1. Modeling Zero-Carbon Growth
Assessing Technological
Options and Governance Requirements
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
"Climate Change and Development“ Policy Workshop, in preparation of the World Development Report 2010, Berlin – September 2008

2. Global Change Challenges
Sustainable access to energy and food
(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)
Energy and ecosystems services
Security and reliability of systems
Deep CO2 and GHG reductions
Investment in R&D and deployment

3. Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad
© 2007 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

4. © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Food for a Week, Germany
© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

5. Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
~$100/tCO2

6. Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
<$25/tCO2
~$100/tCO2

7. Global GDP Density

8. Global Build-Up Area

9. Global Arable Land

10. Global Bioenergy Land

11. Energy and Food Land Conflicts

12. Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0.1 1 10
Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen
PV costs (1985) Yen per W
1973: 30,000 y =
4.0 –
0.54x R 2
= 0.989
1995: 640
Applied
R&D
Investment
Basic
1976: 16,300
1980: 4,900
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0.1 1 10
Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen
PV costs (1985) Yen per W
1973: 30,000 y =
4.0 –
0.54x R 2
= 0.989
1995: 640
Applied
R&D
Investment
Basic
1976: 16,300
1980: 4,900
Cost
reduction ~ $
1985: 1,200
1985: 1,200
~ $1 109
Data source:
Data Source: Watanabe, 1997
Watanabe, 1995 &1997
Grübler, 2002

13. Ethanol Learning Curve
Source: Goldemberg, 2008

14. Technology Learning in SRES

15. A Vision of a Future Energy System
Source: EU, 2002

16. Confronting the Challenges of Energy for
Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis
and its international partners present