1. Gabriel Granco Department of Geography
Is Sugarcane a new driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Savanna?
Gabriel Granco
Department of Geography

2. Goals
Brief description of the drivers of Sugarcane expansion to the Brazilian Savanna
Demonstration of Sugarcane expansion and Land Use Change on the Brazilian Savanna
Hífen no primeiro tópico

3. Overview Part I Problem Methods and Sources Part II Drivers Land Use
Preliminary Conclusions
Grifados
Conclusions

4. Problem: Alternative to Fossil Fuel
Use of fossil fuel has serious consequences
Need to find alternative fuel
Sugarcane ethanol is the best alternative at the moment!
Reduces 60% - 80% of greenhouse gases compared to gasoline
Price competitive
Established production in Brazil
Brazil has land to expand its production
New problem: Does the expansion of sugarcane affect the Land Use and Land Cover of the Brazilian Savanna?
grifado

5. Method and Sources Method: Literature Review and Data Analysis.
Data sources:
Key informant interview (CEO of Mills, Farmers, CEO of COOP)
Agricultural Census (IBGE)
Remote Sensing – Imagery Interpretation Canasat Project, INPE
Grifado
sources

6. Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil is not new!!!
First Blend Mandate in Brazil – 1933.
Thousand m3
Oil Crisis
Proalcool
Ethanol Car
Blend Mandate = Ethanol produced to control sugar prices
Oil Crisis = Ethanol gain importance, BR wants to reduce its dependence to imported oil
Proalcool = Gov. program to stimulated production of ethanol. Financed new mills and distilleries, and expansion of sugarcane area
SP was the main benefited with this policy, and established as the main producer
Source: Ipeadata; ANP; UNICA. Elaborated: Author

7. São Paulo Consolidation
2012
21% of State area
Technology
Market
Mills
Flex-Fuel Cars
Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE.

8. Socio-Environmental Problems
A common harvest practice is to burn the sugarcane field; the burning endangers wildlife and the air pollution affects urban population; After the burn, cane-cutters go to the field and cut the sugarcane. Cane-cutters are exploited and suffers several health issues (from cut-accidents to death by exhaustion)

9. Mechanization and the competition for land increased operational cost
Only operates with slopes <12%
Expensive
Rural unemployment
São Paulo State intent to eliminate burning practice until 2017
Mechanized harvest avoid burning and cane-cutters.
SP: 34% 2006, to 73% 2012 mechanized harvest
However, this created a new social problem of unemployment of this workers.
Cor dos itens
Mechanization and the competition for land increased operational cost

10. Solution: New Frontier
Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul States
Part of the Brazilian Savanna
Traditional producers of soybeans, corn, and cattle
Cerrado:
Good agricultural conditions, after correcting the soil. Terrain Plain, rain (one rain season, other dry season), soil allows mechanization

11. Attractiveness of the New Frontier
Investments in roads and ethanol pipeline
Fiscal Incentives: tax postponement or exemption
Land Prices per hectare, 2012
São Paulo
$ 17,391
Mato Grosso do Sul
$ 8,695
Goiás
$ 9,565
Roads, investiment to connect the producing region to markets, Ethanoldute connecting goias to SP
Fiscal Incentives: States govt concede tax exemption for sugarcane industry. Municipalities also do similar. They want to have the industry installed on their area. Expectation of more employment and have a more dynamic economy.
Land Prices: Land is cheaper iin GO and MS.
Source: Agrianual, 2013

12. Expansion Goiás 2005 202.5 thousand hectares 2012
State level it does’nt show, all uses expanded their area (except natural vegetation)
Studies show that sugarcane grew over pasture and crop   
Sugarcane Area
Difference
2011
Sugarcane
Soybean
Corn
Mato Grosso do Sul
495,821
343,079
-144,658
353,259
Goiás
697,541
460,264
76,875
263,735
210,482
162,093
-33,762
92,470
161,590
101,020
-36,000
-16,320
Source: Canasat

13. Land Use

14. Expansion Mato Grosso do Sul 2005 139.1 thousand hectares 2012
Source: Canasat

15. Land Use

16. Preliminary conclusions:
Is Sugarcane a driver of LUC? Yes!
Sugarcane is changing the land use on Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul
What is driving Sugarcane expansion:
Consolidation of São Paulo;
Land price;
Flat land;
Technology development;
Growing market

17. More information: ggranco@ksu.edu
Questions
More information:
Acknowledgement: NSF project Collaborative Research: Land Change in Brazil's Cerrado: Ethanol and Sugarcane Expansion at the Farm and Industry Scale

18. Expansion Goiás 2005 202.5 thousand hectares 2012
State level it does’nt show, all uses expanded their area (except natural vegetation)
Studies show that sugarcane grew over pasture and crop   
Sugarcane Area
Difference
2011
Sugarcane
Soybean
Corn
Mato Grosso do Sul
495,821
343,079
-144,658
353,259
Goiás
697,541
460,264
76,875
263,735
210,482
162,093
-33,762
92,470
161,590
101,020
-36,000
-16,320
Source: Canasat

19. Expansion Mato Grosso do Sul 2005 139.1 thousand hectares 2012
Source: Canasat

20. County level data
Fiscal incentives
Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE

21. County level data
Fiscal incentives
Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE

22. Understanding dLUC dynamic for sugarcane expansion in the South-central region of Brazil over the period of 2000 – 2009.
Adami et al. 2012