1. Unit 5 - Public Opinion & Ideology
Targets 5.5 – 5.8

2. Public Opinion Case Study
Should “final clubs”, such as those at Harvard University be allowed to Continue?
Allowed
Not Allowed

3. Public Opinion Case Study
Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?
Possible
Impossible

4. Public Opinion Case Study
Was President elect Donald Trump right to make a courtesy call to Taiwan’s political leader?
Yes No

5. Public Opinion Case Study
Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?
Possible
22%
Impossible

6. 5.5 Case Study - Public Opinion
Can we trust public opinion polls?
The 1993 Roper poll caused a shock wave when over 1/5 (22%) of respondents indicated that they believed it was possible the Holocaust did not happen. The question contained a double negative
By changing the wording of the question, the number dropped to just 1%

7. 5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion
RESOURCES
How Exit Polls Work (Vox – Nov. 2014)
Fox News broke exit polls rules (Politico – Oct. 2014)
5a Should government care what the public thinks or wants?
In a democracy, how important is it for government actions to reflect the popular will?
View of the Framers?
5b Why is public opinion so hard to pin down?
Public uniformed
Public opinion changes
Polling Techniques: Question wording matters (false positives, leading questions, either/or questions), Must be Random / Large sampling
Push polls … loaded or manipulative questions
5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion
Is government policy supposed to reflect the will of the people? Should government even care that much about what the people think? The way we answer these questions profoundly affects how our democracy will work. If we believe in the basic tenet of democracy that the people should ultimately retain political power, then government by definition, must have some sense of what the public wants. But again, to what extent should policy mirror opinion?
First, it is not clear that government policy was ever intended to match public opinion - at least to match it closely. The Framers, as you will recall, were not that confident in the average citizen’s ability to understand political issues and to make good decisions (hence our Republic as opposed to a more direct democracy). Thus the system was designed in such as way so that policy does not always match opinion.
Additionally, finding out what the people think or want is not that easy. There are number factors that make finding public opinion tentative at best:
First, public opinion polls are by nature limited in what they can find out. Unless the poll goes into great detail, which most people would not be willing to put forth that much effort or give up that much time, then the poll must be limited in its scope. Thus it may not give an accurate view of the person’s opinion.
The public tends to be uniformed about issues
Public opinion changes and shifts over time, and those changes are not always apparant. A good example is policy on gay marriage.
Finding out what the opinion of the people is difficult. Polling techniques, if not followed carefully, can lead to false conclusions. Common Polling mistakes:
(1) How questions are asked make a big difference. For example questions with a false positive are misleading and can give inaccurate results. Also some questions can be “leading” questions, which are questions that hint to the answer. “Either/Or” questions can also produce misleading results. For example, if you are presented a statement and then asked whether you “agree or disagree” with the statement, you often find that you are in between the two options or you might say to yourself “well it depends”. These are all common problems with polling questions.
(2) Polling samples must be as “random” as possible.
(3) Finally, polls must take large enough samples

8. 5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion
5c What factors influence political beliefs?
Family
Age
Religion
Gender
Social Class
Race
Region
5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion
If we are to understand public opinion, we need to know how people form their political beliefs. That process is called Political Socialization.
What factors shape our individual beliefs? (see slide above – both text and the graphic)

9. Issue Collage (Top Left, clockwise to center): Teaching Evolution in schools, debate between science and religion, Ann Coulter is an outspoken conservative pundit, Clinton and Gore, Ralph Reed and the Conservative Coalition.

10. Understanding Government
To Understand …
One Must Understand…
Modern Government
Political Parties
Political Ideology
Political parties
Political ideology/Culture
Political Issues
If we are to truly understand politics and government in America, we must understand the nature and working of political parties (this will be the topic of study in the next unit).
Consequently, to understand political parties, we must in turn have understanding of political ideology. Virtually everything in politics today revolves around political ideology and it shapes almost every aspect of government.
But, one cannot understand ideology without an understanding of a range of political issues. Thus a study of ideology is tied closely to a study of political issues. These issues include everything from Abortion to the War on Terrorism. Thus, understanding government ultimately comes down to understanding both ideologies and their related issues.

