1. Philippines HAIR Shampoo
Marketing Mix Models

2. [3] [2] [1] OBJECTIVE Category Context Data Validation Hypothesis-
For Business problems
Data
Validation

3. Data Summary Data Summary Data Period Units Periodicity/Details Volume
Jan’09 to Dec’12
(in Liters)
Monthly
Value
(in ‘000 Pesos)
Price
(Pesos/Liter)
Distribution
July’10 to Dec’12
% age
Monthly /NumD and
WtdD
Media
Jan’10 to Dec’12
Normalized 30sec TVGRPs and Spends in Pesos
TVGRPS, print and Radio spends- monthly
Finance Data NA
Modeling Period will be from Jan’10 to Dec’12

4. DATA VALIDATION Data Validation Number of data points for Modeling
Volume Trend
Media GRP’s
Promotion data

5. Data VALIDATION Data Summary Data Validation No. of Data points
36 data points which meet the MMM criteria of minimum 30 data points for regression
Distribution data available from Jul-10 (30 data points) need to extrapolate and arrive at the data
Volume Trend & Price
Category Volumes slightly on the rise whereas Category value fairly stable
MT & GT combined contributed to approximately 100% of the total volumes.
Media
Data available for all major brands(own and Competitor). TVGRPS, Print Spends, Radio Spends and TV Spends
Promotion (Available only for 2011 and 2012)
Data
Validation

6. Store - Formats (MT & GT) and Brands Price ranges and penetration
Category context
Category
Context
Philippines Market Overview
Shampoo Overview
Store - Formats (MT & GT) and Brands
Trend and seasonality
Category profile
Brands and Formats
Market share
Price ranges and penetration

7. Shampoo Category Overview
Market overview
Macro Economic Trend
Population
Data Summary
As of 2010 more than 50% of population stay in Urban Philippines & the rate of urbanization is expected to grow at 2.3%( est.)
Philippines middle class population is growing at 9% per year and is expected to be 1/5th of the total population by 2015.
GDP per capita is at around US$4100 (PPP) in 2011
GDP growth was at around 6.6% (2012), a sharp jump from 3.9% in 2011
Inflation rate is low at 3.0% in 2012, lower than the 4.7% experienced in 2011
PDI growth has been at 5.5% in 2012 an increase from 3.3% growth in 2011
Shampoo Category Overview
Philippines Volume sales growth increased in MAT-12 by 3.3% from a 2.1% growth in MAT-10
Top 8 players account for 94% of the Total Shampoo Category
MT accounts for approximately 53% and GT contributes the remaining 47% in the last MAT.
Share of MT in Total Trade increasing over periods.

8. Category: price cuts have led to a volume growth
Volume in Million liters
Value in million pesos
Price in pesos/liters
3.3%
-0.8%
1.7%
2.1%
-1.5%
1.3%
Price cuts along last two MATS have caused a low increase in value and moderate increase in volume for the category
MAT’10-Jan’10 to Dec’10 MAT11- Jan’11 to Dec’11 MAT12- Jan’12 to Dec’12

9. Category: Steady TREND Growths in value and Volume
Data Summary
Volume growth showing a moderate increase with a decline in prices

10. Category by STORE FORMATS : MT contributes to 52% of total trade
Value
Volume
Data Summary
On an average in the last MAT, MT forms 53% of the Category Volume and value, whereas GT forms the remaining 47%.
Share of Modern Trade in Value and volumes has rapidly picked up over years

11. Category by PACK type: Sachets Driving sales in Philippines
Sachet on an average forms 82% of the total shampoo category whereas Bottles form the remaining 18%.
Sachets driving shampoo volumes in Philippines. Bottles have been stable in MAT’12 after a decline in previous MATs
Sachets are drivers for major brands as well.

12. Seasonality: December spikes observed across years
Data Summary
Volume in Liters

13. Major players: Volume Trend
Palmolive is the market leader with 23% vol. share, H&S is the second biggest with 15.2% vol. share.
Possible interaction of Vaseline with Palmolive, H&S and Rejoice.
Sunsilk volumes on the decline
Clear volumes picking up over the last 1 and a half year.
Data Summary
Significant presence of Dove since Jan’12
Palmolive volumes increasing over the last 8 months
Rejoice volumes on the rise. Possibly reacting with Vaseline, Clear and Pantene
Pantene volumes picking up again after a mid period decline

14. Sunsilk has strong competition from Palmolive and Rejoice
Average Price in Pesos
( Pesos/liter)
Size of circle shows the size(volume) of brand
Rejoice
Vaseline Cheaper than most major brands
MASS

