1. How to Deter Migration [to the United States]
David Leblang
University of Virginia

2. Motivation Understand drivers (push factors) of migration.
Role of statecraft on the part of destination: how do potential destinations decrease migration
“Deter” is an unfortunate word here: what I mean is:
Alter preferences by making homeland more attractive (decrease push)
Alter preferences by making alternative destinations more attractive
Make destination less attractive (deterrence)
Challenges: big data and modeling challenges
- So presentation will be three sets of findings

3. Question 1: Why do People Leave (or think about leaving?
Emigration out of non-OECD countries (with exception of Chile, Mexico, S. Korea, & Israel
Two sources
IAB (Institute for Employment Research), Brucker, Capuano, & Marfouk (2013): use census/population registers in 20 receiving (OECD) countries , 5-year periods.
World Bank (Global Bilateral Migration Dataset) Özden, C. Parsons, M. Schiff and T. L. Walmsley (2011). 225x225 matrix based on UN population registers. Decades from , updated using WB remittance database.
Emigration rate=(immigrants in origin by country of origin)/population in country of origin less migrants)

6. Also measure migration intention
Gallup World Poll
Approx 1000 respondents in 180 countries
“In the next five years do you plan to move to a foreign country?”
Important to be aware that intention does not necessarily mean that people move.

10. Measuring Immigration to the US
Most (if not all) immigration data codes the number of people being granted citizenship or a work permit.
United States USCIS & DHS collect data on
Adjustments of Status
New Arrivals
Pre-DHS: ICPSR; Post-DHS: FOIA
Available by month so can adjust by fiscal year

12. Question 2: Modeling Migration to the United States
Western Hemisphere origin countries (excluding Canada)
Poisson models with origin fixed effects
Focus on new arrivals
Controls: Origin GDP/US GDP; Social networks in US; poverty; education level; distance to US; landlocked; island.
US variables: Unemployment, economic growth, housing starts, jobs in construction sector
Focus on shocks: civil war; natural disaster; economic crisis

14. What of Alternative Destinations?
Challenge: not all emigrants from WH go to the United States. However, we don’t have good (or comparable) data on emigration flows into other WH countries or to the rest of the world.
Need to construct a measure comparable to trade frictions: multilateral resistance term which shows the relative attractiveness of alternative destinations.
Problem: what are the appropriate or relevant alternatives? How should we weigh them?
Simple but imperfect solution: look at Mexico as alternative

15. Mexico as alternative destination

16. One more model: Central America
Homicides increase outmigration
US deportations and US sales of small arms increase homicides
How to combine these models??

17. Conclusion
Environmental and economic shocks increase migration to the US from WH
Lots to do
Multilateral Resistance
Think about aid, trade, investment as efforts to mitigate shocks
Need to identify timing of policy levers