1. FORECASTING SALES fried WHICH ARE IN CAMPUS ENGINEERING UNLAM BANJARBARU USING MPS (MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULE)
NAME : TAUFIQ HIDAYAT
NIM : H1F114202
STUDY PROGRAM S-1 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
LAMBUNG MANGKURAT UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
BANJARBARU
2016

2. MAHASISWA
TAUFIQ HIDAYAT

3. BACKGROUND
Forecasting is an initial part of a process of making a decision and is needed in daily life, in order to determine an event or the value of the data on events that will occur. As in any sale of goods, making plans for the future is a matter that must be considered by the company concerned. Seeing the state of an increasingly complex market it is necessary to learn how to be a sales target can be increased. From past data necessary for future forecasting can help forecast sales of goods the next few years, so it can be prepared policies or actions that need to be done. Bulb sales efforts and fried foods that were on the campus of Engineering Unlam Banjarbaru is crowded with shoppers, particularly in the sales gorengannya. Almost every week its sales continue to rise fried interest buyers, from here we are going to predict how much money needs to be prepared for the weeks to come. Based on the description of the background described, the authors are interested to forecast sales of the fried food using MPS (master production schedule) to predict berapada funds that will be released in the coming week. From this background, the authors take the title "Sales Forecasting Gorengan located on the campus of Engineering Unlam Banjarbaru using the MPS (Master Production Schedule)".

4. Research Objectives
to know how to prepare funds / money to be prepared for sale in the future.

5. Benefits Research
As for some of the benefits of this research, is as follows:
Providing learning about methods MPS (Master Production Schedule).
Provide a more effective solution to the problem of funding the fried food sales to the merchant.

6. DEFINITIONS PREDICTION
Forecasting (forecasting) is a vital part of every business organization and to every management decision is highly significant. Forecasting the basis for the company's long-term planning. In the functional areas of finance, forecasting provides the basis for determining the budget and cost control. In the marketing department, sales forecasting needed to plan for new products, sales force compensation, and several other important decisions. Furthermore, in the production and operation using forecasting data for capacity planning, facilities, production, scheduling, and control inventories (inventory control). To establish economic policies such as the level of economic growth, unemployment, inflation, etc. can also be done by the method of forecasting. Forecasting is the use of past data from a variable or set of variables to estimate its value in the future. The basic assumption in the application of the techniques of forecasting is: "If we can Predict what the future will be like we can modify our behavior now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have been, when the future arrives." That is, if we can predict what happens in the future then we can change our habits for the better now and will be much more different in the future. This is due to the performance in the past will continue to be repeated at least in the foreseeable future relatively dekat.Peramalan is the use of past data from a variable or set of variables to estimate its value in the future. The basic assumption in the application of the techniques of forecasting is: "If we can Predict what the future will be like we can modify our behavior now to be in a better position, than we otherwise would have been, when the future arrives." That is, if we can predict what happens in the future then we can change our habits for the better now and will be much more different in the future. This is due to the performance in the past will continue to be repeated at least in the relatively near future.

7. Understanding MPS (master production schedul)
The master production schedule is planned in the short-term production peerusahaan produce finished products or finished products, which will be used to adjust the production plan and supervision.
The purpose of making the master production schedule by the company are:
So that the final product is completed on schedule according to which promised to consumers.
To meghindari overloaded or under loaded in the utilization of production facilities to be efficient and low production costs result
To achieve that goal, then before the scheduled parent made the company needs to first look back forecasts that consumer demand will come, consumer demand has been entered, inventory levels, workload and capacity of facilities owned by the company in each week. With mereviwe back the number of requests is expected that balances workloads with available capacity.

8. Forecasting system Table 2.1 on past data in the last four weeks
periode (minggu) 1 2 3 4
harga/biji
pangsit
1000
785
884
950
Rp. 500
tahu
1250
1100
900
870
pentol
1500
1425
1450
1300
Table 2.2 percentage results for the third item
periode (minggu) 1 2 3 4
total %
pangsit
1000
785
884
950
3619
27%
Tahu
1250
1100
900
870
4120
31%
Pentol
1500
1425
1450
1300
5675
42%
3750
3310
3234
3120
13414
100%
3619 ∑𝑑𝑡 =27%
Persentage =
Information :
Persentage= the sales amount in 4 weeks total number of 3 kinds of fried

9. dt’ = a + b x t dt’ = 3845 + (-196,6) x t T dt t^2 t*dt dt' 1 3750 22
3310 4
6620 3
3234 9
9702
3120 16
12480 10
13414 30
32552
dt’ = a + b x t a
402420
325520
76900
3845
120
100 20 b
130208
134140
-3932
-196.6
dt’ = (-196,6) x t
minggu 5
2862
minggu 6
2665.4

10. Table 2.4 on the calculation obtain dt 'for week 5 and 6
periode (minggu) 1 2 3 4 5  
total
persentase
pangsit
1000
785
884
950
3619
19%
tahu
1250
1100
900
870
4120
22%
pentol
1500
1425
1450
1300
5675
30%
3750
3310
3234
3120
2862
2665.4
100%
To get the data forecasting at weeks 5 and 6 that the percentage mengalika historical data and dt 'from weeks 5 and 6, it will get the following data. %
periode (minggu) 5
dlm ribuan 6
19%
pangsit
547
509
22%
tahu
623
580
579759
30%
pentol
857
799

11. Table 2.5 Results of sales forecasting
periode (minggu) 1 2 3 4 5 6
total
persentase
pangsit
1000
785
884
950
547
509
22%
tahu
1250
1100
900
870
623
580
25%
pentol
1500
1425
1450
1300
857
799
34%
3750
3310
3234
3120
2862
2665.4
100%
jumlah uang(Rp)

12. Conclusion
From the test results of the Master Production Schedule (MPS) on the sale of fried foods, it can be concluded that this method can work well.
From the results above forecast can be seen for the money to be provided for the 5th week in the amount Rp , while for the money to be provided at week 6 is equal Rp
With keterbatasn data or historical data at least then the result is not 100% accurate.