1. 2017 New Jersey: A Status Report
James W. Hughes Ph.D.

6. Economic Forecaster

9. Dr. Kevorkian

10. Forecast 9 of Our Last 5 Recessions

12. The Business Cycle Roller Coaster Ride

13. The Business Cycle Roller Coaster Ride

14. Staring into the Economic Abyss

15. The Current Expansion
June 2009 – September 2017
99 Months in Length

17. Abducted by Aliens

18. Average Length of Post-World War II Expansions
The Current Expansion
June 2009 – September 2017
99 Months in Length
Average Length of Post-World War II Expansions
58 Months

19. Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building

20. The Current (2009-2017) Economic Expansion

21. U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)

22. U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)

23. U. S. Private-Sector Employment Change, 2009-2016 (Source: U. S
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Change, (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Employment change measured from December to December, seasonally adjusted.)

26. U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS

27. U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS
4.5 million

28. U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS
4.5 million
2.5 million

29. U.S. Job Openings: 2007-2017 (numbers in thousands)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - JOLTS
6.2 million
4.5 million
2.5 million

30. At Some Point in the Future: Here We Go Again

31. Albert

32. Our Beloved Garden State

33. New Jersey: The Elusive Recovery

34. Exiting the Great Recession

36. New Jersey Private-Sector Employment Change 2009 - 2016

38. Cautiously

39. Cautiously Pessimistic

40. Where Do We Stand Today?

41. Battle of the Baselines

42. Baseline 1 – Employment Change: Recession Low to Current
Change: September 2010 – December 2016 Total +267,800 jobs Private Sector +285,100 Government -17,300

43. Baseline 2 – Employment Change: Last Business Cycle Peak to Current
Change: January 2008 – December 2016 Total +9,200 jobs Private Sector +50,800 Government -41,600

44. Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak: Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay
Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Total Private +50,800 jobs $62,421 High-Paying Sectors Manufacturing -62,200 $78,579 Information -21,400 $105,012 Finance -24,400 $107,830 Prof & Business +41,400 $85,593 Services

45. Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay
Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Professional & +41,400 jobs $85,593 Business Services Prof., Sci., & Tech. +4,300 $106,404 Management of +5,900 $160,323 Companies & Ent. Administrative +31,200 $41,564 Support

46. Baseline 2 – From Last Cycle Peak Sector Detail & Average Annual Pay
Sector Employment Change Annual Pay Total Private +50,800 jobs $62,421 Low-Paying Sectors Educ. & Health Serv. +99,600 $51,432 Leisure & Hosp. +29,800 $24,490 Other Services +5,100 $33,938

48. Late 20th Century Go-Go Economy
Early 21st Century No-Go/Slow Go Economy

49. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated)
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

50. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated)
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

51. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated)
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

52. Demographic Paradigm Shift
Second Half of 20th Century
Demographic Paradigm Shift
First Half of 21st Century

53. 2017 Age-Defined Demographic Long Waves
BABY BOOM – Redefining Maturity (b )
GEN Y – Millennials Redefining the Workforce/ Workplace, and Residence Place (b )

54. Inter-Generational Workplace Tensions

55. The Fabled Baby Boom

56. The Largest Generation in U.S. History

57. Life Cycle Stages

58. Empty-Nesters Resizing in the Housing Market

59. 2017: The Great Calamity First Boomers are turning 71 years of age
All Boomers are between 53 and 71 years of age
More than 1/2 of all Boomers are in their 60s

60. Dropped Acid

61. Dropping Ant-Acids

62. Now a Back-Seat Passenger

63. We Will Not Go Away Quietly!

64. Bye-Bye Garden State

66. GEN Y / Millennials ( )

67. At Birth: First Digital Generation

68. Today (2017): 17 to 37 Years of Age

69. We Want 24-7 LWP Environments

70. The Digerati

71. Millennial (Gen Y) Housing Buying Power

72. Adult Children Living With Parents (2015)
Area Year Olds Living at Home United States 34%

73. Adult Children Living With Parents (2015)
Area Year Olds Living at Home United States 34% New Jersey 47%

74. The Garden State

75. Adult Children Living With Parents (2015)
Area Year Olds Living at Home United States 34% New Jersey 47% Outer Exurban Counties 55%

76. Two Types of Adults Left
The Not Yet Wed

77. Two Types of Adults Left
The Not Yet Wed
And
The Nearly Dead

79. Lagging Infrastructure Investment