1. Cross-Domain Threats and the Escalation of International Crises in East Asia
J Andres Gannon, M.A.
PhD Student, Political Science, UC San Diego
Researcher, Center for Peace and Security Studies (cPASS)

2. Motivation

3. Puzzle
Domains of Conflict – Respond to aggression in one area with aggression in another
What is a domain?
Why do states pick aggression in one domain over another?
Given aggression in one, which domain do states respond in?
To deter aggression in one domain, what preemptive threats can you make?

4. Point
Means matter
“Designing around” deterrence
How has international conflict in East Asia changed?
What tools are becoming more common?
What tools are less common?

9. What is changing
Actors are responding to threats with un-like capabilities
Korean context
“Gray zone” conflict
Ordinary Competition
Gray Zone
Traditional Conflict
Peace
War
Means: coercive, directed maneuvering
Ends: revisionist, harms another actor, affect relative power
Means: combined arms intensive warfare
Ends: avoid proportional response, maintain mutually agreed upon ceiling of escalation

10. Implications General Korean context Designing around deterrence
New role of nuclear threats

11. Recommendations Understand the specific tools used Role of deterrence
Adversaries
Allies
Context-specific
Role of deterrence
Gray zone as deterrence success
Gray zone as a strategic choice