1. A bite of a history
It’s not good to make important decisions when someone is angry. So, you shouldn’t make this decision right now. All students have a free entrance to the University facilities. The sport centre is a University facility. And Annika is a student. So Annika does not need to pay for the entrance to the sport centre.

2. A bite of futurology 22.11.17 induction
29.11 abduction, analogy, a contrario,
6.12 slippery slope, from authority, ad hominem.
13.12 TEST
20.12
3.01
10.01
PRESENTATIONS + further elements of critical thinking

3. Induction (generalization) Abduction (causal reasoning)

4. Induction (generalization)
All five victims of a serial killer until now were young, well-educated white women. Therefore, one can expect that all his potential victims will belong to this group of women.
Since Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia went through recession recently, we can predict that all small countries will suffer from recession.

5. x1 is P and x1 is S x2 is P and x2 is S … xn is P and xn is S For every x, if x is P, than x is S P1: Sample S is a representative sample of Xs. P2: Proportion 1 of Xs in S are Y. CONCLUSION: Proportion 2 of Xs are Y.

6. How to induct? Choose a sample which is big enough.
Avoid bias (Be sure that cases in a sample are diverse to reflect the diversity of group).

7. A month-long poll conducted on people entering the Fitness First health club in Johnsonville found that people worked out on average twice, and sometimes three times a week. The study concluded that people in Johnsonville were very healthy.
Tony's first car was a Toyota. It was a very good car. His next car was also a Toyota, and he had very few problems with it. So when his friend Kate needed a car, he recommended a Toyota. Kate took Tony's advice and bought a Toyota, which she is still driving 7 years later. It has had only minor repairs in the course of tune-ups. Tony concludes that the Toyota is an excellent car, and decides never to drive any other car.

8. Abduction (causal reasoning)
P1: Fact F occurs P2: H is the most reliable explanation of F C: H holds true Why Janice is not in her office today? She must be sick. The British Pound’s rate decrease. And the most probable reason for this is because British economy looses its credibility. So, we may guess that British economy is no more credible for investors.

9. [P1] Although the living room window is open, there are no footprints outside, despite the softness of the ground after yesterday's rain.
[P2] The clasp on the box was not broken but opened with a key that had been hidden behind the clock.
[P3] No one heard the dog barking, so the dog did not bark.
[C] The crime was committed by someone in the house.

10. Tips for Young Abductivist
Check alternative hypotheses
Be sure your hypotesis is verifiable
(avoid apriorism)
Conform with facts
Watch out spurious correlations
In particular, avoid:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
Third cause fallacy

11. How is it possible, that after fifty years we still don’t know many critical details of assasination of President Kennedy? The answer is simple, if you only think about it – it was done by secret service in cooperation with powerful members of government, who have hidden all proofs of their own guilt.

12. Roosters crow just before the sun rises
Roosters crow just before the sun rises. Therefore, it seems that roosters crowing cause the sun to rise. It seems that every time empty beer cans are piled up in a car, an accident occurs. It seems that the excess weight and shape of the cans must cause other cars to want to crash into the victim's car.

13. Cargo cult

14. After his criminal record was disclosed, the local politician's standing dropped in the polls, and he lost the election to his opponent.
You really don’t know how Bruce got rich? There is only one way of making such money in such a short time – drugs’ trading.

15. General causal reasoning
PREMISE 1 : X is correlated with Y. PREMISE 2: The correlation between X and Y is not due to chance. PREMISE 3: The correlation between X and Y is not due to some mutual cause Z. PREMISE 4: Y is not the cause of X. CONCLUSION: X causes Y