderate
CFSv2
Y modes : 5
Experiment 4
Index : 0.190
X modes : 6
Y modes : 6

48. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
Index : 0.256
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 40
Fair
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 7
CCA modes: 7
Index : 0.237
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 2
Used : 39
Moderate

49. NDJ Min. Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

50. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , July initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over NDJ.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over NDJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , July initialisation).

51. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Initial :52
Values : 20
Index : 0.084
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 40
Stations : 10
!!Very Limited!!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 52
Index :
90-20W & 30-0N
Negative Skill
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.101
!Limited!
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.061
X modes : 7
Y modes : 4

52. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:
Initial : 52
Values : 20
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes :
Used :
Stations : 10
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Index : 0.119
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 4
Used : 39
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 7
Index : 0.138
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes :6

53. CariCOF Objective Minimum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) August - September – October 2017

54. CariCOF Objective Minimum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) November – December 2017 / January 2018

55. Probabilistic ASO 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

56. Probabilistic NDJ 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

57. Drought outlook

58. Drought
outlook
MJJASO

59. CPT probabilistic MJJASO
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over June.
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JASO (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).

60. CPT probabilistic AMJJAS Drought forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index : 0.300
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 6
Used : 428
Stations : 10
Good
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 1
Index : 0.238
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 5
Moderate
Y modes : 1
Experiment 3
CCA modes:
Initial :
Index :
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes :
Used :
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :

61. Drought
outlook
DJFMAMjjason

62. CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over June (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).

63. CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index : 0.280
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 6
Used : 394
Stations : 10
Fair
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4

64. CariCOF Drought Outlook
By the end of October 2017
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

65. Shorter term Drought Outlook (May to October 2017) Areas under immediate drought concern?
Current Outlook
Current update (July 2017):
As we transition from the dry into the wet season, we continue to see no drought concern developing throughout the region, except:
A drought warning is issued for Haïti.
A drought watch is issued for central parts of The Bahamas.
Previous Outlook

66. Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the wet season (November 30th, 2017)?
Current Outlook
This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through June 2017, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-1.3 (very dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN).
A drought warning is in effect for central parts of The Bahamas.
A drought watch is in effect for northern parts of The Bahamas.
Previous Outlook

67. Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?
Current drought situation (up to the end of June 2017): (more information here)
Central parts of The Bahamas as well as Turks & Caicos have seen short term and long term drought developing. Short term drought is also seen in central and western Hispaniola.
An area spanning from the Cayman Islands over central Cuba to central Bahamas, as well as the extreme south and north-west of Belize and the TCI are in long-term drought.
Shorter term drought situation (by the end of October 2017):
Due to a marked rainfall deficit in Haïti in May and June, we expect a shorter term drought situation to evolve there. Short term drought might also persist in central parts of the Bahamas.
Long term drought situation (by the end of November 2017):
Long term drought is evolving in central parts of the Bahamas and will possibly develop in N Bahamas.
Though the potential long term drought concerns are very few region-wide at this time, we advise all stakeholders to keep monitoring drought and look for our monthly updates.
One definite reason to keep monitoring the situation is the possibility of an El Niño developing this year (with a chance of 35%). If a strong enough El Niño manifests, that may raise drought concerns when we will go into the next dry season by the end of 2017.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR &
CONSERVE WATER !!

68. Drought of immediate concern
Alert level
Meaning
Action level
NO CONCERN
No drought concern
monitor resources
update and ratify management plans
public awareness campaigns
upgrade infrastructure
DROUGHT WATCH
Drought possible
keep updated
protect resources and conserve water
implement management plans
response training
monitor and repair infrastructure
DROUGHT WARNING
Drought evolving
protect resources
conserve and recycle water
release public service announcements
last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades
report impacts
DROUGHT EMERGENCY
Drought of immediate concern
implement management and response plans
enforce water restrictions and recycling
enforce resource protection
repair infrastructure

69. Thresholds Goodness Index Skill Thresholds Negative Skill < 0
Very Limited
0 – 0.1
Limited
0.1 – 0.2
Moderate
0.2 – 0.25
Fair
Good
> 0.3
Drought
Alert Levels
Probabilities
No Concern
<
Drought Watch
– 50
Drought Warning
50 –
Drought Emergency ≥
ROC
Discrimination
Thresholds No
< 0.5
Poor
Moderate
0.6 – 0.7
Fair
Good
0.8 – 0.95
Very Good
> 0.95

70. Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks
August to October 2017
Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK1 , Wazita Scott1, Dr. Simon MASON2, Ángel MUÑOZ2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN2, Dale Destin3
1Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados
2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA
3Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

71. Wet day frequency shifts ASO 2017 Frequency of wet days
Precipitation outlook
Wet day frequency shifts
Forecast for: August to October 2017
ASO Frequency of wet days
USUALLY: Out of 92 days in Aug-Sep-Oct, there are about 35 to 50 wet days (coastal Guianas: 15-30; ABC Islands: 10-20).
FORECAST: ASO rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in the Antilles (except Trinidad & Tobago), The Bahamas and Belize, but below-normal in Trinidad & Tobago. We forecast slightly more wet days in the islands north of Martinique, but fewer wet days in Belize, and most places south of Martinique (medium to high confidence).
IMPLICATION:
Frequent rainfall disruptions of outdoor activities, especially in Sept.-Oct.
Surface wetness makes environmental conditions more conducive to mosquito breeding and moisture related pests.

