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Cross-Domain Threats and the Escalation of International Crises in East Asia
J Andres Gannon, M.A. PhD Student, Political Science, UC San Diego Researcher, Center for Peace and Security Studies (cPASS)
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Motivation
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Puzzle Domains of Conflict – Respond to aggression in one area with aggression in another What is a domain? Why do states pick aggression in one domain over another? Given aggression in one, which domain do states respond in? To deter aggression in one domain, what preemptive threats can you make?
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Point Means matter “Designing around” deterrence How has international conflict in East Asia changed? What tools are becoming more common? What tools are less common?
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What is changing Actors are responding to threats with un-like capabilities Korean context “Gray zone” conflict Ordinary Competition Gray Zone Traditional Conflict Peace War Means: coercive, directed maneuvering Ends: revisionist, harms another actor, affect relative power Means: combined arms intensive warfare Ends: avoid proportional response, maintain mutually agreed upon ceiling of escalation
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Implications General Korean context Designing around deterrence
New role of nuclear threats
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Recommendations Understand the specific tools used Role of deterrence
Adversaries Allies Context-specific Role of deterrence Gray zone as deterrence success Gray zone as a strategic choice
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