15. VOLUME Split By Store Format: Most Brands are bigger in MT
Volume in Million litres
Rejoice
Vaseline and Palmolive are bigger in GT, though share in MT has been picking up over the years
Rejoice growth being driven through General Trade.
Pantene, H&S, Sunsilk and Clear are larger in MT
Dove growing faster in MT than GT
Pantene
Head &
Shoulders
Palmolive
Vaseline
Dove
Clear
Sunsilk

16. VOLUME Split By Pack TYPE: ALL Brands are bigger in SACHETS
Data Summary
Volume in ‘000 litres
All Brands have higher presence in sachets
Head and Shoulders biggest in bottles whereas Palmolive biggest in sachets

17. VolUME Split by Variants: Unilever Brands
Data Summary
Vaseline declining in both Beauty and Anti-Dandruff
Sunsilk’s decline caused due to a decline in Damage Repair, Anti-Dandruff and Hair fall Control.
Sunsilk growing in Beauty
Clear is exclusively an Anti-Dandruff Brand

18. Volume Split by Variants: Competitor Brands
Data Summary
Rejoice Driven through Beauty Shampoo Sales
Rejoice growing in Anti-Dandruff too
Palmolive being driven by Beauty variant as well
Pantene ‘s decline caused due to beauty and Anti-dandruff
Pantene growing in Damage Repair and Hair fall control after mid period decline
H&S exclusively an Anti-Dandruff brand

19. Category Context: Vol. and VAL. SHARE
Data Summary
Volume Share
Value Share
Competitors
Rejoice gaining value and volume share over MATs but the rate of growth has been less in MAT 12
Pantene losing val. and vol. share over the last MATs
Palmolive have more or less maintained vol. share
but lost val. share probably due to decline in price.
Unilever Brands
Sunsilk losing val. and value share in last MAT
Dove gaining prominence in both val. And vol. share in last MAT
Vaseline showing sharp declines in val. and vol. share
Clear has maintained val. And vol. share over last MAT

20. Category context: Quarterly VOL. Share:
Data Summary
Sunsilk has lost share since Q1’11
Vaseline has lost share drastically since Q4-10 after initial quarters of growth
Dove has grown phenomenally since Q1-2012
Clear has maintained stable quarterly share after initial periods of decline

21. Category context: VOL. share interactions
Sunsilk
Clear
Vaseline
Data Summary
Sunsilk interacting with Rejoice and Palmolive
Clear Vol MS not interacting with H&S
Vaseline interacting significantly with Rejoice

22. MT FORMAT: vol. share and interactions
Sunsilk losing share despite gain in volumes
Palmolive gaining volumes as well as shares
Possibility of Palmolive interacting with sunsilk
Rejoice gaining significantly
Pantene losing share in last MAT in MT
Vaseline volumes on a decline
Clear losing Share despite an increase in volume in last MAT.
Data Summary

23. GT FORMAT: vol. share and interactions
Sunsilk losing share and volumes in last MAT
Palmolive gaining volumes and share in last MAT
Possibility of Palmolive, Vaseline and Rejoice interacting with Sunsilk
Rejoice gaining significantly over quarters
Pantene losing share in last MAT in MT
Vaseline volumes constantly on a decline
Clear gaining in last MAT after initial loss in shares
Dove gaining over quarters

24. Most shampoo brands getting Cheaper in MAT’12
Data Summary
Average Price in pesos/liter
Premium?
Mass?
Masstige?
Most brands cutting price in MAT-12 vs. YA except Vaseline, H&S and Pantene.
It is possible that consumers are shifting from brands like Vaseline which have become more expensive to relatively closely price brands given higher disposable in 2012.

25. Price By Store Formats: Most brands cheaper in MT
Data Summary
Average Price in pesos/liter for MAT’12
All major brands priced higher in GT except Clear.
Sizeable price difference in MT and GT for Sunsilk, Dove and Palmolive

26. Sunsilk APPEARS insensitive to pricE
Data Summary
Correl : 0.24
Correl : -0.61
Overall
Sunsilk does not appear to be price sensitive.
Clear fairly sensitive to price
Vaseline volumes highly sensitive to price
MT and GT
At the MT level, Sunsilk and Clear are moderately sensitive to price. Vaseline is highly sensitive
At the GT level, Sunsilk appears to be price insensitive, whereas Clear is moderately sensitive and Vaseline Is highly sensitive
Correl :

27. Pantene, rejoice and Palmolive price sensitive
Data Summary
Overall
H&S appears mildly sensitive to price whereas Palmolive appears moderately sensitive.
Pantene and Rejoice volumes highly sensitive to price
MT and GT
At the MT level, Palmolive and Rejoice are highly sensitive to price. Pantene is moderately sensitive. H&S is insensitive to price
At the GT level, Palmolive appears to be price insensitive, whereas H&S and Pantene are moderately sensitive and Rejoice is highly sensitive.