72. Wet spells frequency shifts
Precipitation outlook
Wet spells frequency shifts
Forecast for: August to October 2017
ASO 2017 frequency of 7-day wet spells
USUALLY: Between 3 and 6 wet spells (coastal Guianas: 1-3) occur from August to October, with 1 to 4 of them ending up very wet (coastal Guianas: up to 2).
FORECAST: ASO rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in the Antilles (except Trinidad & Tobago), The Bahamas and Belize, but below-normal in Trinidad & Tobago. We forecast slightly more wet days in the islands north of Martinique, but fewer wet days in Belize, and most places south of Martinique (medium to high confidence). By contrast, we forecast the usual number of wet and very wet spells (low confid.).
IMPLICATION:
Recharge of large water reservoirs associated with wet season.
Wet days outlook
ASO 2017 frequency of 7-day very wet spells

73. Extreme wet spells frequency shifts
Precipitation outlook
Extreme wet spells frequency shifts
Forecast for: August to October 2017
USUALLY: Up to 2 extreme wet spells occur from August to October, except in the Guianas where it is the dry season.
FORECAST: ASO rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in the Antilles (except Trinidad & Tobago), The Bahamas and Belize, but below-normal in Trinidad & Tobago. We forecast slightly more wet days in the islands north of Martinique, but fewer wet days in Belize, and most places south of Martinique (medium to high confidence). By contrast, we forecast the usual number of wet, very wet and extremely wet spells (low confid.).
IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential is a concern throughout the region.
ASO 2017 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3-day wet spells
Wet days outlook
Wet spells outlook
Very wet spells outlook

74. August to October 2017 No. of wet days
No. of 7-day wet spells (20% wettest)
No. of 7-day very wet spells (10% wettest)
No. of 3-day extremely wet spells (1% wettest)
Climatology
Forecast
Antigua (VC Bird)
31-45
34-47
3-6
3-6.2
0-1
0-1.7
Aruba (Beatrix)
9-21
6-21
0-2
0-1.4
Barbados (CIMH)
37-50
34-50
4-7.1
2-4.4
0.2-2
Barbados (GAIA)
40-49
2-4.3
0-1.9
Belize (C. Farm)
29-49
3-6.4
3-6.1
0-2.2
Cayman
35-46
36-52
4.4-7
Cuba (Punta Maisi)
12-27
16-37
Dom. Republic (Las Americas)
27-37
27-42
3.9-6
Dominica (Canefield)
45-61
2.9-7
0-2.5
Dominica (Douglas Charles)
57-70
57-74
Grenada (MBIA)
37-47
34-48
Guyana_73
11-21
7-20
0.9-3
0-2.1
0-0
Guyana (Albion)
14-28
11-28
1-3.4
0-0.7
Guyana (Blairmont)
19-32
15-29
0-1.3
Guyana (Enmore)
Guyana (Georgetown)
16-31
13-28
0-0.3
Guyana (New Amsterdam)
22-38
16-32
Guyana (Skeldon)
25-40
20-38
0-0.1
Guyana (Timehri)
20-28
17-30
0.4-3
Jamaica (Worthy Park)
21-31
0-0.4
Martinique (FDF Desaix)
34-44
29-42
Puerto Rico (San Juan)
27-38
24-36
1.7-3
0-0.2
St. Lucia (Hewanorra)
30-47
33-53
St. Maarten (TNCM)
50-63
47-62
St. Vincent (ET Joshua)
39-51
39-52
0-1.5
Suriname (Zanderij)
44-58
40-54
1.6-5
Tobago (ANR Robinson)
34-49
37-56
0-1.2
Trinidad (Piarco)
53-63
49-62
brown is a decrease in frequency, dark blue an increase, grey none are expected

75. Heat Outlook for August to November 2017 - Frequent excessive heat
Dr. Simon MASON2, Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK1 Dr. Hannah Nissan2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN2 , Wazita Scott1
1Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados
2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA

76. How hot will the next three to six months be?
Night time
Day time
FORECAST:
temperatures from August to January during both night & day likely warmer than usual.
The hottest part of the year (Aug. to Sep.) will be warmer than usual.
IMPLICATIONS:
Elevated heat stress between August and October in the vulnerable population and small livestock.
Increased cooling need.
Aug-Sep-Oct 2017
Milder Usual Hotter
Milder Usual Hotter
Nov-Dec-Jan 2017-’18

77. What’s the chance of having at least … heatwave days from August to November 2017?
FORECAST:
60-90% chance for at least 14 heatwave days except Belize, Cayman and parts of Cuba.
More than 40% chance of having at least 30 heatwave days in many places in the Lesser Antilles and coastal Guianas.

78. How many heatwave days from August to November 2017?
USUALLY:
At least a few heatwave days are counted in most locations between August and November.
Most heatwave days tend to occur between August and October.
FORECAST:
There is an increase in heatwave days forecast for ASON Some locations may experience heatwaves 25% of the time.
IMPLICATIONS:
Very likely increase in heat stress from heatwaves in human populations or livestock.
More discomfort related to very warm temperatures until the end of October than in recent months.

79. appendix

80. Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor Maps

81. Caribbean RCC Rainfall and SPI Monitor Maps

82. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

83. NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting

84. Explanatory variables – NMME Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region
El Niño region

85. Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs

86. US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update

87. Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast

89. IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

90. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

91. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast

92. UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast

93. NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast
AMERICA

94. APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

95. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

96. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast

97. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast
ASO 2017 (0.5 month lead)
NDJ 2017-’18 (3.5 month lead)

98. IRI – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

99. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

100. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T2m forecast

101. UK Met Office – probabilistic T2m forecast

102. APCC – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

103. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T2m forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

104. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T2m forecast

105. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T2m forecast
ASO 2017 (0.5 month lead)
NDJ 2017 (3.5 month lead)

106. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
rcc.cimh.edu.bb
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
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