1. Consortium October 6, 2016

2. Air Stagnation Advisory Criterion Graphics
Create products based on NWS criteria for Air Stagnation Advisories
Different offices have different criteria

7. Info Web Page: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/airstagnation/
Rob and Jacob have decided they like the f3d graphic (3.6) in the Nov 27-Nov 30 case and 3.4 in the Dec 31-Jan 6 case. Dave is aslo going to produce the duration-dependent graphic (since that's what actually meets the full air stagnation advisory criteria for the NWS).

8. One the fly meteograms, time heights and soundings are fixed
Can choose any location you want.

9. On the fly 4/3 km graphics generator
For use off-campus, you need to login with User: trajectory Password: 7rajectory1

10. Mt. Rainier 24-h Precip Example

11. Trajectories: - all trajectories are now displaying terrain height and trajectory height - improved run speed (saved 45 minutes)

13. Evaluation of WRF 3.8.1 (we are using 3.7.1) Wind a bit worse

17. Bottom Line: 8. 1 does not produce better verification than 7. 1
Bottom Line: 8.1 does not produce better verification than Maybe worse. At this point, no reason to switch

18. Additional Computer Resources
New, higher speed infiniband switch (56 gbits per second between nodes)
Added 8 nodes of 24 cores each.
Total of 432 cores (processors) on SAGE
We have been testing the new nodes and have been having problems (sudden failures), odd changes in performance with different numbers of cores.
We now believe we have a hardware problem.

19. New Domain
Have been testing domain, but the sudden failures have slowed us down.
Hopefully, with new memory card, can move forward next week.

27. Timing (suspect because bad memory)
Using 408 out of 432 cores, the new domain rain 30 minutes slower than current domain
Will rerun timing tests after memory fixed and attempt to use more cores (may have to make slight changes in domain)
Other things to try (nestdown approach with ONLY running 4/3 km domain)
Split domain

28. 6-month Strategic Plan October: November December January Feb-March
figure out the problems with the new cluster
Try alternative approaches if necessary to resolve problems and to speed up.
Reduce number of nests ( km)
Nestdown 1.3 km from 4 km saved every ten minutes.
November
Test new physics (MYNN PBL-–same as used in HRRR), new Morrison P3 microphysics scheme (cheaper and better)
December
Upgrade physics if beneficial
January
Evaluate computer resources and approaches for a 4-km ensemble of the region, using IC and physics uncertainty--could do in off hours.
Feb-March
Start constructing ensemble.

29. A Northwest Consortium for Regional Climate Modelling
Cliff Mass
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington

30. Society needs reliable information on the regional implications of climate change
Infrastructure decisions are being made now for assets that will last well into the current century when the impact of GW will be substantial
Adaptation planning
Motivation for mitigation efforts

31. Bottom Line of the Talk
There is only one viable method for producing the required regional climate predictions: dynamical downscaling of global climate models But to do this right, there is much that is required.

32. Requirements
The use of large numbers of global model simulations (GCMs) to explore initial condition, model, and physics uncertainty.
Filtering to remove GCMs unable to simulate realistically the current climate
Use of sufficient resolution in the regional climate models (minimum km grid spacing) to get realistic NW circulations
Use of an appropriate nested domain structure of the regional simulations (MUST include the Rockies with sufficient resolution)
Must have sophisticated post-processing to reduce biases and get reliable probabilities.

33. The Challenge: Can We Do This Right, Together?
Combine regional resources and personnel so that together we can do what one group cannot accomplish alone.
There is a precedent for such combination of resources: the Northwest Modeling Consortium.

34. Many of the technical issues are very similar….

35. Dynamical Downscaling Not Statistical Downscaling
Only fully dynamical downscaling can hope to simulate the non-linearities and complexities of the future climate response.
Examples:
Location and distribution of precipitation changes as stability changes.
Onshore flow and coastal marine clouds enhanced by greater onshore pressure gradients
Albedo feedbacks as snow melts.

36. Echam-5 versus WRF

38. Dozens of downscaled GCM runs not 1-3
There is substantial uncertainty in the GCM simulations and a handful of simulations can not get a handle on the inherent uncertainties.
Sources: physics uncertainty, initial state uncertainty, emission uncertainty, and many more.
GCMs produce a wide variety of local solutions

40. Over the Northwest, the simulations must have a grid spacing of a least km grid spacing Based on over 10 years of twice-daily simulations at km at the University of Washington, with objective verification

42. 150 km versus 12 km

43. Integration of ancillary physics/applications (e
Integration of ancillary physics/applications (e.g, hydro, coastal ocean, air quality) to create a total environmental modeling system

45. The Northwest Climate Modeling Consortium: A Proposal
Combine resources of regional government entities, state and Federal agencies, foundations, academic institutions, tribes, and other to create the most robust climate predictions possible.
Similar to the NW modeling consortium, decisions could be make by contributing stakeholders
Amazon has provided a modest amount to start this.

46. Tasks
Acquire or secure sufficient computer resources for regional climate downscaling and to run additional GCM simulations.
Develop GCM filtering approaches.
Acquire CMIP-5 (6) GCM runs and run/acquire additional simulations.
Run large numbers of regional climate simulations

48. Tasks Run applications models (e.g., hydro)
Optimally post-process and combine regional climate simulations to provide robust probabilistic guidance

49. Products
Model grids and custom products will be available to supporting stakeholders and their designees.
Grids can also be made available to regional climate impacts group (Oregon State, UW CIG, etc.)

50. The END

51. The End