1. 2017 APA California Conference Economic Considerations for Agricultural Sector Growth
APA Session:
The three e’s of agriculture: how planning can support sustainable growth in the food system
Duncan MacEwan
ERA Economics, LLC
September 25, 2017

2. Roadmap Trends in California agriculture
What drives the market and how does that mesh with local planning/policies?
Case study: Specialty crop agriculture in the Sacramento area
SACOG initiative to evaluate the economic contribution of specialty crop agriculture
Value-added, output, and jobs
Leveraging insights to encourage growth in Sacramento’s agricultural industry
Headwinds and Tailwinds for California agriculture
Markets
Regulations
Resources

3. Fruit & Citrus Local and export market trends
Demand for fresh fruits and vegetables
Local and export market trends
Preferences for packable, transportable snacks

4. Farm Prices Slightly decreasing production Flat prices
Peaches
Slightly decreasing production
Flat prices
Uptick since 2014
Tangerines
Increasing price
Increasing production

5. Incentivizing Growth in Agriculture
Policies to encourage growth in agricultural industries must be consistent with underlying market trends
Economics
Quantify market
Identify risks and opportunities
Evaluate and compare tradeoffs
Comparing tradeoffs requires analysis of economic contribution of different sectors, jointly and individually

6. SACOG Specialty Crop Study
Three-part study to establish the economic contribution of specialty crop agriculture to the 6-county Sacramento region
Components
Economic model of regional agriculture
Multiplier model of agricultural sectors (custom IMPLAN)
Direct, indirect, and total contribution
Producers, processors, distributors

7. Primary Farm Production
Economic model of regional production
All crops, input, output markets
Significant growth
Value per acre
Value per unit water
Value per worker

8. Multiplier Analysis
Multiplier: additional activity created by primary activity in each sector
Custom IMPLAN model of 6-county region
Default data limitations

9. Specialty Crop Agriculture Economic Contribution

10. Looking Forward Headwinds Tailwinds Other uncertainties
Sustainable groundwater management requirements (SGMA)
Regulations: labor rates, irrigated lands, air emissions
Drought and competing demands for limited irrigation water supplies
Regional differences
Tailwinds
Strong market growth – healthy, high quality, crops that feed the world’s growing middle class
Comparative advantages in key crops
Variation in reliable water supplies
Other uncertainties
Sites Reservoir and other potential sources of additional irrigation water supply
Delta tunnels

11. Thank You
Contact info: Duncan MacEwan ERA Economics, LLC On the web: