1. Sustaining Marine Resources in a Changing Climate
Execution Focus Area
Sustaining Marine Resources in a Changing Climate
Ned Cyr, Roger Griffis (NMFS)
Krisa Arzayus (NESDIS)
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

2. The Challenge 1: Impacts and Risk
Climate change is already impacting marine ecosystems and the communities & economies that depend on them.
These impacts are expected to increase.
There is much at risk domestically and internationally (food, jobs, revenue, human health, security, heritage etc).
Food: 1.5 billion people (world-wide)
Fisheries Jobs: million (world-wide), 1.3 million (US)
Fisheries economies: $200 B in sales/income impacts (US)
Coastal economies: 60 % GDP (US)
Transportation: Shipping, commerce, safety
International relations and security issues
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

3. The Challenge 2: Growing Demand
Diverse audience for marine-climate products and services
Living marine resource scientists and managers
Federal govt (NOAA, USFWS, USGS, EPA)
State govts (35 State Fish and Wildlife Agencies)
Indigenous govts (Tribal Fish and Wildlife Agencies)
Academic partners (NSF, Sea Grant, universities)
Ocean use scientists and managers (DOI, DOD, DOT, DHS-USCG)
Ocean-dependent industries (energy, aquaculture, fishing, tourism, shipping)
Ocean-dependent communities & economies (local, state, regional)
Increasing demand for regional products and services
What has changed? Why has it changed?
How will it change? When will it change?
How prepare? How reduce impacts?
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

4. Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems
Climate Changes
Physical Chemical Impacts
Biological Impacts
Social Economic Impacts
International Impacts
 temperature
 sea surface temperature
Δ distribution
Δ ocean dependent activities (location, timing, type)
Δ trans-boundary species
 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Δ stratification
Δ abundance
Δ highly migratory pecies
 extreme weather events
Δ phenology
Δ revenues & economics
Δ circulation
Δ survivorship
 partnerships
Δ industry diversity
 incidence of hypoxia
Δ productivity
Δ treaties
Δ salinity
 incidence of disease
Δ transportation
Δ subsistence use
 sea level rise
 invasive species
Δ security
Δ human health risks
 ocean acidification
Mitigation Efforts
↓ emissions,  sequestration
Adaptation Efforts
Reduce existing stressors, manage for resilience, seek beneficial opportunitities etc

5. Observed or Projected Climate-related Changes in U. S
Observed or Projected Climate-related Changes in U.S. Marine Ecosystems A
Hypoxia
Hypoxia

6. Shifting Fish Distributions with Warming Ocean Temperatures
Eastern U.S. Waters (Cape Hatteras to Canadian Border)
Over past 40 yrs:
60% major fish stocks have shifted distributions poleward (1 mile yr-1) and/or deeper (0.8 ft yr-1).
Species shifting at different rates ( miles poleward)
Also changes in abundance, phenology, species assemblages
Why changing? Future changes?
Shifting Fish Distributions with Warming Ocean Temperatures Eastern U.S. Waters (Cape Hatteras to Canadian border)
Northwest Atlantic has been warming over last years
Scientists hypothesized this would lead to shifts in distribution of fish species nearly 20 years ago.
Recent studies support this and confirm these shifts are already happening
60% fished stocks have shifted poleward (1.6 km yr-1) and/or deeper (0.25 m yr-1) over past 40 years.
(right panels) Red Hake is one of the species showing shifts – upper panel earlier distribution averaged over
Lower panel showing major distribution patterns over last 20 years ( ) – and major shifts northward
Winners and losers? Cod vs. the Atlantic Croaker
Southern Species like Atlantic Croaker May Become Common in New England Waters; some stocks may nearly disappear from U.S. waters as they move farther offshore
Subsequent work is beginning to model how the abundance of these species might be affected and what this might mean for fisheries ie will there be some species that decline or move into Canadian waters (losers from US fisher perspective), and will there be some species that thrive in the new climate conditions (winners?)
Results suggest that colder water species like cod are expected to be largely lost to US ecosystem (move into Canadian waters)
And warmer water species like Atlantic Croaker are expected to thrive and perhaps be able to sustain larger fisheries across greater areas of the east coast…..
Picture is of Atlantic Cod – they’ll love the future!!!
Red Hake
Source: Nye JA et al. (2009), Hare et al. (2010)
DRAFT - NOAA's Climate Adaptation Team

7. Will Some Species Thrive In A Changing Climate?
Projected Increase in Atlantic Croaker Populations
PROJECTIONS:
Increased juvenile recruitment.
km northward shift in distribution.
60-100% increased biomass.
30-100% increased maximum sustainable yield.
Potential increased fisheries?
FIG. 7. Atlantic croaker fishery yield as a function of fishing
mortality rate based on the temperature-dependent stock–
recruitment model and ensemble multimodel mean of three
climate scenarios (A1B, B1, and commit). Yield curves are
presented as lines; maximum sustainable yields (MSY) and
fishing rates at maximum sustainable yields (FMSY) are
indicated by triangles. Shading indicates 95% confidence
intervals around multimodel mean.
Triangles = fishing rates at maximum sustainable yields (FMSY) .
From Hare et al 2010.

