1. Regional Cooperation Diversifying Eleсtricity Transportation Routes
USAID Central Asia - Energy Links Project
Regional Cooperation Diversifying Eleсtricity Transportation Routes
Matthew Addison, Deloitte Consulting
ASHGABAT INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CHARTER FORUM
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan
May 31, 2017

2. "Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here
"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here? That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.”
"If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there."

3. Recent Trends In CAR

4. Which one is best

5. Recent Trends In CAR (as per CDC Energia)
2005
IMPORT (GWH) KZ KG TJ UZ TM AF
Total
EXPORT
(GWH)  -  0 0 
2668.1
230.1
2898.2
68.5
3.5 - 
683.5
755.5 -
814.9
2736.6
1045
4468.6
2015
421 13 9 22
146
1184
1330
471 15
1285
1300
582
2940
3544

6. What Can Other Regions Teach Us?
Energy Independence VS Energy Security
The natural connection of hydro and thermal regions
Bilateral vs Regional
Different Business Models

7. The Mistaken Notion of Energy Independence

8. We must diversify our routes, our technologies and our markets
Energy Independence or Energy Security?
“On no one quality, on no one process, on no one country, on no one route, and on no one field must we be dependent. Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone.”
Winston Churchill
We must diversify our routes, our technologies and our markets

9. The Example of South Asia

10. India – Bhutan - Nepal Interconnections

11. Lessons From South Asia’s Experience
Financial insolvency can turn a surplus to a deficit and be a major road block
State Owned Utilities operating under the discipline of the market can be engines of growth
There is wisdom in linking hydro and thermal regions
Economic Growth and Political Stability lie in Energy Security not Independence
Energy Security lies in variety – more than one route!
Diversification can be a win-win

12. Lessons From International Experience
Economic Growth and Political Stability lie in Energy Security not Independence
Financial insolvency can be a major road block
There is wisdom in linking hydro and thermal regions
Regional Infrastructure is built on the results bilateral plans and country specific investments
Regional Coordination in planning, operations and training begin to build those enabling frameworks that reduce the detours – reduce time and cost
Even a modest amount of trading can yield significant financial benefits for all
Creative structuring combined with a history of trust (built above) can lead to truly regional investments
Energy Security lies in variety – more than one route!

13. Levelized Cost of Electricity
Euro per kWh
Fuel
Min
Max
Coal 4
11.6
Gas CCGT
5.3
16.8
Gas ST
9.5
22.7
Nuclear
3.6
8.4
Hydro RoR
2.2
10.8

14. Which one is best

15. Benefits of Trade
Over 4 years using actual consumption, generation capacity and cost data.
$5.2 billion
Every country a winner
But not possible if everyone seeks energy independence

16. Questions?? Thank You! Matthew Addison Sr. Power Market Advisor
Phone: