1. Forecast Verification
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India

2. Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala
Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013
Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013
Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date.
Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel

3. NCEP/TRMM
Analysis
Wind (850hPa)
and R/F
Verification
F/C from
16May IC
F/C from
16May IC
CFSv2
GFSbc

4. NCEP/TRMM
Analysis
Wind (850hPa)
and R/F
Verification
F/C from
26May IC
F/C from
26May IC
CFSv2
GFSbc

5. Spatial pentad mean pattern

6. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)
For period 1-5 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P4-lead, IC 16May
CFS
GFSbc

7. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period 1-5 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P4-lead, IC 16May
CFS
GFSbc

8. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)
For period 6-10 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
6-10 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 5Jun
P2-lead, IC 31May
P3-lead, IC 26May
P4-lead, IC 21May
CFS
GFSbc

9. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period 6-10 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
6-10 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 5June
P2-lead, IC 31May
P3-lead, IC 26May
P4-lead, IC 21May
CFS
GFSbc

10. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)
For period June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
11-15 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 10June
P2-lead, IC 5June
P3-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 26May
CFS
GFSbc

11. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
11-15 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 10June
P2-lead, IC 5June
P3-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 26May
GFSbc
CFS

12. Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)
For period June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
16-20 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 15June
P2-lead, IC 10June
P3-lead, IC 5June
P4-lead, IC 31May
CFS
GFSbc

13. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
16-20 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 15June
P2-lead, IC 10June
P3-lead, IC 5June
P4-lead, IC 31May
CFS
GFSbc

14. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
21-25 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 20June
P2-lead, IC 15June
P3-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 5June P

15. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
21-25 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 20June
P2-lead, IC 15June
P3-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 5June P

16. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period 26-30June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
26-30 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 25June
P2-lead, IC 20June
P3-lead, IC 15June
P4-lead, IC 10June

17. Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)
For period 26-30June, 2013
Forecast valid For period
26-30 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 25June
P2-lead, IC 20June
P3-lead, IC 15June
P4-lead, IC 10June

18. CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions
MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

19. CFS, CEI

20. GFSbc, CEI

21. CFS, MZI

22. GFSbc, MZI

23. CFS, NEI

24. GFSbc, NEI

25. CFS, NWI

26. GFSbc, NWI

27. CFS, SPI

28. GFSbc, SPI

29. MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS
16 May IC
21 May IC

30. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
26 May IC
31 May IC

31. MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
10 Jun IC
5 Jun IC
(OBS is for 20 days only)