1. Range Cost Estimates Estimating Accuracy Trumpet
Point estimates are almost always wrong.
Range estimates show risk and uncertainty as well as most likely.
Point estimate for funding is “most likely” from the range estimate.
OSD AT&L now requires two estimates at each oversight review:
Upper bound “will-cost” for funding
Lower bound “should-cost” for baseline and program execution
Concept
Refinement
System Development
& Demonstration
Production & Deployment
Operations & Support
Technology Development
Concept Decision
Design Readiness Review
FRP Decision Review A B C
FOC
IOC
Analogy
Parametric
Actuals
Engineering
Cost Estimating Techniques
MDAP Process

2. Range Cost Estimates – In Working
Estimating Accuracy Trumpet
Point estimates are almost always wrong.
Range estimates show risk and uncertainty as well as most likely.
Point estimate for funding is “most likely” from the range estimate.
OSD AT&L now requires two estimates at each oversight review:
Upper bound “will-cost” for funding
Lower bound “should-cost” for baseline and program execution A B C
IOC
FOC
Concept
Refinement
Technology Development
System Development
& Demonstration
Production & Deployment
Operations & Support
MDAP Process
Design Readiness Review
FRP Decision Review
Concept Decision
Analogy
Parametric
Actuals
Engineering
Cost Estimating Techniques