28. RPI Interactions for unilever Brands
Data Summary
Sunsilk
Clear
Sunsilk interacting with Palmolive rpi in National and GT. Whereas in MT it is interacting with Category and Vaseline rpi
Clear interacting highly with category rpi a in Nat and GT . Moderate interactions with H&S in all three formats
Vaseline Interacting highly with Category, Sunsilk, Rejoice and Palmolive rpi
Vaseline

29. Mat’12 vol. , val and price overview
Latest MAT-12 vs. YA
Data Summary
Value % Change
Volume % Change
Price % Change
Shampoo Category as a whole has gained volumes with a price decline
Sunsilk losing val. And vol. despite price cuts
Clear and Rejoice gaining volumes with price cuts
Pantene and Vaseline have significantly lost value and volume due to a price increase
Palmolive have gained volumes with a price cut but has lost val.

30. Distribution analysis

31. Brand Distribution trends
Overall
Palmolive is the best distributed within all stores
Distribution of all brands on the rise over the last year except Vaseline
Vaseline’s ND and WD declining rapidly
Rejoice presence amongst good stores rising significantly over months
MT and GT
ND more or less stable for most brands in MT.
WD high for all brands in MT
WD for Palmolive has recovered from a declining trend over the last year in MT
In GT all brands have improved distribution over the last year except Vaseline
Overall decline in Vaseline distribution caused due to decline in GT
Rejoice is growing in both ND and WD rapidly in GT
Data Summary

32. Volume vs. wd and nD Data Summary
Correl  ND WD
-0.2
-0.1
Correl  ND WD
0.61
0.34
Sunsilk appears insensitive to distribution at the overall level . GT distribution insensitive to volume whereas MT distribution mildly sensitive
Clear Appears sensitive to distribution esp. Numeric driven by its sensitivity in GT. In MT distribution does not appear to be very sensitive for Clear
Vaseline appears highly distribution sensitive driven by its sensitivity to distribution in GT. In MT distribution appears mildly sensitive for Vaseline
Correl  ND WD
0.94
0.86

33. MEDIA analysis

34. Media overview Data Summary
In Million Pesos
Data Summary
Category as a whole has increased TV and Print Spends but reduced Radio Spends
Sunsilk and Clear have reduced TvSpends and are not focusing much on other media
Dove focusing on TV as its media driver
Vaseline has reduced TV spends and increase Radio spends marginally
Palmolive has almost doubled Tvspends. Also focusing on other Media
H&S reducing overall media spends whereas Rejoice increasing both Tv and Radio Spends
Pantene Shifting focus to TV from other media

35. Palmolive has highest sov TV for mat’12
IN 2012, Palmolive has the highest GRP SOV owing a doubling in Media Spends
Dove gaining 7.6% SOV in its first year of Media activity
Sunsilk, Clear, H&S and Vaseline have reduced TV Spends as a result have lost GRP SOV
Pantene and Rejoice have lower GRPS in MAT 2012 despite increasing TV Spends

36. Grp Trends – unilever brands

37. Grp Trends – competitor brands

38. Hypothesis generation & summary

39. Hypothesis generation
Competitive set based on MS correlation:
Sunsilk volume decline driven by GT. Major takers appear to be Palmolive in MT and Rejoice, Palmolive in GT
Clear appears to be interacting with Rejoice and not with Head & Shoulders. Possibly because of trend correlations, may not be true in reality
Vaseline declining heavily, appears to be interacting with almost all brands
Price:
Sunsilk does appear to be lowly elastic to price in National and MT. GT appears to be moderately price elastic for sunsilk. Sunsilk expected to react on price with brands within its price range i.e. Palmolive and Rejoice
Clear appears to highly elastic, possibly due to its steady decline in volumes till 2011 with price increases over months during that period . It appears to be moderately sensitive to price changes in H&S, and highly sensitive in pure category prices
Vaseline seems to be highly sensitive to price. Possibility of people shifting from lower priced Vaseline to a slightly higher priced Sunsilk, Rejoice and Palmolive
Distribution:
Sunsilk does not appear to be distribution sensitive.
Clear is moderately sensitive to distribution, whereas Vaseline appears to be
highly sensitive
Media:
Rejoice and Palmolive media activity impact to be tested for Sunsilk as competition
Head & shoulders media activity and beauty shampoo media to be tested as competition
for Clear
For Vaseline model Rejoice, Palmolive and Sunsilk media activity need to be validated
Hypothesis
generation

40. Sunsilk Conditioner Halo Purecat and Other Brands
Variables to be tested
PRICE
DISTRIBUTION
MEDIA
Palmolive
Rejoice -
Sunsilk Conditioner Halo
Purecat
Head&Shoulders ND WD
H&S
Beauty Shampoo
Purecat and Other Brands
WD/ ND
Clear Shampoo
H&S and Rejoice

41. Thank you