1. David Garrett
decision analysis services

2. decision analysis services
We exist to enable informed and robust decision-making by owners and operators of critical national infrastructure.
Independent consultancy
Based in UK and Australia
Clients on 4 continents
Primary focus on Defence, Energy, Transport and wider Government
decision analysis services

3. Operating & Support Cost Analysis Model
Used to generate operating and support cost estimates for US DoD equipment programs At its core is a System Dynamics simulation that determines the costs generated each month of the lifecycle based on the status and activities of equipment

4. First OSCAM models developed in 1996 as a joint program between the US DoD and UK MoD
Reduction in defence budgets, resulting in a need for greater efficiencies
Scale of O&S phase expenditure
Recognised limitations of existing tools & methods

5. Operating & Support costs
Introductions, Retirements
Overhauls, Mods, Emergency repair
Operating hours, Fuel, Ordnance, etc
Squadron or shipboard maintenance
People, Infrastructure, Sustainment
Equipment in fleet
Depot downtime
OpTempo
Calculated non-cost
Maintenance
O&S cost forecasting generally recognised as a difficult area
Scale and diversity of factors affecting cost
Complexity of behaviour / interrelationships
Uncertainties associated with long planning horizons

6. “If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a non-working cat”
- Douglas Adams

7. System Dynamics A Systemic Approach capturing the “whole”
often high level
includes “management”
Time Evolutionary View
not static
system behaviour

8. Illustrate the interactions between a large number of variables
Shipyard Level Maintenance
Shipyard Actions Outstanding
Rate Shipyard Complete Actions
Rate Incur Shipyard Actions Downtime
Duration of Shipyard Actions
Capacity To Undertake Actions
System Age
Operational Stress
Total Systems In Service
Shipyard Actions / System / Year
Rate Incur Shipyard Actions
Shipyard Cost / System / Year
Rate Incur Shipyard Actions Cost
Cost / Action + -
Influence Diagrams
Illustrate the interactions between a large number of variables
May reveal the likely dynamics of the system under study
A precursor to SD simulation models and also to communicate simulation model structure

9. Representing the business
process

13. The suite of OSCAM tools provides:
Business process analysis
A time based simulation of equipment operation that allows cost databases to be used for forward projection
The ability to assess and understand O&S costs and drivers
The ability to explore new strategies for reducing O&S costs
A method of prioritising data collection
Typical usage
Milestone submissions for procurement
In-service annual cost submissions
Analysis of Alternatives
Bespoke Studies

14. Ohio replacement
Virginia Class Block III Upgrade
LPD
LCS
DDG-1000
JHSV
Unmanned Naval Surface Combatant
Coast Guard National Security Cutter & Off-shore Patrol Cutter

15. F-35 Lightning II
V-22 Osprey
Fire Scout MQ-8B
E/A-18G Growler
P-8A Poseidon
E-2D Advanced Hawkeye

16. Characteristics of a good cost estimate?

17. OSCAM has been described by the US Navy as providing an “order of magnitude change in the ability to undertake operating and support cost analysis.
Turn-around times for answering what-if questions for milestone questions has changed from days to hours”

18. decision analysis services
David Garrett
BEng MBA FIEAust CPEng NER MAPM MCIPS
Managing Director
+61 (0)
decision analysis services