1. Quarterly Economic Update with Dr
Quarterly Economic Update with Dr. Bruce Yandle Monday, December 4, 2017

2. The Economic Situation
Bruce Yandle
Mercatus Center
December 4, 2017

6. North Korea vs. South Korea
2014 Per Capita Income
= $583
2014 Per Capita Income
= $27,801

8. 2016 County Economic Recovery from the Great Recession

10. The Trump Transition From Globalization to Nationalism
From Environmentalism to Reindustrialization & Commonwealth Protection
From Washington will Fix it to Look Homeward or in the Mirror for Solutions

11. The Economic Situation
The Roller Coaster Economy:
Sleep Walking? Expansion? Recession?

14. Grandma’s GDP Bakery Grandma’s Famous GDP Recipe
Mix together Labor Force Growth and Growth in Labor Productivity as found raw in the economy.
Stir in mixing bowl.
Bake at 4.6% unemployment for 9 months.
Grandma’s GDP Bakery

16. Percent Change from Year Ago
1/2000 – 9/2017
0.7%

17. 2Q2017: 0.9% annual rate of increase.
1.2% year-over-year increase.

22. There were more than 6 million job openings in October 2017.
Number of Unemployed Persons per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted

24. November 19, 2017.
1Q2013 – 3Q2017

25. November 29, 2017.
3Q2017
- 0.44%

26. “This year the shortfall of inflation from 2 per cent…is more of a mystery.
I will not say that the committee clearly understands what the causes of that are.”
Janet Yellen refuses to be thwarted by low-inflation mystery. Financial Times. September 21,

27. November 19, 2017.
Growth in Excess Reserve Earnings & Commercial & Industrial Loans: 1Q2014 – 3Q2017

28. Here’s the picture that I see for the U.S. for 2018-2019:
GDP growth will be in the range 2.3% - 2.5%.
Inflation will rise a bit. Look for 2.2% – 2.5%.
Interest rates will nudge up. 10-yr. bond: 2.60%-3.10%. Mortgage rate: 4.10%- 4.30%.
Housing will be strong; autos down.
The pace of manufacturing activity will accelerate from hardly moving to slow, led by machinery.

29. The Geographic Imprint
LOOKING FOR GOOD NEWS
NASA. April – October, 2012.

30. Population Growth by State
Average Annual Percentage Change:
NC: 1.47% US: 1.08%
SC: 1.33%

31. Population Growth by State
Average Annual Percent Change, 2015
NC: 1.03%
SC: %
US: %

39. When they vote with their feet, where do they head?
Voting with their Feet
When they vote with their feet, where do they head?

40. Where Young College Graduates Tend to Move
Net Migration Rate (%) WI AR PA KY OK OH MS IN TN MN MT WV AL NJ NE KS ID HI
2000–2015 MO MA NY WY ME NM LA MI IA VA TX AZ AK NH WA OR 1 -2 -4 CO MD SC UT VT CT SD IL FL ND NV NC CA GA 2 1
Pa.
Wis.
Del.
Ky.
Okla.
Ark.
Ohio
Minn.
Ind.
Mont.
W.Va.
Miss.
Ala.
N.J.
Kan.
Mo.
Neb.
Idaho
Hawaii
Mass.
La.
Wyo.
N.Y.
Me.
N.M.
Tenn.
Mich.
Ariz.
Va.
Alaska
N.H.
Md.
Tex.
Wash. -2 -4
Colo.
Ore.
S.C.
Nev.
Conn.
Utah
S.D.
Ill.
Iowa
Vt.
Fla.
N.C.
Calif.
Ga.
N.D. 2
Where Young College Graduates Tend to Move
Net migration of college educated people under 40
Net Migration Rate (%), 2000–2015

42. Sleepwalking? Expansion? Recession?
It’s a matter of choice.

43. Bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems