1. NEETs and the labour market
Labour Market Statistics User Group Conference - 20th March 2011
Paul Sissons

2. Outline
Context
Sources, methods and questions
Trends in NEET
Characteristics of the NEET group
Geography of NEETs

3. Context and importance
The number of NEETs has risen significantly in the past decade, and this increase began before the recession
Cost of NEETs – for NEET costs estimated at £12-£32 billion (Coles et al, 2010); individuals costs - financial and wellbeing
Recession and recovery – NEET policies (Youth Contract; RPA)
But, a diverse cohort – unemployed, carers, economically inactive because of illness/disability

4. Sources, methods and questions
Cross-sectional analysis drawing on quarterly LFS datasets (2001, 2007, 2011). Quarter 1 datasets used.
Flows and durations analysis using longitudinal LFSs datasets
16-24s NEET cohort
Questions:
What are the characteristics of the NEET cohort before and after the recession?
Have the characteristics of NEETs changed over time and if so how?
What can the data tell us about distance from the labour market and barriers to work?

5. Increasing numbers are NEET: I
(Source: Labour Force Survey: Department for Education. England only)

6. Increasing numbers are NEET: II
(Source: Labour Force Survey: Department for Education. England only)

7. NEET characteristics: Ages
Number
Rate 16
36,000 6 17
49,000
7.8 18
93,000
14.9
19-24
780,000
18.7
Total
958,000
15.9
(Source: Labour Force Survey. Department for Education. Quarter )

8. NEET characteristics: Economic activity, %
2001
2007
2011
ILO unemployed 41 46 50
Inactive – looking after family/home 35 27 24
Inactive – long-term sick/disabled 6 8
TOTAL SEEKING WORK
(Source: Labour Force Survey)

9. NEET characteristics: Health and work
20% of NEETs reported a disability in 2007 (compared to 8% of EET)
Of those with a health condition in 2007:
13% cite depression (up from 6% in 2001)
11% have other mental health problems (up from 7% in 2001)
45% of NEETs had never held a paid job in 2007 (up from 39% in 2001).
Estimate ~50% of NEETs are long-term (over a year) in
long-term calculations from 5 quarter longitudinal Labour Force Survey datasets. *Combined estimates from Q – Q1 2008

10. NEET characteristics: Highest qualification - 2007
Qualifications
Cohort (%)
NEETs (%)
Degree of equivalent 10 7
Higher education or equivalent 3 2
A-levels or equivalent 33 13
GCSE A-C or equivalent 32
GCSE A-C– x5 18 9
Other qualifications 19
No qualifications 12 27
Long-term patterns even more pronounced- used 5 quarter datasets
(Source: Labour Force Survey)

11. NEET characteristics: Highest qualification - 2011
Qualifications
NEETs (n)
NEETs (%)
Degree of equivalent
57,000 7
Higher education or equivalent
19,000 2
A-levels or equivalent
167,000 19
GCSE A-C or equivalent
388,000 44
GCSE A-C– x5
91,000 10
Other qualifications
86,000
No qualifications
148,000 17
(Source: Labour Force Survey)

12. NEET characteristics: Regional picture

13. NEETs by city
Identified areas with high / low NEET levels in 2009 / 10

14. Longer-term labour market change: Occupations
Main occupation: year olds
1981
2011
Managers, Directors And Senior Officials 4% 3%
Professional Occupations
11% 7%
Associate Professional And Technical Occupations 2%
10%
Administrative And Secretarial Occupations
26%
Skilled Trades Occupations 8%
Caring, Leisure And Other Service Occupations -
12%
Sales And Customer Service Occupations 9%
22%
Process, Plant And Machine Operatives
28%
Elementary Occupations
(Source: Labour Force Survey)

15. Summary of NEETs findings
A large and growing problem
Distance from labour market varies, as do barriers to work
53% are seeking work (12% not seeking but would like work)
45% have no work experience
Qualifications key determinant of labour market experiences
NEETs less well-qualified
Pattern even more pronounced for long-term NEETs
Distinct geography
The labour market now:
Has fewer opportunities for those with no qualifications
More often requires good employability and soft skills to access entry level posts

16. Wider policy conclusions
Better coordination of services (clear ‘pathways’) –
Role for national, local gov and VS
Focus on prevention
Early attainment
Targeted case management
Grow best provision / information on what works
Reflect a changing labour market
Reflect a diverse cohort