1. Analyzing Global Population Patterns and Trends
Population Pressures
Analyzing Global Population Patterns and Trends

3. The world as 100 People infographic:
What does this portrait tell us about:
Global demographic patterns?
Social development?
Economic development?

4. 7 Billion
Revisit the short National Geographic clip in your group and answer the following questions:
What was the world’s population in 1800? 1960? What factors might account for this explosion?
What is the population projection for 2045?
What does this video reveal about the distribution of Earth’s resources?

5. Carrying Capacity
Carrying Capacity: the number of people that the world’s resources can support using the technology that exists at that time.
If everyone in the world lived like the average Canadian, we would need 4.5 planet earths!

7. Carrying Capacity

8. Carrying Capacity and Technology
CC is not a fixed number – Varies from 2.2 billion to 16 billion people. Why?
Vastly different estimates of resource consumption and resource depletion.
Depends on stage of society. More advanced = larger CC
CC depends on the relationship among technology, lifestyle, and population.
The Earth’s carrying capacity has moved through various stages over it’s history.

9. STAGE 1: Hunting and Gathering
Food supply was not reliable. As a consequence, population growth did not increase at a steady rate.
A very large area of land was necessary to support a relatively small number of people.
The earth’s carrying capacity was low
STAGE 2: Agricultural Revolution
The success of farming created food surpluses.
The Agricultural Revolution had a profound effect on the world’s population.
When more food could be obtained from each square kilometer of land, the land’s carrying capacity grew.

10. STAGE 3: Industrial Revolution
By 1700, the invention of machines began to replace human power.
Machines, first powered by steam, then coal and oil, multiplied many times a person’s physical efforts.
Fewer people were needed to work on farms.
More people moved to cities to work in manufacturing plants.
Again, with further improvement to agricultural techniques, and transportation modes, the earth’s carrying capacity increased exponentially.
STAGE 4: Technological Revolution?
We are currently living in an era of accelerated technological progress characterized by new innovations.
How will the world’s population be affected by this technological age?

11. Word Equations Read pages 64 – 66 (Global Connections 2nd)
Write a “word equation” for each of the following terms.
Eg Birth Rate = Births / Population x 1000
Death rate
Natural increase rate
Immigration rate
Emigration rate
Net migration rate
Population growth rate
Dependency load
Age-dependency ratio
Infant mortality rate
Total fertility rate
Replacement rate
Rule of 70

12. Do Some Calculations:
A country had a population of at the beginning of the year. During the year, the following changes occurred in the population:
babies were born
people died
people emigrated
people immigrated
babies died during the year
women were aged from 15 to 45
Calculate the following values: (Start your answers/calculations by using the word equations in all cases.)
the population at the end of the year
the birth rate
the death rate
the emigration rate
the immigration rate
the natural increase rate
the net migration rate
the population growth rate
the infant mortality rate
the total fertility rate

14. Key Terms Revisited Demography: the study of human populations
Birth Rate: is the number of births per 1000 people in a country
Birth Rate = (Births ÷ Population) x 1000
Death Rate: is the number of deaths per 1000 people in a country
Death Rate = (Deaths ÷ Population) x 1000
Infant Mortality Rate: is the number of children who die in their first year of life for every 1000 live births in a country
Infant Mortality Rate = (Infant death ÷ Total Live Births) x 1000
Natural Increase Rate: the rate at which a population increases or decreases per year based ONLY on the death rate and birth rate – does not account for immigration
Natural Increase Rate = (Births – Deaths) ÷ Total Population x 100

15. Population Growth Rate
Population Growth Rate: rate at which a population increases or decreases in a given year through natural increase and net migration
Population Growth Rate = Natural increase rate + Net Migration Rate
Canada’s Population Growth Rate is 1.1%, India’s is 1.3%, Japan’s -0.1%

16. Immigration/Emigration:
What’s the difference?
Immigration is entering a foreign country
Emigration is leaving one country for another
Net Migration is the difference between the number of immigrants coming in and emigrants leaving an area in a period of time
Displayed as ppl per 1,000 inhabitants
A positive value represents more people entering the country than leaving it, while a negative value mean more people leaving than entering it

17. Emigration and Immigration
Emigration Rate (Emigrants ÷ Total Population) x 1000
Immigration Rate: (Immigrants ÷ Total Population) x 1000
Net Migration Rate = (Immigrants – Emigrants) ÷ Total Population x 1000

18. Dependants
Dependency Load is defined as the number of people in a population that are under 15 or over 65
Often people >15 or <65 dependent on the rest of the population economically
Age- Dependency Ratio= (Population under 15 + Population over 65) ÷ Population 15 – 64 x 100

19. Population Replacement
Total Fertility Rate is the average # of children that each woman will have in her fertile years (15 – 45). High fertility rate = greater than 5. Low fertility rate = less than the replacement rate of 2.1.
Replacement Rate is the total fertility rate that produces a natural increase rate of zero. This rate is 2.1.
Rule of 70 is a way to estimate how long it would take for a country’s population to double.
Rule of 70 = 70 ÷ population growth rate

20. Population change over time will inevitably affect….
Studying Population
Population change over time will inevitably affect….
Political Systems
Economics
Social Structures
Environments
Factors that may lead to population increase include:
Food
Health
Economic Growth
Migration

21. Studying Population Growth Rate
the number of persons added to (or subtracted from) a population due to natural increase and net migration.
Birth rate: number of live births per 1,000 population per year.
Death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 population per year.
Rate of Natural Increase
birth rate – death rate = rate of natural increase
Net Migration = immigrants – emigrants

22. Studying Population
Factors that contribute to the decline in death rate include:
Better Nutrition
Better Access to Medical Care
Improved Sanitation
Better Immunization
Effects of Population Increase
Increased poverty
Resource depletion
Medicine shortages
Urban sprawl

23. Studying Population Factors that may lead to population decline
Heavy Emigration
Disease
Famine
War
Sub-replacement Fertility
Effects of Population Decline:
Deflation
Rise in the standard of living
Population aging
Small impact on the environment
Political power?

