1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
Peter Chen
Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division
Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department
ICSC-10 for THORPEX
Geneva
3 -5 October 2012

2. SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services
“Spending on improving weather forecasting and
sharing data have high returns.”
Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters –
The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)

3. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO
Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”
(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)
WMO Strategic Priorities
Disaster Risk Reduction
Capacity Development
Climate change adaptation

4. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
WMO
SWFDP Main Goals
Improve Severe Weather Forecasting
Improve lead-time of Warnings
Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities
SWFDP Regional Subprojects
Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion)
Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC Fiji)
Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar)
Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries)
Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

5. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process
Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;
Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;
NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with Disaster Management, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;
NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.
Global Centers
RSMC Pretoria
NMCs
Disaster Management Centres 5

6. SWFDP – Southern Africa
16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion,
Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF
RSMC Pretoria Webportal
Since 2006
Example: SWFDP-Southern Africa web site (RSMC Pretoria) 6

7. SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria
RSMC analysis forecast information
Guidance every day for the next 5 days
Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather
Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs
Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

8. SWFDP Southwest Pacific - 9 Island States, RSMC Wellington, RSMC Nadi - ECMWF, Met Office UK, NWS/USA, ABoM
RSMC Wellington
Since 2009

9. SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress)
WMO
Focus on:
Strong winds
Heavy precipitation
Hazardous waves
(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
Dry spells
Users: general public, disaster management,
media, agriculture and fisheries
Domains:
5E – 55E; 30N – 25S
(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying
the various severe weather events)
31E – 36E; 2N – 4S
(for the Lake Victoria)
Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP
(NWP guidance material)
MSG satellite products (EUMETSat)
Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by
TMA, UKMO and DWD
National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia
Started September 2011

10. SWFDP – Eastern Africa 6 countries, RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar-es-Salaam, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF, DWD
RFSC Dar-es-Salaam
since 2011
RSMCNairobi
Since 2011

11. Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia
WMO
SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress
Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at:
Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)
Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E
Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA
(NWP guidance material, satellite products)
Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast
Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi
(TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and
technical support)
NMCs: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam
Start-up awaiting establishment of RFSC Ha Noi (2013?)

12. SWFDP – Bay of Bengal Focus: Coastal communities and activities
Bangladesh
India
Maldives
Myanmar
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Bhutan (later)
Nepal (later)
Afghanistan (later)
Pakistan (later)
40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S
Severe Weather from TCs,
severe thunderstorms and monsoon:
Heavy precipitation, Strong winds
Large waves / swell, Storm Surge
Improved severe weather forecasting (GDPFS), warning services to
disaster management (PWS) and with agriculture (AgMet)

13. SWFDP links and synergies
General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.)
Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications
AgM, MMO,
AeM, etc.
Specific Comm. Systems
Flash Flood Guidance
HWR
Disaster Management and Civil Protection
Specific Communication
Systems
Regional Centre
Global Centres
RSMCs-TC
Global NWP/EPS and
Sat-based products TC
Guidance
Products
(risk/probability)
GDPFS
National Met Centres
(Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins)
PWS
WWRP
Research Projects
Satellite Imagery and Tools
WMO SP
SMS; Weather Radio
Systems; Public Web; etc.
General Public
; etc.
Radio; TV
Media
Specific Communication
Systems
Disaster Management and Civil Protection

14. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)
High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore damaging waves, landslides);
Increase synergy with Tropical Cyclone Programme
Forecast Verification (guidance, forecasts, warnings)
Phase-in other developments (“cascade” to applications, promising R&D outputs from WWRP)
Training for forecasters, PWS focal points, and disaster managers
Country-specific implementation plans
S&T gaps:
Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events
Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)
Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations
Internet-based

15. SWFDP – improving warning services
A severe weather warnings programme at every NMHSs supported by the World Weather Watch System
Warning services gaps:
Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media
Warning criteria, SoP, reach, quality assurance
Inadequate monitoring, no objective verification
No severe weather warnings programme no

16. SWFDP – Cooperating with Research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations …
WWRP
GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; 48-hour delay from real-time)
Forecast Verification Research (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa)
Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h; possibly SWFDP-SeAsia, SWFDP-Ern Africa)
Sub-seasonal forecasting (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa)
Public weather services & DRR, with SERA

17. GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)
Southern Africa
Eastern Africa
Southwest Pacific
Southeast Asia

18. SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services
Thank you!
DPFS:
Peter Chen
Alice Soares
PWS:
Haleh Kootval
Sam Muchemi
AgMet:
Robert Stefanski
Jose Camacho