1. Illustrations of research development in the Niger river basin at PIK
IRD / PIK meeting
Samuel Fournet
Monday 1th of October2014

2. Illustrations of research development in the Niger river basin at PIK Outline
PIK collaborative project involvements in the Niger river basin
Brief case study characteristics: Niger river, Upper Niger, Inner Delta
Research outcomes
SWIM model settings (reservoir, inundaton module)
River basin planning, climate change settings
Water economic trade-offs assessment for the Upper Niger basin
Experimental hydrological forecast system
Potential future research applications
Land use change scenario settings
Regional food security assessment

3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
founded in 1992
200 scientific staff guests
Fundings: institutionnal 8.6 M. €
additionnal M. €
Research Domain II
110 employees, 42 third funded projects
Fred Stefan Samuel Valentin
Hattermann Liersch Fournet Aich
Research domains:
I. Earth System Analysis
II. Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities
III. Sustainable Solutions
IV. Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods
Studying relevant effects of climate and global change on environmental and societal structures.
Global aspects of land use, trade offs, freshwater, bioenergy, development with global and regional focus.
How sensitive are specific sectors (in selected regions) to climate and global change

4. Former and current research project involvement
Enhancing the role of wetlands in integrated water resources management for twinned river basins in EU, Africa and South America in support of EU Water Initiatives
Africa at meso-scale: Adaptive and integrated tools and strategies on natural resources management
Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming
Early warning and forecasting systems to predict
climate related drought vulnerability and risks in Africa

5. Collaboration with Wetlands International
Sahelian Sub-Regional Office in Mali opened in 1998
Collaborative research projects experiences
Long term partnership in the Upper Niger River Basin
with Niger Basin Authority
with national partners (government structures, national NGOs, Local Authorities, and local populations)
national research institutions (IER and CNRST)
as well as foreign research institutions (Altenburg & Wymenga, Institute for Environmental Studies, IVM)
Chris Baker
Head of Programme
Water Resources
Bakary Kone
Director
Mali Office

6. I. Case study introduction Niger river
3rd longest river in Africa watercourse 4200km
9th biggest fluvial system area 2.1M.km2
~ 25% located in Mali
9 countries Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Nigeria
Major cities Tembakounda, Bamako, Timbuktu, Niamey, Lokoja, Onitsha
4 climate zones
Humid tropical zone
Tropical zone with dry seasons
Sahelian zone
Desert zone
30 to 50% water losses at the outlet
Climate zones note
Desert Zone
Africa’s desert climates receive little precipitation and in the case of the Sahara, daytime temperatures can be extremely high. At Faya-Largeau, Chad, the daily maximum temperature for June averages 42 degrees Celsius (WMO n.d.). With little cloud cover, humidity or coastal influence in the Sahara, the average daily temperature range is as much as 15 to 20 degrees Celsius. Average annual precipitation is scant, exceeding 100 mm only in a few areas and tending to be below 25 mm for much of the Sahara.
Sahelian Zone
Only about 250 to 500 mm of rain falls in the Sahelian climate zone. With considerable seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall, the potential for rain-fed agriculture is very low. Average annual temperatures in areas adjacent to the Sahara and in the Horn of Africa range from 26 to 29 degrees Celsius, with somewhat cooler temperatures in elevated areas. Before the spring rains, daily maximum temperatures often reach 40 degrees Celsius.
Tropical Zone With Dry Seasons
To the north and south of the humid tropical climate zone are zones of tropical climate, characterised by long dry seasons, where precipitation and temperature are more seasonal. Here, dry seasons last more than six months and tend to increase in length with distance from the equator. Annual average precipitation is generally 600 to mm with pronounced inter-annual variation. Both annual and daily temperatures vary more here than in the climate zones closer to the equator (Stock 2004).
Humid Tropical Zone
The humid tropical zone exhibits peaks in precipitation and a short dry season. Some areas in this zone experience two rainfall maxima; the first occurs as weather systems associated with ITCZ migrate toward higher latitudes, while a second occurs as those weather systems move back toward the equator and toward the lower latitudes (Stock 2004). The average annual rainfall generally ranges between mm and mm in this zone (FAO 2001). Temperatures are relatively high, but with somewhat more seasonal variation than temperatures in the equatorial zone (Goudie 1996).
UNEP , Africa Water Atlas
Zwarts et al., 2005, Niger the lifeline, Wetlands International

7. I. 1. Case study introduction Upstream river basin management
The Upper Niger
2,43 M. inhabitants
Covers the Guinean part of the basin and stretchs to Selingué dam included.
Crucial for the generation of water ressources with the Fouta Djallon mountains
Regulation and storage infrastructure with Selingué and the future Fomi and Diaraguéla dams
The zone of the Offices
1.44 M. inhabitants
Intensive irrigated rice production with Office du Niger (Markala dam), Office de Ségou and Office de Baguinéda with a high potential to extend agricultural area
Bamako and the hydropower dam of Sotuba
High potential for navigation
The Bani catchment
0.53 M inhabitants
Reservoir of Talo and Djenné (planned extension)
High potential of rural development of more than ha (agriculture, fishing and livestock)
Projects of minor dams in Baoulé, Gbado and Bagoué
Total area 376,000 km2
129,000km2 for Bani
Peak discharge
Wet year 1,000 – 10,000 m3/s
Dry year 200 – 2000 m3/s
Source: NBA, PADD, 2010

