1. Hazards Planning and Risk Management
Lecture No. 18
Natural Disasters
Fall 2017
US – Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water

2. Learning Objective Natural Hazards
What are they?
Where do they occur?
Why do they occur?
Consequences of their occurrence?
Source: lecture 1 introduction to natural hazards.ppt 2
E. J. Peters 20110 2

3. Reading Material
Dr. Cees Westen (ITC) Guide Book 01 & 03 (pdf provided at wordpress)

4. All communities are vulnerable to disasters
In every person’s lifetime, at least one natural hazard will likely have some impact on their life.
E. J. Peters 2010

6. Why should be concerned about hazards?
On average, about 150,000 people are killed worldwide by natural hazards each year
Globally, losses (both in terms of death and economic costs) are increasing because of the exponential increase in human population
More people are living in areas where hazards occur more frequently and often with greater severity.
Source: E. J. Peters 20110

7. Hazard Prediction When, where, why, and how natural hazards occur?
The first step in minimizing hazards’ impacts
To design forecasting and early warning systems
Speed of onset plays an important role in hazard prediction

8. Speed of Onset
The time of onset is the lapse of time from the occurrence of the first precursor to the intensity peak of the hazardous event.
Sudden onset: little or no warning, minimal time to prepare
Example: earthquake, tsunami, cyclone, volcano, etc.
Slow onset: adverse event slow to develop;
first the situation develops;
the second level is an emergency;
the third level is a disaster.
Example: drought, civil strife, epidemic, etc.
Source: Disaster Management Version 01

9. Time of onset of a flood is represented by the delay between the rainfall and the discharge peaks

10. Where, What Disaster may occur?
Earthquakes occur along active tectonic plate margins
Volcanoes occur along subduction zones (e.g. around the margins of the Pacific plate, so-called ‘Ring of Fire’)
Tsunamis occur in the neighborhood of active plate margins, but also at a considerable distance from these as tsunami waves can travel over large distances.
Tropical cyclones (in North America called ‘hurricanes’ and in Asia called ‘typhoons’) occur in particular zones indicated with green areas in the map.
Landslides occur in hilly and mountainous regions.
Westen Guidebook 01 Introduction to Risk Assessment

11. Westen Guidebook 01 Introduction to Risk Assessment

13. Disasters are Increasing Worldwide?
Why?
Increase in vulnerability
Factors leading to higher number of hazardous events

14. Increased Vulnerability
Factors:
Rapid increase of the world population
Large urbanization rate (related to the population pressure)
Human settlements on areas that are susceptible to natural hazards (related to the population pressure)
Most of the world population lives in the hazardous regions, either in coastal zones, or in seismically active regions
Westen Guidebook 01

15. Developing countries with lower insurance coverage
Factors (Continu..)
Development of highly sensitive technologies and the growing susceptibility of modern industrial societies to breakdowns in their infrastructure
Developing countries with lower insurance coverage
Westen Guidebook 01

16. Frequency of Destructive Events
Related to atmospheric extremes is increasing
Climate change is negatively related with the occurrence of natural disasters
Source: Westen Guidebook 01
The frequency of destructive events related to atmospheric extremes (such as floods, drought, cyclones, and landslides) is also increasing

17. Domino Effect
One type of hazard can trigger a domino effect of disasters
For example, a drought may lead to a famine, which in turn leads to civil conflict resulting in a mass displacement of the population. Another example includes flooding which may force people to seek refuge across international borders upsetting the balance of needs and resources and weakening the ability of the government to receive the added population growth. This in turn may lead to civil strife and disorder. Such compound hazards and disasters need not occur sequentially; they can occur simultaneously. (Reading 1)

18. DISASTER AND DEVELOPMENT

19. Disasters and Development
Disasters and development are closely linked
Disasters can both
destroy development initiatives and
create development opportunities
Development schemes can both
increase vulnerability and
decrease vulnerability
Source: Disaster Management Version 01

20. Relationships between Disasters and Development
Disasters set back development programing, destroying years of development initiatives.
Rebuilding after a disaster provides significant opportunities to initiate development programs
Development programs can increase an area’s susceptibility to disasters. OR
Development programs can be designed to decrease the susceptibility to disasters and their negative consequences
Source: Disaster Management Version 01
Disasters can improve the atmosphere in favor of change and create a rationale to establish development programs such as job training, housing construction and land reform. However, poor management of the relief and rehabilitation responses may have severe negative implications for development for years to come, and may even increase vulnerability to future hazards.
Vulnerabilities caused by development
Although in aggregate terms development will usually contribute to a reduction in vulnerability to natural disasters, any development activity
may substantially increase particular types of vulnerability. E.g. coastal zone development, multistory buildings on hazard prone zones, tourist resorts, deforestation for development purposes may lead to soil erosion and landslides, dams and irrigation schemes (displace natural habitat, excessive flooding, dam failure), industries attract people to live around exposed to pollutants and industrial hazards, livestock development - overgrazing – loss of vegetation cover – near desertification, agricultural projects preferring cash crops on staple crops. etc. Refer Text from source page 29.
Therefore, include risk assessment as an integral part of development programs planning and evaluation.

21. Disasters in Developing Countries
According to UN Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO) coordinator, approximately 90% of all reported natural disasters occur in the Third World countries
Sudden disasters may cause chronicle sufferings in developing countries
Creeping hazards are also of special relevance for developing countries
Creeping hazards: desertification, drought, deforestation or/and poor agricultural practices – result in – soil erosion, degradation of catchment area leading to modifications in the hydrological regime, reduced natural storage capacity, diminished water levels and frequent widespread and flash floods. 22

22. Disasters in Developed Countries
Earthquakes in Italy and Japan
Hurricanes and tornados in USA
Approximately 5% of Japan’s national budget is being invested in disaster preparedness
Most regions are less prone because of better geographical locations and climatological conditions
Less constrained in human and material sources to employ methods for disaster prevention and mitigation
Due to Japans great national effort damage caused by disasters relative to the standard of living is decreasing and therefore Japan is absent from the list of nations where disaster causing economic loss is more than 1% GNP.
On the other hand, industrialized countries are responsible for greater global changing that are disaster causing. 23

23. Disaster Events Databases
EM-DAT database:
Glidenumber by Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC):
UNDP website:
others

24. Number of Reported disasters – EMDAT database
Westen Guidebook 01

25. The Problems with databases?
Today key problems with disaster data remain the lack of standardized collection methodologies and definitions (UNISDR and CRED)
For natural disasters during the last decade, data on deaths are missing in about 10 per cent of the disasters; around 20 per cent lack information on the total number of people affected, and about 70 percent do not cover economic damages.
Westen Guidebook 01
The figures therefore should be regarded as indicative.
UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction = UNISDR
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

26. Exercise

27. Pakistan Scenario Geography Climate
The country is geographically divided into three areas:
Northern highlands,
Indus river plains and
Balochistan plateau
Climate
Pakistan is a land of great climatic contrast
Low rainfall and extreme variations in rainfall
59.3% lands with less than 200 mm annual rainfall.
Southern slopes of the Himalayas and the sub mountainous : rainfall from 760 to 1270 mm.

28. Geographical cross section of Pakistan
Source:

29. Natural Disasters The range of natural hazards in Pakistan
Earthquake
Cyclone
Drought
Floods
Landslide
Human Induced Disasters

31. Source: http://www.preventionweb.net/countries/pak/data/

32. Major Natural Disasters in Pakistan 1935-2005
Check this table… 33

33. Vulnerability Index Source: NDMA
Source: NDMA

34. Discussion/Comment/Question