1. Copenhagen 31 January 2008
Wind energy potential in Europe Methodology Hans Eerens MNP Netherlands

2. This study
Focus EEA-31;
Focus on land availability & technology development
GIS approach
Final results:
Wind power density map (based on ECMWF wind fields)
- Onshore
Offshore
Wind energy potential for 2020 and (wind power density combined with wind turbines technology assumptions)
Cost-supply curve per country for
Analyze effect of restrictions (i.e. NATURA2000/CDDA, social/regulatory)
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

3. Wind energy potential
What determines the potential of wind energy, both onshore and offshore?
Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor;
Area availability (km2);
Power density of wind park (MW/km2);
Potential = Power Density * Available Area * Load Factor
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

4. Wind electricity costs
What determines the wind electricity costs?
Costs;
Isp turbine (f(Rated power);
O&M;
Installation costs;
Overhead costs (concession, Environmental Impact Assessment);
Distribution costs (not included);
Grid integrated costs (back up, spinning reserve, discarded/storage costs) (not included);
Output;
Wind resource
Other assumptions
Interest rate
Economic lifetime turbine
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

5. Previous global study; land-use constraints
Wind park
infrastructure, e.g.
roads
ar, technical losses
Power density (MW km-2)
Land-use function
(too much interference)
Bioreserves (protected)
Social constraints
Wind regime (unattractive)
Altitude (Elevation too high)
Urban Area (population too dense) MW
Available area (km2)
Hoogwijk, Utrecht, 2004
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

6. environmental-compatible wind energy potential
Potential for Renewables… see De Noord et al, Potentials and costs for renewable electricity generation adapted from Andre Wakker, ECN
environmental-compatible wind energy potential
Theoretical potential
ECMWF 40-year reanalyzed, wind speed data (2006), CORINE landcover, workshop 2006/7 recommendations
Sensitivities
Technical potential
e.g. Wind turbine characteristics
Realistic potential
planning, public acceptance,
market barriers, environmental contraints:
Lead times, growth rates of technology, scenario assumptions: Climate action scenario EEA
Realisable
potential
Competition with substitutes e.g. fossil
Economic
potential
policies and subsidies, GREEN-X (Environment) model, Technical University Vienna
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

7. Theoretical potential
Technical potential
Unrestricted
Theoretical potential
Economic potential
Market potential
Wind resources
Available area
Technical conversion factors
Environmental and
visible constraints
Production costs
based on social discount rates
Production costs competing
technologies
Increased complexity
Onshore constraints:
- Economic: exclude areas with low wind speeds, <4 m/s
- Environmental/ social: excluding Natura 2000 and other natural designated areas;
Offshore constraints:
- Economic: excluding areas with low wind speeds, 5 m/s
- Technical: excluding very deep sea areas, >50m
- Social: a maximum of 4% of offshore areas 0-10 km from coast, 10% of the offshore area at km from coast and 10% of offshore area at km from coast used for wind developments.
- Technical: 4% of offshore area >50 km from shore.
- Market barrier: As a maximum, 25% of domestic electricity demand can be fulfilled by wind energy, due to system: integration issues
Environmentally and
socially compatible
based on private discount rates
Average electricity prices
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

8. Wind energy potential
ECMWF data from the 40 year reanalyzed data project (finished january 2006):
Windspeed (high time (6hr)- and spatial resolution (~22x22km))  scaled to 80 m height, using specific rougness parameters for the CORINE LCD data set (250x250m)  annual average wind speed
Combine wind energy density curve with wind turbine assumptions (onshore, ofshore, )
Include cost assumptions wind turbines
Combination deliver costs-supply curve for each EU country (onshore) and offshore for countries with a coastal zone.
Define potential for subsets (i.e. NATURA2000/CDA, agricultural areas,..)
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

9. Assumption: summary results
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

10. Wind energy potential Part 2:
Estimate restricted land-area potential based on bottom-up estimates from Denmark/Netherlands, Germany  generates current wind potential for various CLC/wind classes
Use current situation as minimum “saturation values” for wind energy potential for countries with less progress in the use of wind energy
Limit potential to 20-25% of electricity use (higher costs assumptions required to facilitate spinning reserve and grid expansion)
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

11. Methodology: uncertainties
Check wind field data against measure wind speed (~5000 stations)
Volume effects on costs-assumptions (especially should we incorporate global learning effects or European learning effects only)
Do we limit wind energy as percentage of electricity generation e.g. 20% at country/european scale
Hans Eerens, Work Programme

12. Thank You!
Hans Eerens, Work Programme