24. Studying Population Population Decline in the past The Black Death
Old World Diseases
Potato Famine
Population Decline today
Sub-replacement Fertility Levels
Migration

25. Studying Population Sub-replacement Fertility
a fertility rate that is not high enough to replace an area’s population. Sub-replacement fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman or higher.
Why low sub-replacement fertility rate?
Urbanization
Contraception
Government Policies
Exception: United States where natural increase rates have remained stable…
And within the US, incredible regional variations

26. Global Patterns and Trends
Go to:
Find the top 10 most populated countries in What are the population projections for these countries in 2050?
Find a definition for Population Density.
Examine a map online regarding Population Density.
a. Considering your answer for #1, what geo-spatial patterns do you notice about global population density? b. What factors might account for high levels of density? Low levels of density?
Examine the data from the Population Reference Bureau. Calculate the population increase (in raw numbers) from to the projections for 2050 for the top 5 countries.

27. Global Patterns and Trends
4a. Using the World Bank data, identify the region of the world that has the highest levels of population growth. b. Does this finding surprise you? Why or why not? 5. Which regions have the lowest levels of growth? What might explain this pattern?

28. POPULATION DENSITIES
Arithmetic density: The total number of people / area of land (measured in km2 or sq miles).
Physiological density: The total population / area of arable land.

29. Density (arithmetic)

30. The amount of land available in a country is less important than the ability of the land to produce food
Population density is sometimes calculated in more refined way, based on this idea.
Physiological density is the relationship between population and that portion of the land that is suitable for cultivation (Arable land), and therefore how much food is/can be produced. The idea is similar to the concept of ‘Ecological Footprints’

31. Factors Affecting Distribution: PHYSICAL
While it is important to remember that physical geography is not entirely responsible for human geography, there is a relationship between them based on the attractiveness, especially productivity, of certain areas.
On a global scale there are four physical variables: temperature, water availability, relief and soil quality that make land attractive for settlement.

32. Locational Factors: Climate (temperature, precipitation), Flat Land, Rivers, Oceans, Fertile Soils, Near other cities, near other transportation routes.

33. Studying Population
In the developed countries, there are fewer and fewer young people and more and more elderly.
Millions
Age
Males
Females
Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision.

34. Studying Population
The young population of the developing countries translates to great growth potential.
Millions
Age
Males
Females
Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision.

35. Studying Population
Europe is the only world region projected to decline in population by 2050.
Millions

36. Population Pyramids
A population pyramid is two back-to-back bar graphs, one showing the number of males and one showing females in a particular population in five- year age groups (also called cohorts).
A great deal of information about the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, and this can shed light on the extent of its development.
Birth rate trends
Death rate trends
Number of economic dependents (<15, >65)
3 Main Types
* Expansive * Declining (constrictive)
* Stable/Near Stationary

37. Population Pyramids
Three basic shapes of population pyramids.

39. Population Pyramids – CAN 1961
Aging Population
Depression
Baby Boom

40. Population Pyramids – CAN 2006

41. Population Pyramids – US 1990

42. Population Pyramids – US 2000

43. Population Pyramids – US 2025

44. Population Pyramids – US 2050

45. Population Pyramids – US 2100

46. The Theory of Demographic Transition
Demographic transition describes the phenomenon of a country's high birth and death rates changing over time to low birth and death rates.
Demographic transition is predictable and the result of a range of economic, social, and scientific developments that continue to occur in various parts of the world.

47. Demographic Transition Model

48. Stage 1: Pre-transition
Very high birth and death rates
Distinctive population pyramid with very wide base and very narrow top.
Life is precarious, death rates are high, life expectancy is not more than 50 yrs.
No country in the world is still in Pre-transition

49. Stage 2: Early Transition
A dramatic drop in death rate occurs (due to improved methods of water purification, sanitation, and vaccinations).
Birth rates stay high as many children are still needed to help raise food and to ensure there will be a caregiver for aging parents. Also, religions sometimes restrict the use of birth control.
Natural increase is significant.
Countries in this stage have a great demand for schools as the child dependency load is large.
Key characteristic in this stage is “Death Control”

50. Stage 3: Late Transition
With better health, more children begin to survive to adulthood. This places a strain on families as inheritances are shared between 8 or 9 siblings. Typically older children are in control of inheritances. Younger siblings are forced to ‘find their own way’.
Wave of migration to cities to find work
Life in cities is more expensive
Less desire to have many children due to the expense of raising them
Reduced birth rate
Key characteristic in this stage is “Birth Control”. (not because of access to contraceptives, but due to decrease desire for large families)

51. Stage 4: Post-Transition
Both birth rate and death rate have fallen and almost equal each other again.
If birth rate and death rate are equal, natural increase is zero and the population will stabilize.
Life is highly urbanized and people have small families and live to an old age.
Dependence load is large due to the number of older people.
Population pyramid has a characteristic ‘bullet shape’.

52. Stage 5 ?? : doesn’t fit the model
Doesn’t fit the model, but it’s happening in highly developed countries.
Characterized by declining populations.
Fertility rate is lower than the replacement rate.
Huge bulk of older people.

53. FIND It!
Find two examples of countries that are in each of the DTM stages.