8. How will fish catch change by 2100?
Cheung et al. 2009: Redistribution of Fish Catch by Climate Change. Global Change Biology

9. The Challenge 3: Lack of integrated products and services
Why did it change?
RESEARCH
What has changed?
OBSERVATIONS
How will it change?
PROJECTIONS
climate
oceans
Biological resources
Social & economic
climate
oceans
Biological resources
Social & economic
climate
oceans
Biological resources
Social & economic
Decision Makers
Why change?
Future change?
What action to take?
What changed?
Products services
Products services
Products services
Spatial scales: regional to basin
Time scales: annual to decadal
Fishery management plans
Protected species & area management
Public & private investments

10. Outline from the Vision and Strategy Document
Marine resource managers and other decision-makers will have access to, and sufficient knowledge to apply, best available information to manage large marine ecosystems in a changing climate.
Strategy:
Build and sustain core set of products & services:
coordinated observations,
targeted research &
integrated physical-biological models.
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

11. Key Accomplishments
Delivering ocean data & products (Global Ocean Observing System):
SST products based on satellite data and in-situ validation network.
Salinity data from Argo (to 2000m depth) to assess salinity variability.
Continuous high resolution regional observations from remote, moored and ship-board platforms (Bering Sea, Calif Current etc).
Growing ocean acidification observation network.
2. Advancing assessments & projections:
New modeling tools (e.g., Earth System Models, Cobalt)
Regional projections (Bering Sea, Calif Current, North Atlantic)
Rapid assessment protocol – fisheries climate vulnerability
Building understanding and capacity:
Targeted research on ocean-climate linkages (NMFS, OAR, NOS)
New support for application of climate info in marine management (COCA, RISA)
Needs Assessment (Climate Ready Marine Resource Management)
The global ocean observing system routinely provides ocean condition data and products for ocean temperature, salinity, carbon, sea-level, sea-surface height, velocities, air-sea fluxes, and more. This information is critical to weather and climate predictions as well as estimates of the evolving ocean environment. SST products based on satellite measurements and validated by an extensive in-situ network continue  to be produced During the past year surface salinity data from the Aquarius mission has been distributed providing new insight into ocean surface conditions and processes (not NOAA-specific) Salinity information from Argo (to 2000m depth) is now the subject of research efforts to discern salinity variability signals. Routine glider and mooring measurements in the southern California Current region (from the coast to over 500km offshore) have now been continued for over 5 years and provide for the first time continuous observations with high space and time resolution of a coastal ocean and ecosystem environment that experiences climate-driven variability. Challenges: Do we know the requirements for observing the marine environment (physical, biogeochemical, etc) that are relevant for marine ecosystems? Observing and/or providing (through mixture of obs and modeling) marine environmental conditions with sufficient resolution (in space and time) to enable skillful marine ecosystem predictions
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

12. Focus Area Organization
Director, NMFS/Science & Tech (Chair)
Director, OAR/CPO
Director, OAR/GFDL
Director, OAR/ESRL
Director, OAR/PMEL & AOML
Director, NESDIS/NODC
Director, NESDIS/NCDC
Director, NWS/CPC
Director, NOS/NCCOS
Executive Working Group
* PROPOSED
Roger Griffis, NMFS/Science & Tech
Project Lead
Working Group
Project Plan
Regional
Pilots
Execution
Agreements
Advisory Group & external partners
Last Updated: 5/8/2012

13. Key Scientific and Technical Issues
What are the critical observing requirements (physical, biogeochemical, etc) for early warnings and projections of climate impacts in marine systems?
What are the key physical, chemical and biological indicators to track?
How integrate observations and modeling with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to enable skillful marine ecosystem predictions?
What are the best modeling tools/approaches to provide regional scale projections of climate impacts on marine resources?
What changes & impacts have already happened?
How well can we project climate impacts on species or users?
What spatial and temporal resolution is most useful to decision-makers – and can we deliver at these scales?
Can the resource management process incorporate and respond to information on past and future climate impacts?

14. Discussion with CWG
FOCUS AREA: Regional projections of climate impacts on marine resources
PRODUCT LINE:
Impact assessments (to date)
Risk assessments (outlooks, projections)
Spatial scale? Temporal scale? Species? Format?
ISSUES:
Integrating efforts across NOAA
Integrating efforts with non-NOAA partners (e.g., other feds, academia, regional ocean observing systems, state agencies)
Engaging decision makers
Engaging ocean-dependent sectors, users
Leveraging federal, state and non-govt science enterprise
July 30-31, 2012 – Climate Working Group Meeting

15. Backup
06/06/2012

16. ?? Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate Bering Sea Pollock
2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment 5
NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1
Help? 3 2

17. Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ??
2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment
Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment 5
NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1
Help? 3 2

18. Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ??
2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment
Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents 5
NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1
Help? 3 2

19. Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ??
2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment
Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents
Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning 5
NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1
Help? 3 2

20. Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate ??
Council adopts SSC recommendation to reduce pollock harvest based on assessment and continuation of poor (warm) environmental conditions
2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment
Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents
Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning 5
NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1
Help? 3 2

21. Quota cut from 1.6 to 0.8 million tons
Managing Fisheries In Changing Climate
Quota cut from 1.6 to 0.8 million tons
Council adopts SSC recommendation to reduce pollock harvest based on assessment and continuation of poor (warm) environmental conditions
2005 moored temperature and zooplankton data reveal unfavorable ocean conditions for recruitment
Stock assessment model reveals low/declining recruitment
NPCREP warning of poor environmental conditions reported in assessment documents
Fishery Management Council’s Science and Statistical Committee (SSC) receives warning 5
NPCREP - Mooring 2 4 1
Help? 3 2