11. 5.6a Political Ideology/Beliefs
Q:What distinguishes a Democrat from a Republican?
A: Political ideology =
Beliefs and/or convictions regarding political & moral issues
Q: What are the major political ideologies / labels…
A: Liberal and Conservative
Meanings have changed
Liberal for T. Jefferson = maximum political and economic freedom
Time of Roosevelt’s New Deal = Activist government that tries to solve social and economic problems
Those in the middle of the spectrum are called moderates
As a rule, the Democrats are liberal and the Republicans are conservative.
6a Political Beliefs
See slide for information

12. 5.6b Political Ideology/Beliefs
Debating Issues
Are people born gay?
Q: What do the labels “liberal” and “conservative” mean?
A: Beliefs on a wide spectrum of issues, ranging from the environment to gay marriage
Issues can be categorized as economic issues or social issues
“Hot button” Issues
Abortion
Gay Marriage
Gun Control
Illegal Immigration
National debt
6b Ideological Labels
Hot buttons issues are those political issues that, at any given time, people are especially concerned with. Hot button issues consistently divide liberals and conservatives and, most often, hot button issues are the central issues in the culture war.
Abortion is usually at the top of the list. In fact, abortion is one of the most consistent issue over the years that has divided liberals and conservatives. I refer to it as the “poster child” of hot button issues.
Scholars disagree over the depth of the political divide in America. Some say it is significant and growing. Other political scholars believe that is mostly superficial and that Americans, whether liberal or conservative, share common deep seated beliefs (i.e. political culture).

13. 5.6b Political Ideology/Beliefs
Religion in Schools
Evolution v. Intelligent Design
Evolution
The Environment
Global Waba??
Inconvenient Truth
Wolf release program
6b Ideological Labels
Hot Button Issues - Some issues move in and out of the top tier list of hot button issues. There are many of these, the slide above samples just a few of these.

14. Name Calling Political Name Calling
Social media has allowed the political rhetoric to intensive! Based on what you see on social media you would think Americans are ready to go to war with each other.

15. 5.6c Measuring Political Ideology
Resources:
Every wondered the origins of the terms conservative and liberal? Listen to NPR story on origins of political labels:
Q: What tool is used to measure ideology?
A: The Political Spectrum
The Left
liberals
The Right
moderates
conservatives
Pure Liberals Pure Conservatives
6c Measuring Ideology
The political spectrum is a simple way of pinpointing or gauging the political ideology of individuals or groups. Various issues can be plotted on the spectrum, the average of which designates the person or group’s ideological label.
Where do you fit on the political spectrum?
Most Americans fall in the middle of the spectrum and thus are considered moderates (as opposed to those on the edges of the spectrum).
Photo: CNN’s Crossfire introduces its hosts as the being on the “left” and “right”.
Link: Play to slide to access the story from NPR
Origins of Political Ideology (NPR – Dec 2013)
Left vs Right (Prauger)

16. 5.6c Gauging Political Ideology
Liberal
Notable individuals with strong liberal ideological views:
Liberal (left to right): Bernie Sanders (Senator, Democratic presidential candidate 2016 election), Van Jones (Democratic operative, CNN news contributor), Bill Maher (TV talk show host), Elizabeth Warren (Senator from Massachusetts, Michael Moore (Film maker and outspoken critic of the Bush administration), Liberal Hollywood stars – Matt Damon, Natalie Portman, George Clooney

17. 5.6c Gauging Political Ideology
Conservative
Notable individuals with strong ideological views:
Conservative: (Center moving counter clock wise): Marco Rubio (Conservative Senator from Florida and Republican presidential hopeful), George W Bush (President ), Ted Cruz (Texas Senator who has made a name for himself as part of the tea party caucus, Republican presidential hopeful 2012 and 2016 elections), Rush Limbaugh (First to put conservative talk radio on the map in the 1990’s, had a listening audience of 20 million), Sean Hannity (talk radio host, author, outspoken critic of the Democratic party and liberalism), Ann Coulter (Author and outspoken political pundit, Colter has incurred the wrath of the left in recent years), Ben Shipiro (Conservative Jew, outspoken critic of liberal policies)

18. 5.6d Interpreting Data
Are more Americans Conservative, Liberal or Moderate? How does this correspond with party affiliation?
Interpret two charts from Pew Research: One showing Ideology (Gallup) and the other showing party affiliation (Pew)
What is the trend for each chart?
When comparing the two, do you see any anomalies?
How might we explain this?
Look at data from Gallup Research showing which political ideology people identify with:
Compare this with party identification:

