1. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources
University of Utah
Hydroinformatics - Fall 2015

2. Module Overview
Goal: Analyze climate impacts on hydrologic response and water system reliability in SLC
Activities:
Climate Data: CMIP5
Databases: MySQL and TOAD
Change factor module in R
WEAP hydrologic modeling
WEAP water management modeling
Automation and Analysis using WEAP

3. Learning Objectives
Describe global climate change modeling and downscaling
Access CMIP5 data archive
Create a local database and generate SQL script with TOAD
Write a statistical downscaling method, change factor approach, in R
Generate future precipitation based on climate change models

4. Climate Change
Mean-Annual precipitation change, percent CMPI3, to , 50%tile
BCCA CMIP3 Daily Climate Analysis example - Calendar-day, ensemble-mean change in 20-year diurnal temperature range

5. Why Climate Change is important for water managers?

6. General Circulation Models
Numerical models representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface
Most advanced tools
currently available
Three dimensional grid
Their resolution is
quite coarse to evaluate the
impact on water resources

7. Downscaling (Change Factor Approach)

8. Impact Assessment
Andy Wood (2015)

9. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5)
Archive of fine spatial resolution of climate projections over US.
Updated archive, May 2013:
234 projections of monthly data
134 projections of daily data
Resolution: 1/8° latitude-longitude (~12km by 12 km)
Time Coverage:
Variables:
precipitation
maximum temperature
minimum temperature

10. Accessing climate projection data

11. Toad for MySQL
A freeware development tool for the management of a MySQL database.
Rapidly create and execute queries, automate database object management, and develop SQL code more efficiently.
Provides utilities to compare, extract, and search for objects; manage projects; import/export data; and administer the database.
Dramatically increases productivity and provides access to an active user community.

12. Toad helps in Quickly create and execute queries
Automate database object management
Develop SQL code more efficiently
Compare, extract, and search for objects
Manage projects
Import/export data
Administer databases
Increase productivity
Access an active user community

13. Next session
Create a hydrologic model and water supply system model in WEAP
Download and install WEAP before the class
Homework #9:
Complete the Change Factor approach code in R. At the end will present graphs to compare the change factors for two stations (Parleys and Airport), three time slices of , , and , and four emission scenarios.