1. Alberto Zezza Gero Carletto Benjamin Davis
Moving Away from Poverty A Spatial Analysis of Poverty and Migration in Albania
Alberto Zezza Gero Carletto Benjamin Davis
Presented by
Talip Kilic
DECRG - PO, World Bank
Tirana, 10 June 2008

2. Objective Explore the poverty migration nexus Methodology
Spatial relationship
Differentiate by types of migration
Methodology
Estimate district & commune migration flows
Produce migration maps and compare to poverty maps

3. Outline Background Results/Maps Conclusions
Absorption/Expulsion Indices
Comparison with Poverty Maps
Different Levels of Geo-Disaggregation
Conclusions
Theory, descriptives and methodology are described in the paper. The presentation will focus on the results.

4. Background Poverty Migration 25.4% below poverty line
Highest incidence in rural areas and the North-East
Migration
International
600,000+ permanent; plus temporary/seasonal
Internal
RuralUrban & UrbanUrban (Tirana and Coast)

5. Migration Typologies Mostly internal: North East – Mountain
Internal receivers & international senders: Tirana, Coast, Korce
International outflows: South, Malesi e Madhe, Kucove

6. Data & Methodology
Data: 1989 & 2001 Population and Housing Censuses & 2002 Poverty Map (Small Area Est.)
Population balancing equation:
Expulsion index: Outflow/Pop89
District level
Internal
International
Absorption index: Inflow/Pop01
District & commune level

8. Expulsion Poverty

9. Expulsion International Internal
Poverty

10. Migration flows

11. Absorption Poverty

12. Absorption Poverty

13. Log consumption expenditure
Simple correlations
Poverty headcount
Log consumption expenditure
District level
Expulsion
Total
-0.10
0.22
Internal
0.43
-0.48
International
-0.54
0.73
Absorption
-0.24
0.30
Commune level
-0.22
0.16

14. Tirana Inflow Poverty
35% + New residents in the poorest areas!

15. Conclusions/1 Welfare and location important determinants
Internal ≠International
Poverty: Push factor for internal, constraint to international?
Fight poverty at source!
Urban: poverty higher among recent immigrants

16. Conclusions (Cont’d) Further research: Causality Sequencing
Return migration