19. 5.6 Activity - Gauging Your Own Ideology
Complete this activity by taking 2 of the following surveys…
World’s Smallest Political Quiz
&
Go to Quiz
- Or -
Pew Research – Political Typology
To test your political ideology, take the ideology surveys in the slide. Run the Presentation, then click on the links ….
OR -
Copy the following URL’s into your browser:
World Smallest political Quiz:
Go To Quiz:
Pew Research:

20. 5.6e Beyond Conservative & Liberal
IN DEPTH
Ron Paul Highlights from 2012 Republican Primary Debate - (Fox News )
Libertarian
Demographics = younger, more educated
Social Issues = Liberal
Economic Issues = Conservative
6e Beyond Conservative and Liberal
Libertarianism is the concept that government should be involved in our lives as little as possible, and thus should not interfere with our choices and our lives. Another term sometimes associated with libertarians is “individualism”.
In essence libertarians are conservative on governmental and economic issues, but liberal on social issues: for instance, libertarians generally support the right to an abortion, gay marriage, etc., but they also want lower taxes, few if any social programs, and few restrictions on guns (that is if they are a true libertarian). As with any of the political labels there libertarians who extreme and those who are moderate.
What are the demographic features of Libertarians?
Above: Tammy Bruce is a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun, minimal government (very unique combination) radio talk show host in LA. Bruce, once part of the feminist leadership, is now highly critical of the feminist organization NOW (National Organization of Women), a highly liberal interest group. Ron Paul, though Republican in his party affiliation, has some fairly distinct libertarian views

21. 5.6e Beyond Conservative & Liberal
What do Populists Believe?
Populists
Demographics = Older, less educated
Social Issues = Conservative
Economic Issues = Liberal
6e Beyond Conservative and Liberal
Populists are conservative on social issues, but more liberal on governmental and economic issues. They generally oppose the right to an abortion, gay marriage, etc., but they are more inclined to support social programs such as Medicare, Social Security, and unemployment benefits.
What are the demographic features of those who are Populists?
Capitalism, A Love Story

22. 5.6e Beyond Conservative & Liberal
Who are Evangelicals? (NPR)
Other Labels
Environmentalists
Feminist
Mormon Feminists
Atheists
Agnostics
Evangelicals (NPR)
Fundamentalist
6e Beyond Conservative and Liberal
There are numerous political labels, often related to a specific issue or group of issues.

23. 5.7 Q: “Who” are Liberals & Conservatives?
A: Many factors shape, or otherwise correlate with an individuals ideological beliefs. The following are some important demographic factors:
Gender
Race
Age
Region
Southern states v. North East
West coast v. Intermountain region
Urban v. Rural
Religion
Church goers v. secularists
Education
Income
Family (married?, Children?)
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
With this target, I want you to understand the demographic breakdown of ideology. You will be using online exit polls taken in recent elections to understand what factors are related to someone’s political beliefs. You will find there is a consistent, predictable trend. As you work this activity take note of the factors that influence your political beliefs.

24. 5.7 In Depth - Who are liberals & Conservatives
RESOURCES
How do Exit Polls work?
5.7 In Depth - Who are liberals & Conservatives
Complete this In depth Assignment by using CNN Exit Polls
2012 Presidential Exit Polls (CNN)
Once at the web site, choose the exit poll tab
2014 Mid term exit polls (CNN)
Once at the web site, scroll down below the map, then choose the "Exit Poll" tab
2016 Presidential Exit Poll (CNN)
Example of how to complete 5.7:
View of Federal Health Law (Obamacare) – 2014 exit polls
Conservatives are much more likely to oppose Obamacare at 84%, whereas liberals are much more likely to favor at 74%
In your answer, use the phrases “more likely” & “less likely” to record the trend
Optional Polls to look at (Note that some categories are not included in these polls)
2012 Exit Polls (NY Times)
2012 Exit Polls (Wash. Post) Compares 2012 & 2008 Elections
How do Exit polls Work? (Vox Article)
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
Play the slide to click on the links. For each exit poll, find the category for 5.7 In-depth of your study guide and write a conclusion showing the ideological trend (See example in the slide)
One note of clarification: the exit polls look at which candidate or party the person voted for. Thus we are then inferring what ideology they are. If the person voted for the Romney/Trump/Etc, they are conservative. Whereas, if they voted for Obama/Clinton, they are liberal.
Resource: 2016 Presidential Exit Polls

25. 5.7a The “gender gap” 5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
Study the chart in the slide to understand the Gender Gap.
What changed men’s minds? (insert smart aleck comment here)
Maybe a better question would be, “Who” changed men’s minds?

