1. Global Economic Watch Federal Budgets and Public Policy
November 18, 2009

2. Health Plan
February 24, 2009
I suffer no illusions that this will be an easy process. It will be hard.
So let there be no doubt: health care reform cannot wait, it must not wait, and it will not wait another year.

3. Senate Plan
November 18, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today announced the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of the Senate health care bill

4. Estimate
…a net reduction in federal deficits of $130 billion over the period (see Table 1)

5. Table 1
…a net reduction in federal deficits of $130 billion over the period (see Table 1)

6. Response This is yet another trillion-dollar experiment…

7. Uncertainty
CBO and JCT estimate that the direct spending and revenue effects of enacting the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act would yield a net reduction in federal deficits of $130 billion over the period.
That estimate is subject to substantial uncertainty.

8. Discussion
What is the CBO’s budget impact assessment of the Senate bill?
Why long term budget forecasts are difficult to make?
What assumptions are made when making long term forecasts?