1. Water, climate change and human health
Roger Aertgeerts
Regional Adviser, Water and Sanitation
WHO Regional Office for Europe

2. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
Agenda
Introduction to the WHO European region
Water resources and use
Climate change impact on water resources
Adaptation concerns
Way forward
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

3. Subregional differences in Europe
Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Subregional differences in Europe
HDI
HDI rank
GDP
1000
GDP rank
LUX
60,2 1
ICE
0,96
ALB
0,80 68
5,3 18
LTH
0,86 43
14,5 46
MDV
0,71
111
2,10
136
RUS 67
10,8 58
TJK
0,67
122
1,3
152
The WHO Regional Office for Europe serves the needs of 54 countries; from Iceland in the west to the Russian Federation in the east, from the North Cape to the southern border of Israel.
The Human Development Index is a composite index based on life expectancy, education, and economic development.
The slide shows the significant differences that continue to exist in the European region of the WHO. This is important since the implementation of Water Safety Plans is driven by a desire to improve human health, but its implementation is depending on the technical capacity available in country, and on the financial means for implementing water safety plans.
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

4. Mortality in the European region
Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Mortality in the European region
Source: WHO Health for All database
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

5. Economic vulnerability
Countries with annual GDP per capita of less than 6,000 USD are assumed to be at additional risk of diarrhoea.
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

6. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
Agenda
Introduction to the WHO European region
Water resources and use
Climate change impact on water resources
Adaptation concerns
Way forward
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

7. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

8. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

9. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Renewable water resources in Europe, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Water consumption - top countries, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

10. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
Agenda
Introduction to the WHO European region
Water resources and use
Climate change impact on water resources
Adaptation concerns
Way forward
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

11. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
FAQ 3.1, Figure 1. (Top) Annual global mean observed temperatures1 (black dots) along with simple fits to the data. The left hand axis shows anomalies relative to the 1961 to 1990 average and the right hand axis shows the estimated actual temperature (°C). Linear trend fits to the last 25 (yellow), 50 (orange), 100 (purple) and 150 years (red) are shown, and correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906 to 2005, and 1856 to 2005, respectively. Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated warming. The blue curve is a smoothed depiction to capture the decadal variations. To give an idea of whether the fluctuations are meaningful, decadal 5% to 95% (light grey) error ranges about that line are given (accordingly, annual values do exceed those limits). Results from climate models driven by estimated radiative forcings for the 20th century (Chapter 9) suggest that there was little change prior to about 1915, and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th-century change was contributed by naturally occurring influences including solar radiation changes, volcanism and natural variability. From about 1940 to 1970 the increasing industrialisation following World War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling, and increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed warming after the mid-1970s. (Bottom) Patterns of linear global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface (left), and for the troposphere (right) from the surface to about 10 km altitude, from satellite records. Grey areas indicate incomplete data. Note the more spatially uniform warming in the satellite tropospheric record while the surface temperature changes more clearly relate to land and ocean.
1 From the HadCRUT3 data set.
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

12. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Warming trends
Figure 3.9. Linear trend of annual temperatures for 1901 to 2005 (left; °C per century) and 1979 to 2005 (right; °C per decade). Areas in grey have insufficient data to produce reliable trends. The minimum number of years needed to calculate a trend value is 66 years for 1901 to 2005 and 18 years for 1979 to An annual value is available if there are 10 valid monthly temperature anomaly values. The data set used was produced by NCDC from Smith and Reynolds (2005). Trends significant at the 5% level are indicated by white + marks.
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

13. Decrease of Artic sea ice
Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Decrease of Artic sea ice
10 months ago: This is a photo released by Push Pictures showing British explorer and endurance swimmer Lewis Gordon Pugh in the waters of the North Pole Sunday July 15, Pugh took to the freezing waters in just his Speedo swimming briefs, cap and goggles to highlight the devastating impact of climate change on the natural world. It took him 18 minutes and 50 seconds to swim 1 kilometre (0.6 miles) in in waters created by melted sea ice at temperatures of minus 1.8C (29F)
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, The decrease of Arctic sea ice, minimum extent in 1982 and 2007, and climate projections, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

14. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
FAQ 3.3, Figure 1
FAQ 3.3, Figure 1. Observed trends (days per decade) for 1951 to 2003 in the frequency of extreme temperatures, defined based on 1961 to 1990 values, as maps for the 10th percentile: (a) cold nights and (b) cold days; and 90th percentile: (c) warm nights and (d) warm days. Trends were calculated only for grid boxes that had at least 40 years of data during this period and had data until at least Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level. Below each map are the global annual time series of anomalies (with respect to 1961 to 1990). The orange line shows decadal variations. Trends are significant at the 5% level for all the global indices shown. Adapted from Alexander et al. (2006).
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

15. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Figure (Top) Observed trends (% per decade) for 1951 to 2003 in the contribution to total annual precipitation from very wet days (95th percentile). Trends were only calculated for grid boxes where both the total and the 95th percentile had at least 40 years of data during this period and had data until at least (Middle) Anomalies (%) of the global annual time series (with respect to 1961 to 1990) defined as the percentage change of contributions of very wet days from the base period average (22.5%). The smooth orange curve shows decadal variations (see Appendix 3.A). From Alexander et al. (2006). (Bottom) Regions where disproportionate changes in heavy and very heavy precipitation during the past decades were documented as either an increase (+) or decrease (–) compared to the change in the annual and/or seasonal precipitation (updated from Groisman et al., 2005). Thresholds used to define “heavy” and “very heavy” precipitation vary by season and region. However, changes in heavy precipitation frequencies are always greater than changes in precipitation totals and, in some regions, an increase in heavy and/or very heavy precipitation occurred while no change or even a decrease in precipitation totals was observed.
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

16. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

17. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Credit: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Freshwater stress, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

18. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Trends in natural disasters, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

19. Workshop on Water and Climate Change
The bottom line…
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change

20. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Population affected
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Population, area and economy affected by a 1 m sea level rise (global and regional estimates, based on today's situation), UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

21. Climate change refugees
Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
Climate change refugees
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Fifty million climate refugees by 2010, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

22. Workshop on water and adaptation to climate change
1 July 2008
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Projected impact of climate change, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, (Accessed 20 May 2008)
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change
R Aertgeerts WHO Regional adviser on water and health

23. Adaptation of the entire “trinity”
1 July 2008
Workshop on Water and Climate Change