1. ISI SATELLITE MEETING ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
Maputo, Mozambique August 2009
SESSION 4: DETERMINING A MENU OF INDICATORS AND A CORE SET OF DATA
Selecting indicators for monitoring and evaluation of agriculture and rural development in countries with weak statistical capacity
based on FAO/WB Sourcebook
Presentation by
Naman Keita, FAO

2. THREE PILLARS OF THE GLOBAL STRATEGY
MENU OF INDICATORS AND SET OF CORE DATA
INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS INTO NATIONAL STATISTICS SYSTEM
AGREED SUITE OF METHODOLOGIES FOR INTEGRATION

3. INDICATORS AND DATA/STATISTICS IN THE GLOBAL STRATEGY
An indicator provides a broad signal of change, direction, or state of being.
The statistics are the numbers that represent each indicator for a point in time, scope, and coverage
The data items are those needed to provide the statistics describing each indicator.
The data include the crop area, yield entering into the estimate of production of each crop, livestock numbers for meat production, etc.

4. FAO/WB SOURCEBOOK FOCUSES ON:
HOW TO MONITOR AND EVALUATE (MEASURE) THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICIES IN COUNTRIES WITH WEAK STATISTICAL CAPACITY
DEFINE A FRAMEWORK OF STANDARDISED APPROACHES FOR SELECTING INDICATORS
DEFINE A MENU OF 86 INDICATORS AND A LIST OF 19 PRIORITY INDICATORS FOR MONITORING AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES AT PROJECT, NATIONAL, REGIONAL GLOBAL LEVELS
DATA REQUIREMENT, SOURCES AND STATISTICAL CAPACITY :

5. LOGFRAME AND FREQUENCY OF MONITORING VARIOUS INDICATORS
Impact Indicators
(Ultimate goal)
Medium to Long Run (maybe 5 years by the time surveys are carried out)
Outcome Indicators
(behavioral change)
Medium Term - Ideally annually – maybe every 2 – 3 years
Output Indicators
(Goods and Services)
Short – Medium Term - Ideally more than once a year or annually
Input Indicators
(Material, financial, human)
Short Term - Ideally every three months or annually
Outcome and impact: RESULT INDICATORS

6. SELECTION OF INDICATORS
What makes a Good Indicator
S SPECIFIC and SENSITIVE to the changes induced as a result of actions taken
M MEASURABLE progress can be shown and is not easily manipulated
A ATTAINABLE and APPLICABLE to the policy action taken
R RELEVANT to the areas in question
T TIME BOUND and TRACKABLE by showing changes over time
MAIN CRITERIA USED TO SELECT 19 PRIORITY INDICATORS:
RELEVANCE (FOR SUB SECTORS ONLY ONE WAS SELECTED)
COMPARABILITY
AVAILABILITY (BASED ON COUNTRY STUDIES AND VALIDATIONS)

7. NINETEEN PRIORITY INDICATORS (SELECTED FROM MENU OF 86)1
Public spending on agriculture as a % of GDP from agriculture sector 11
% of the rural population using financial services of formal banking institutions 2
Public spending on agricultural input subsidies as a percentage of total public spending on agriculture 12
Public investment in agricultural research as a % of GDP from agriculture sector 3
Prevalence (%) of underweight children under five years of age in rural areas 13
Irrigated land as a % of crop land 4
Food production index 14
% change in sales/ turnovers of agro-enterprises 5
% annual growth in agricultural value added 15
% of farmers who are members of producer organizations 6
Rural poor as a proportion of total poor population 16
Agricultural withdrawal as % of total freshwater withdrawal 7
% change in yields of major crops of the country 17
Proportion (%) of land area formally established as protected area 8
% annual growth in value added in the livestock sub-sector 18
% change in soil loss from watersheds 9
Capture fish production as % of existing stock ( or a rating of state of major capture fish stocks relevant to exports and local food) REPLACED BY
% change in capture and aquaculture fish production used for human food 19
% land area for which there exists a legally recognized form of land tenure 10
Proportion of land area covered by forest (%)