8. I. 2. Case study introduction Inner Niger Delta
3,27 M inhabitants
Large wetland inundation plain ( km²) in the Sahelian climate zone
Drastic seasonal and inter-annual variation in discharge (30 to 50 hm3/y), flood extent (5 to km²)
Flood peak delay ~2 months
30 to 50% water losses
Zone crucial for fishing, livestock, agriculture in free submersion and the biodiversity
High vulnerability from upstream management
Talo Djenné Sélingué Markala
Source:
Zwarts et al., 2005, Niger the lifeline, Wetlands International

9. II. 1. SWIM: Niger river modelling setup Past climate application
ECMWF reanalysis ERA40
from at daily time step
0.5° resolution
Bias corrected with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC v4) and Climate Research Unit (CRU TS2.1)
Source; Weedon et al., 2010 , Watch tech report 22
Aich and Fournet 2013 in Dewfora D4.6, PIK

10. II. 1. SWIM: Niger river modelling setup Topography, Land-use, Soil, Sub-basins
Shuttle Radar Topographical Mission
SRTM Version 4, 90m resolution
Reclassified Global Land Cover
GLC 2000
Hydrotope
Hydrological
Response
Unit
FAO Digital Soil Map of the World
Harmonized World Soil Database
Number of sub-basins: 1923
Sub-basin average area: 1150km² 
Source; Fournet 2013 in Dewfora D3.5, PIK

11. II. 1. SWIM Soil and Water Integrated Model Development of Inundation module
Pre-processing in the delta floodplain: upstream of each sub-basin´s outlets, inundated area and the water volume accumulated and trapped in ponds are identified into sequential layers
Processes
Flooding
Routing, backwater
Evaporation (water surface)
Percolation
Release
Parameters
> Flooding: flow-threshold
> Flood release (linear) 1 2 5
Source: Liersch et al., 2011, SWAT conference

12. II. 1. SWIM calibration-validation Discharge Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), RESSAC project, Wetlands Internaitonal
7 steps of calibration-validation from upstream to outlets (16 out of 25 available gauges)
Upstream individual gauge parameter was kept next step only if it brings additionnal skill downtream

13. II. 2. Scenarios Irrigation extent and efficiencies scenarios
Settings of built (Sélingué, Talo) and planned (Fomi, Djenné, Diaraguéla) reservoirs and the current and future extension of the six main irrigation area as well as restricted minimal flows were setup in line with the development plan of the Niger Basin Authority
A minor and bigger extension as well as 3 irrigation efficiencies were added for the Office du Niger using last updated engineering master plan.
BAU
A NBA Extension but BAU for ON
B NBA Extension but minor extension for ON
C NBA extension
D NBA extension but land allocation extension for ON
E1 BAU
E2 Improve Tertiary channels
E3 Improve Tertiary and Secondary channels

14. II. 2. Scenarios River basin planning scenario
The final river basin management scenario matrix combine dam, irrigation extension and efficiencies plans.
It was defined with local stakeholder representatives from the Inner Niger Delta region.

15. II. 2. Scenarios Climate change scenarios: ISIMIP + CORDEX
Change of monthly discharge at Koulikouro between the period 2070‐2099 and the base period for Rcp8.5
Change of annual discharge at Koulikouro projected with SWIM driven by 18 climate models (5 ISIMIP, 3 MENA Cordex, 3 MENA Cordex bias‐corrected, 7 Africa Cordex)

16. II. 3. Water economic trade-offs assessment Tree decision matrix frame

17. II. 3. Water economic trade-offs assessment Tree decision matrix indexes
From simplistic trade-offs (National policies)
Unsupplied irrigated water volume (%) vs. Change of dischagre entering the delta (%)
To detailed characteristics (Dam and Irrigation scheme managers)

18. II. 3. Water economic trade-offs assessment Identify realistic trade-offs pathways

19. II. 4. Experimental hydrological forecast and early warning systems
ECMWF Integrated Forecast System 4
0.5 degree resolution
ENS
Monthly
SEAS
Seasonnal
Lead time in days
0-32 *
215
Number of ensemble members 5 15
Starting date used per year
52 (1 per week)
4 (1st of MJJA)
Hindcast period tested
Initial conditions in days **
1063
515
* 0 to 15 = medium range ** with WFD-EI, WFD-E4 and EI
WFD= Watch Forcing Data; E4= ERA-40; EI=ERA-Interim

20. III. Potential future research applications 1
III. Potential future research applications 1. Land use change scenarios
RCP85

21. Wetland ecosystem food services
III. Potential future research applications 2. Regional food security vulnerability assessment
Source of improvement:
modelling resolution of the floodplain for wetland ecosystem services assessment
losses estimation between production and demand processes
water economic trade-offs assessment between UNB and IND
Wetland ecosystem food services
Food demand
Fish catches
Crop production: rice
Fodder production: livestock, milk, meat, leather
Dietary requirement
Demographic projection

22. Thank you for your attention !

23. Questions ?