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Peter May and Beth Ebert CAWCR Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Water issues Peter May and Beth Ebert CAWCR Bureau of Meteorology Australia
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Precipitation measurement (1)
Rain gauges still the "gold standard" Snow measurements an issue Radar the "next best" National networks going polarimetric Emerging international standards for QC & formats to facilitate best practice and data exchange Satellite – quasi-global coverage Require bias correction Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Research satellites (CloudSat, EarthCARE, etc.) for process studies
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Precipitation measurement (2)
Merged gauge+radar+satellite products needed Finer space/time scales? Challenging regions High latitudes, tropics, oceans, developing nations Special observation datasets TOMACS, HyMeX, SCRMEX, etc. Can we get even more value from existing datasets, e.g., COPS?
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Precipitation modelling
Convection parameterization in large-scale models Is large-scale rain adequately modelled? High resolution ensemble modelling Representation of microphysical processes How important is coupled atm-ocean-land for short & medium range forecasts of rain? More coordinated precipitation modelling experiments (beyond intercomparisons)
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Precipitation nowcasting
Can we do any better with radar nowcasts or have we extracted most/all information? Ditto with satellite? Assimilation of radar & satellite into rapid update NWP closing the nowcast-forecast gap RDPs/FDPs have accelerated progress – need for more?
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Precipitation forecasting & warning
Interpretation of high resolution NWP, esp. from ensembles How to handle uncertainty – edge between determinism and probability, big impacts from small errors Slow progress in key parameterisations in global models Communication of heavy rain warnings & forecasts in most meaningful way Working with users – emergency managers, dam operators, agriculture sector, etc.
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Impact prediction Who is responsible?
How best to input precipitation to downstream predictions? Hazard impacts – flooding, debris flows, road icing, damage to infrastructure Water balance and water resources Need for two-way coupling via land surface model?
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Verification and value assessment
Obs issues impact on verification User-focused verification methods How to estimate economic value of precipitation forecasts? Hazard mitigation, resource estimation How to obtain and use relevant economic information in commercially sensitive world?
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