8. MENU OF INDICATORS, DATA REQUIREMENTS, DATA SOURCES AND TECHNICAL NOTES
INDICATORS, DATA REQUIREMENTS, DATA SOURCES (EXAMPLE 6 SECTOR WIDE INDICATORS)
Indicator
data requirements
Data Sources
Sector Wide indicators for agriculture and rural development
Public spending on agriculture, subsidies, and infrastructure
Government budget allocations, and spending related to agriculture. Agriculture includes forestry and fisheries
Ministry of Finance, National Accounts, Planning commissions, Donor reports
Public spending on rural infrastructure including health and education
Government budget allocations, and spending related rural areas
Percent of rural children that are underweight compared to national level
Anthropometric data
Anthropometric Surveys
Food production index, food security
Area, production and yield for food crops, livestock numbers and production of meat, milk, eggs, fish captured and cultured, and other food products, non-food use of food products, food imports and exports
Agricultural Census, surveys of agricultural enterprises, processors, fish landings, administrative data such as imports, exports. Food Balances and Household consumption surveys
GDP growth from Agriculture value added.
Estimates of total production and value for all commodities produced in the country; including that from small holders/household plots minus estimates of the cost of inputs such as seed, feed, energy, fertilizer, labor, etc. Agriculture includes forestry and fisheries
Censuses and surveys agricultural enterprises, farm and rural households, administrative and processor. data
Rural poor as a percent of total poor population
Household income and consumption estimates for national poverty lines. Purchasing Power Parities for comparisons across countries
Household Surveys. International Comparison Program for comparisons across countries

9. CORE SET OF DATA RECOMMENDED IN THE GLOBAL STRATEGY

10. MAIN DATA SOURCES Surveys vs. non-formal appraisal methods
Participant
observation
Sentinel site
surveillance
Beneficiary
assessment
LSMS
Household budget
survey
Fish landing Surveys
Censuses
CWIQ
Community
Surveys
Windscreen
P.P.A
Direct measurement
Questionnaire
(quantitative)
(Qualitative)
Structured
interview
Open
meetings
Subjective
assessments
Conversations
Case
study
Purposive
selection
Quota
sampling
Small prob.
sample
Large prob.
Census

11. KEY FEATURES OF DIFFERENT SURVEYS AND INDICATIVE COST1 2 3 4 5
Sample size
Duration
Visits to household
Question-naire size
Cost ($m)
Population census
Full coverage
3-6 months
4-8
15-25
Agricultural census/survey
20 000-50 000
1-1.5 years
2-4
8-12
5-10
LSMS/integrated survey
5 000-10 000
40+
1-2
Household budget survey 4 
15-20
Community survey
4-6 months
4-6
Service delivery survey (CWIQ)
10 000-15 000
2-3 months 8
Focus group interviews
40-50
1-3 -
Windscreen survey
10-20
2-3 weeks
0.01

12. A TEN YEAR CYCLE OF DATA COLLECTION ACTIVITIES
Instruments and Sources
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Census of agriculture
Periodic agricultural production survey
Farm management survey
Rural household income—expenditure survey
Food consumption survey
Survey of post—harvest losses
Survey of agric. service establishments S
Rural labour force survey
Soil survey
Livestock census 1!
Special agricultural censuses and surveys 12
Census of population and housing 13
Demographic survey 14
Census of industrial establishments 15
Survey of rural household industries 16
Urban household income—expenditure survey

13. CONCLUDING REMARKS
1. IMPORTANCE OF LINKING DATA USERS AND PRODUCERS FOR: - relevance - avoiding duplication  FAO/WB STUDY FOUND THAT M&E AND STATISTICS SYSTEMS ARE DISCONNECTED IN MOST OF THE 5 PILOT COUNTRIES 2. CHALLENGES OF DECENTRALISATION AND CORRESPONDING DATA REQUIREMENT AND NEED FOR METHOGOLOGICAL RESPONSES (Small area estimation, better use of administrative data etc..) 3. SELECTION OF INDICATORS: DOES THE STATISTICS SYSTEM HAS THE CAPACITY? NEED FOR INTEGRATED STATISTICAL PROGRAMME WITH CORRESPONDING STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING COMPONENT 4. NINETEEN PRIORITY INDICATORS OF FAO/WB SOURCEBOOK PROPOSED AS STARTING POINT FOR MENU OF INDICATORS IN GLOBAL STRATEGY

14. THANK YOU OBRIGADO