1. Mission Briefing on the World Drug Report 2012

2. Features of the Report Slim
More data, tables, maps on the web and annexed CD
Two chapters:
Recent statistics and trend analysis of illicit drug markets
The Contemporary drug problem: characteristics, patterns and driving factors

3. ….but changes below the surface…..
No significant change in global status quo on drug use and health consequences
Opium production returned to high levels in 2011 after the disease of opium poppy in Afghanistan in 2010
….but changes below the surface…..
Prevalence of HIV: 20% of IDU
Prevalence of Hepatitis C: about 50%
Prevalence of Hepatitis B: 15%
Total number of deaths: 99, ,000 in 2010, similar to 2009
Cannabis continues to be the most used drug at 2.6-5% ( ml)
ATS: % (14-52ML)
Opioids: (26-36 ml), half are opiates users (13-21ml)
Cocaine: (13-19ml)
Ecstasy: (10-28ml)

4. Opiate Market: one year after the opium crop failure in Afghanistan

5. An apparent imbalance in global supply and demand of Opiates
Underestimation of the global level of opiate consumption?
Asia and Africa account for 70% of the estimated global number of opiates use, but they lack reliable data
Increased law enforcement activities?
Expansion of the raw opium market?

6. Cocaine: Shift in producing countries translated into a reduction in North America and a shift in European countries
Number of seizures cases in Europe originating in coca producing countries

7. Cocaine: Emerging and expanding markets
Cocaine seizures in selected South American countries
Sub-regions with increasing cocaine seizures

8. Cannabis: herb and resin

9. Cannabis: Europe: a market in transition?
Change in cannabis resin seizures /
Main source countries of cannabis resin

10. Amphetamine-type stimulants seizures are stable in 2010
Source: Annual report questionnaire supplemented by other official sources.
a Including seized amphetamine, “ecstasy”-type substances, methamphetamine, non-specified amphetamine-type stimulants, other stimulants and prescription stimulants. For the categories of other stimulants and prescription stimulants, seizures reported by weight or volume only are included.

11. Methamphetamine market increases
Methamphetamine tablets seized in East and South-East Asia,
Global seizures: 45 tons
44 per cent increase over 2009
Reason: high seizures in Mexico, East and South-East Asia
Higher than amphetamine seizures first time since 2006
Expansion in the European market
Source: Based on data collected by the Drug Abuse Information Network for Asia and the Pacific, including data for Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, the Lao’s People Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.

12. Amphetamine market declines
Amphetamine seized worldwide and in the Near and Middle East/South-West Asia,
Global seizures: 19 tons
42 per cent decline
Reason: large decline in seizures in the Near and Middle East and South-West Asia.
Europe: seizures fall but number of seized amphetamine laboratories rises (44 per cent)
Source: Annual report questionnaire supplemented by other official sources.

13. “Ecstasy” market recovers
“Ecstasy” seizures, by region,
Global seizures: 3.8 tons
Increasing seizures in :East and South-East Asia (31 per cent), Oceania, Europe (seizures double)
United States: increase in availability and use
Indication of polydrug manufacture, “ecstasy” manufacturing in illicit methamphetamine laboratories
Source: Annual report questionnaire supplemented by other officia sources.

14. New Threat: New psychoactive substances
Mimic effects of illicit stimulants (e.g. “ecstasy”, amphetamines)
Not controlled by the United Nations drug control treaties
Reported in: Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, New Zealand, North America
Ketamine, piperazines (BZP), synthetic cathinones (mephedrone), synthetic cannabinoids (‘spice’), plant-based substances (Kratom)

15. The contemporary illicit drug problem
What are its fundamental characteristics ?
How have its patterns shifted over time ?
Which factors shape its evolution ?

16. The effect of the drug control system on the level of use

17. The theory : the effect of drug control on the supply and demand equilibrium
ILLICIT PRODUCT (controlled)
Equilibrium
LICIT PRODUCT
Source: UNODC, World Drug Report 2012, June 2012

18. Global opium production in metric tons, 1906/1907 - 2010
42,600
-78%
16,600
9,300
World population:
1900: billion 2010: billion
Sources: Report of the International Opium Commission, Shanghai, China, Feb. 1909, Vol. II, INCB, Narcotics Report, Narcotic Drugs: Estimated World Requirements for 2012 – Statistics for 2010 and previous years, UNODC, A Century of International Drug Control (2009), UNODC, World Drug Report 2011 and previous years.

19. Prevalence of use of licit and illicit psychoactive substances
A L C O H O L
T O B A C C O
I L L I C I T D R U G S

20. Deaths related to the use of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs
Number of annual deaths
related to substance abuse
2.3
millions
5.1
0.2
million
As a percent of all deaths
3.6 %
8.7 %
0.4 %
Source: World Health Organization, Global Health Risks: Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risks (Geneva, 2009).

21. An age containment effect?

22. United States: age distribution of past month use of licit and illicit psychoactive substances, 2010
ALCOHOL
TOBACCO
ILLICIT DRUGS
Source: United States, Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Detailed Tables (Rockville, Maryland, September 2011).

23. Germany: prevalence of licit and illicit psychoactive substances, by age group*, (Index: age 18-24=100)
ALCOHOL
TOBACCO
CANNABIS
Source: Based on data from A. Pabst and others, “Substanzkonsum und substanzbezogene Störungen: Ergebnisse des Epidemiologischen Suchtsurveys 2009”, Sucht – Zeitschrift für Wissenschaft und Praxis, vol. 56, No. 5 (2010).
* Data for prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use based on past-month use; data for prevalence of cannabis use based on annual use.

24. Age distribution of khat users in Yemen and cannabis users in the USA
Source: World Bank, “Yemen towards qat demand reduction”, report No YE (June 2007); United States, Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Detailed Tables (Rockville, Maryland, September 2011).

25. How is the drug problem likely to evolve in the future?

26. OUTLOOK the likely the possible the unknown
based on demographic predictions (population growth, urbanization, age structure, gender etc):
Stable prevalence rates will bring another 65 millions users by 2050
Stabilization in developed countries
Increase in developing countries
the possible
partly based on trends observed in recent years
Decline of main problem drugs – heroin and cocaine
No decline in cannabis use – stabilization/decline in some major markets but increases in emerging markets
Some increases in ATS, diverted prescription drugs and (synthetic) substances not currently under international control
the unknown

27. THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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