26. 5.7b Region 5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
Notice that the United States is broken down into red and blue states. Red states are those that have a majority conservative population. Blue states are those that have a majority liberal population. This is not to say there are not conservatives in California, for instance, or liberals in Texas, but rather one ideology has a majority.
How do each of the following regions lean?
The West Coast and Pacific North West
The intermountain region
The Mid West
The South
The Great Lakes region
The North East
The most conservative state in the union is Utah, the most liberal is New York and D.C.

27. 7b Region 5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
This map gives a county by county break down of party affiliation (and thus reflects ideology), notice the blue areas often overlay with urban population centers.
How can we explain the blue patches in Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming which are otherwise distinctly conservative states?

28. 7b Region 5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
The Map indicates which presidential candidate carried that county: Blue = Democrat, Red = Republican.
Study the chart: What conclusions can you make?

29. 5.7c Race VOTE BY RACE BUSH KERRY NADER TOTAL 2004 2000 White (77%)
58% +4
41% 0%
African-American (11%)
11% +2
88%
Latino (8%)
44% +9
53% 2%
Asian (2%) +3
56% *
Other (2%)
40% +1
54%
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
The chart above shows how people voted in the 2004 presidential election by race. Note the African-Americans are the most loyal racial group voting overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate.

30. 5.7c Race 5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
What conclusions can you make from the chart above?

31. 5.7c Age VOTE BY AGE BUSH KERRY TOTAL 2004 2000 18-29 (17%) 45% n/a
NADER
TOTAL
2004
2000
18-29 (17%)
45%
n/a
54% 0%
30-44 (29%)
53% +4
46% 1%
45-59 (30%)
51% +2
48%
60 and Older (24%) +7
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
There is distinct pattern with age and party affiliation and ideology. The younger you are, the more likely you are to be a liberal democratic and conversely, the older you are, the more likely you are to be a conservative republican
What is not clear is whether this is a generational gap, or a lasting trend in party affiliation and ideology.

32. 5.7c Religion VOTE BY RELIGION TOTAL 2004 2000 Protestant (54%) 59% +3
BUSH
KERRY
NADER
TOTAL
2004
2000
Protestant (54%)
59% +3
40% 0%
Catholic (27%)
52% +5
47%
Jewish (3%)
25% +6
74% *
Other (7%)
23% -5 1%
None (10%)
31% +1
67%
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
Religion has a distinct correlation with a person’s party affiliation and ideology. Notice that Jews are the single most loyal liberal democratic religious group

33. Religion cont. Democrats and Religion CHURCH ATTENDANCE
KERRY
NADER
TOTAL
2004
2000
More Than Weekly (16%)
64%
n/a
35% 1%
Weekly (26%)
58%
41% 0%
Monthly (14%)
50%
49% *
A Few Times a Year (28%)
45%
54%
Never (15%)
36%
62%
BUSH
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
Church attendance is a significant factor in how people vote and thus a reflection on their ideology.
Democrats and Religion

34. 5.7c Family Status Yes 31 % 41 % 56 % 0 % 2 % No 69 % 51 % 44 % 1 %
Are You Married?
All
Gore
Bush
Buchanan
Nader
Yes
65 %
44 %
53 %
1 %
2 % No
35 %
57 %
38 %
0 %
4 %
Married and Have Children?
All
Gore
Bush
Buchanan
Nader
Yes
31 %
41 %
56 %
0 %
2 % No
69 %
51 %
44 %
1 %
3 %
5.7 Who are Liberals and Conservatives
The is a strong correlation between marriage/family and political beliefs but may also reflect the classic “chicken and the egg” paradox. Which comes first: does marriage and family lead to certain political beliefs, or do political beliefs lead one to the marriage and family life-style? Perhaps it’s there is a reciprocal effect going on.

35. 5.8 Political Elites 8a-c Who Are Political Elites?
Political Elites defined….
Elites are more consistent and more extreme in their political views
Elites are more ideological than the general public (Pew)
Through what means do political elites exercise more influence over policy?
Media
Examples
5.8 Political Elites
Link: Play the slide to view the link

36. 5.9 Reading Data
The AP test will have questions that will include charts and data
Use the Charts and Data handout/online presentation to complete this target
5.9 Reading Data
Complete the Charts and Data Handout for this target.