1. Erik.Ranheim@intertanko.com Manager Research and Projects
Shipbuilding capacity
Yokohama, 8/9 November 2004

2. Shipbuilding capacity
Shipyard contracting
S Korean lead
Contracting in 2003 highest since 1973
Shipyard capacity
Equal level in Japan S Korea and Europe
Increasing in all areas but Europe
S Korea’s capacity developing the strongest
Shipyard activity
At capacity level in S Korea, Japan and China
Shipbuilding prices
Increased by since
Peaking?
Won has an advantage
Notes
The world has ended up in a squeeze between too high growth in Asia in particular China, and tight supply of commodities. The demand has to be adapted to the supply of commodities and we now see that the supply of oil and other commodities in fact is limited.
Tanker built late eightie and early 90s may not have the same technical lifetime as the olds single hull VLCCS

3. Shipyards contracting
Korean
Japanese
m cgt
m cgt
Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
2,000 DWT and over
7 months moving average - Year Rate
Source: MSR, Denmark

4. Shipyards contracting
Europe
China
m cgt
m cgt
Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
2,000 DWT and over
7 months moving average - Year Rate
Source: MSR, Denmark

5. Current shipbuilding capacity by area - m cgt
Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: MSR, Denmark

6. Shipyards activity Japan S Korea m cgt m cgt Source: MSR, Denmark
Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: MSR, Denmark

7. Shipyards activity China Europe m cgt m cgt Source: MSR, Denmark Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: MSR, Denmark

8. Aframax price $/won Source: INTERTANKO Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: INTERTANKO

9. Aframax price $/Yen Source: INTERTANKO Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: INTERTANKO

10. Aframax price Yen/won Source: INTERTANKO Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: INTERTANKO

11. Yen/won to the $ Source: INTERTANKO Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
Source: INTERTANKO

12. VLCC spot and break-even rates
$/day
Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.