1. Mitigation and Adaptation
How Does Adaptation Fit Into the State’s Climate Change Action Plan?
Joe Sherrick
PA Department of Environmental Protection
“Adapting to Climate Change in PA - Planning for the Future of our Natural Resources”
April 30, 2010

2. Climate Change Action Plan
Requirement of Act 70
Final report was published on December 18, 2009
Required elements:
Impacts Assessment
Inventory & Projections
Mitigation Opportunities
Macroeconomic Assessment
What about Adaptation???

3. Emissions Scenarios “High” emissions A2 scenario
(Annual)
“High” emissions A2 scenario
“Low” emissions B1 scenario

4. Impacts Assessment Highlights
Warmer and wetter
Greater intensity but reduced frequency of precip
Greater precipitation in winter than summer
More of this in winter
Less of this
All GCM models project warming through 2100 for high and low emissions scenarios
Committed to certain amount of warming through mid-century
Average summer precipitation increases 0-5% by mid-century
Average winter precipitation increases 5-10% by mid-century

5. Ecosystems Increasingly Stressed
Wetlands and headwater streams in Pennsylvania are already compromised in their ability to provide ecosystem services
Climate change will increase stresses on aquatic ecosystems
Increased stream temperatures
Increased flow variability
Impacts will be difficult to detect because of the continuation of other stressors such as development and invasive species

6. Agriculture Moderate warming (1 to 3ºC)…
Could increase yields of some major field crops (corn, hay, soybeans)
Could harm yields of cool-temperature adapted fruits and vegetables (potatoes, and apples)
Could harm American grape varieties but create opportunities for European varieties
Is expected to increase dairy production costs but increase the attractiveness of PA to southern hog and poultry producers
Could increase droughts; pests could be more problematic

7. Forests
Shift in composition as the climate becomes more suited to southern species
Disease, invasive species, fire risks also increase
Northern
Southern
American Beech
Loblolly
Black Cherry
Shortleaf Pine
Eastern Hemlock
Common Persimmon
Red and Sugar Maple
Red Mulberry
White Pine
Oaks & Hickories

8. PA Emissions & Forecast
Still more than half of all generation comes from coal.
Increases in renewable capacity have not kept pace with overall increases in generation.

9. Emissions Target & Reductions
Establishes a 30% reduction target below 2000 by 2020
Recent state & federal actions combined with work plan recommendations yield 39% reduction
Includes 55 specific work plan measures and recent actions in 7 broad sectors (57 measures considered)
Electricity Gen/Trans/Dist
Residential & Commercial (buildings)
Land Use & Transportation
Industry
Waste
Agriculture
Forestry

10. PA Reductions from Recent and Proposed Measures

11. Macroeconomic Assessment
Total Impact to Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (42 recommendations and recent actions)
$6 billion added to GSP
65,000 additional jobs
Biggest winners are Residential/Commercial and Industrial Sectors. Operation of Residential/Commercial buildings consumes ~33% of all electricity.
Biggest loser is Electricity Sector, largely due to CHP economics; also new nuclear generation and CCS.
EGTD loses ~8 thousand jobs; TLU loses ~7 thousand jobs.

12. Shifting Climate Zones

13. Mitigation vs. Adaptation
“Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. With respect to climate change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.”
Adaptation =
“Adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects in order to minimize harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities”

14. Statewide Adaptation Process
Initiated at Kick Off meeting on March 24
Purpose - Bring together key stakeholders to discuss the priorities and provide practical recommendations
Bimonthly meetings through 2010
March 2011 presentation of white paper and emphasize the need to keep the process evolving (not once and done)
Four issues will frame discussions with stakeholders:
ID key areas of vulnerability and risk
ID efforts to address vulnerability and risk
Provide practical recommendations
ID information, data gaps & opportunities for collaboration

15. Statewide Adaptation Process
Co-chairs will lead each of the working groups
Two co-chairs, ideally one from state agency and one from non-government organization
Working groups:
Natural resources (forests, agriculture, surface water)
Public Health and Safety (public health, emergency response, economically depressed communities)
Infrastructure (transportation, land use, water,
energy, insurance)
Tourism and Outdoor Recreation (regional tourism, hunting and fishing organizations, ski resorts)

16. Climate Change Adaptation Working Group Flow Diagram

17. Practical Recommendations Sought, Not…

18. Questions? Joe Sherrick Climate Change Program Manager
PA DEP, Office of Energy & Technology Deployment
Key word: Climate