2. Global Change
Lessons from History

3. Global Change Changes in geologic history Climate Change
Soils
Oceans
Atmosphere
Climate Change
Global Warming

4. Rate of Δ Non-linear changes All causes of Δ are not equal
All changes are not equal

5. Millenium Ecosystem Assessment

6.
-released in scientists commissioned by UN to comprehensively analyze the state of the global environment -assessed the state of 25 major “ecosystem services” (food production, forests, fisheries, climate regulation, etc.) that Nature provides for life on Earth
-conclusion: 16 out of 25 are being used unsustainably. 16 of 25!

7. MEA Summary:
“At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning. Human activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.”

8. Anthropogenic Change Burning of fossil fuels Agricultural CFC  HCFC
CO2
particulate matter
Agricultural
Methane
NOx
CFC  HCFC
Deforestation

10. World deforestation rates and forest cover statistics, 2000-2005
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its 2005 Global Forest Resources Assessment, a regular report on the status world's forest resources. Overall, FAO concludes that net deforestation rates have fallen since the period, but
-some 13 million hectares of the world's forests are still lost each year, including 6 million hectares of primary forests.
Primary forests -- forests with no visible signs of past or present human activities -- are considered the most biologically diverse ecosystems on the planet. Read more: forests.html#ixzz1ewPyQ05z

12. The impact of humans on continental erosion and sedimentation
erosion as a result of human activity, primarily through agricultural practices, has resulted in a sharp increase in net rates of continental denudation;
data on thicknesses and ages of alluvial sediment that has been deposited immediately downslope from eroding croplands over the history of human agriculture show that:
Accumulation of post settlement alluvium on higher-order tributary channels and floodplains is the most important geomorphic process in terms of the erosion and deposition of sediment that is currently shaping the landscape of Earth. It far exceeds even the impact of Pleistocene continental glaciers or the current impact of alpine erosion by glacial and/or fluvial processes.

14. Melting of arctic ice arctic arctic ide

17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body[1][2] which provides:
comprehensive assessments of current worldwide about the risk of climate change based upon
scientific,
technical and
socio-economic information
its potential consequences on
environmental and
socio-economic
possible options for
adapting to these consequences, or
mitigating the effects

18. IPCC 2007
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”

19. Responsible Scientists
“Human-caused climate change is not a belief, a hoax, or a conspiracy. It is a physical reality. Fossil fuels powered the Industrial Revolution. But the burning of oil, coal, and gas also caused most of the historical increase in atmospheric levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. This increase in greenhouse gases is changing Earth’s climate.”

21. Global CO2 emissions rising faster than worst-case scenarios (Nov 2011)

23. Keeling Curve

30. Correlation ≠ Causation
Does increasing CO2 cause a rise in temperature?
Does increasing temperature cause a rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere?
Scientists correlate other GHG with CO2 levels.

31. Feedback Loops Negative Feedback Loops Positive Feedback Loops
Work to maintain a ‘set point’,
as in organisms = blood sugar, body temp, etc
CO2  absorption by plants
Positive Feedback Loops
Reinforces movement in same direction
Warming, melting, lower albedo, melting, anaerobic decay, CH4….

32. Not all GHGs created equally!!!

36. Consequences to Environment
Polar Ice caps
NW passage, increase drilling, (+ feedback)
Glaciers
Reservoirs

37. Consequences to Environment
Permafrost
Sea Level Rise
Salt water intrusion
Erosion
100M people w/in 1meter

38. Consequences to Environment
Weather Changes
Heat waves/cold spells
Precipitation
Storm Intensity
Ocean Currents

41. Changes to Life Increased growing season Ranges move N & S
Migration and fractured habitats
Rates of Δ-v- migration
Δ in human disease
Relocation of 1B people?