1. Public Opinion and Political Behaviors
Unit IIC
Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

2. Political Efficacy Voting in elections
Learning and understanding political knowledge
Having political discussions
Attending political meetings
Forming interest groups
Contacting public officials
Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot issue
Financial contributions
Running for office
Protesting public policies and/or officials

3. Voting - The Democratic Process
Voting exemplifies a “government by the people”
The American electorate determine policy and policymakers
Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states
Vote in local, state, and national elections

4. Voter Requirements An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote
States determine registration requirements and qualifications
Voter ID laws
State residency requirement of usually 30 days
Prisoners
Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993)
Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license
Register by mail

5. Expansion of Suffrage
Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800
15th Amendment (1870)
Guaranteed blacks the right to vote
19th Amendment (1920)
Guaranteed women the right to vote
23rd Amendment (1961)
Guaranteed right to vote for D.C.
24th Amendment (1964)
Prohibited poll taxes
Harper v. Virginia Board of Elections (1966)*
Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965
Eliminated voting restrictions for blacks
Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests
26th Amendment (1971)
Guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older

6. Who Votes? High Level of Education Higher Incomes White-Collar Workers
Older Generations
Whites
Women
Religious
Union Members
Strong Community Members
Strong Political Party Members
Competitive Election Districts

7. Why Won’t People Vote? Negative campaigns
Numerous and frequent elections
Ballot fatigue
Lack of party identification
Similarity between candidates
Mistrust in government
Apathy or Status Quo
Lack of political efficacy
Voter registration difficulties
Feeling of not belonging to a community

8. Voter Turnout

10. How People Vote Vote based on the individual
Vote based on political party
Vote based on the issues
Vote based on campaigns
Vote based on coalitions

11. Voting Based on the Individual
Rational choice
Voters choose a candidate or party based on how they and their families will benefit
Consider past performance, contemporary issues, and current situations, party leadership and key players
Not necessarily subject to factors such as age, race, gender, party identification, etc.
Believe parties are not very ideologically different

12. Voting Based on Political Party
Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter
Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated
Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout
Split-ticket voting

13. Voting Based on the Issues
Prospective Voting
Vote based on information of issues and candidates
Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000
Retrospective Voting
Vote based on past events whether successful or failed
Ex. The economy suffered during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

14. Voting Based on the Campaign
Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters
Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility
Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

15. Voting Based on a Coalition
Democrats
Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews
Support for minority-based policies (affirmative action, civil rights)
However, limited popular contribution
Moderate support among most hispanics
Support for pro-immigration policies
Low voter turnout
Catholics and unions divided
Based on conservative stance on social issues (abortion)
Republicans
Strong loyalties among businesses and conservatives
Support for tax cuts and limited economic regulation
Social conservatives (evangelicals)
Moderate support among farmers and professionals
Farmers and professionals can switch based on economy

16. Types of Elections Primary Elections
Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election
Closed Primary
Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate
Open Primary
Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth
Blanket Primary
Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different positions
Runoff Primary
Election between top two candidates who received the most votes but neither received the majority of votes
California Democratic Party v. Jones (2000)

17. 2008 Democratic Primary Election
California ballot

18. Types of Elections General Elections
Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents
Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

19. Types of Elections Special Elections
Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election
Initiative
Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures
Referendum
Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people
Recall
Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official
Special elections are only held at the state or local levels
U.S. Senator and U.S. House vacancies

20. Congressional Elections
Held every two years on even-numbered years
Every two years to elect Representatives
Senatorial elections may be held (1/3rd of Senators)
Mid-Term Elections
“Off-Year” Elections held between presidential elections
Lower voter turnout

21. Congressional Elections
Incumbency Effect
Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning
Reelection Rates of U.S. House and U.S. Senate ( )
Franking privilege
Free mailings to constituents
Coattail Effect
Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

22. Congressional Apportionment and Districts
Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911)
Each state with at least one representative
Currently, one representative per 709,760
Reapportionment every 10 years based on national census
Redistricting
States draw congressional districts
Districts must be relatively equal

23. Congressional Apportionment and Districts
Consequences
Gerrymandering
Drawing districts to favor a political party or group
Independent commissions
Baker v. Carr (1962)
Wesberry v. Sanders (1964)
Reynolds v. Sims (1964)
Shaw v. Reno (1993)

24. Florida’s 2000-2010 U.S. House Districts

25. Florida 2010-2020 U.S. House Districts

26. Florida’s Redistricting and Gerrymandering 2015
Florida State Representative Janet Adkins (R) on U.S. Representative Corrine Brown (D-FL 5)

28. Congressional Elections Primary Elections
Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot
Primary election determines party nominee

29. Presidential Elections
Held every four years
Phases of Presidential Candidacy:
Exploration
Announcement
Primaries and Caucuses
Nominating Conventions
General Election Campaign
Electoral College

30. Presidential Election Exploration
Does a candidate have enough political and financial support?
Sets up an exploratory committee to find out
Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

31. Presidential Election Announcement
Candidate decides to run for office
Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president
Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

32. Presidential Election Campaign Strategies
Staff
Political consultant
Finance chairperson
Communications Director
Press Secretary
Visibility and Appeal and Endorsements
Pollster and Tracking Polls
Focus Groups
Get Out the Vote (GOTV)

33. Presidential Election Primaries and Caucuses
Voters from primary states vote for the party nominee
State delegates throw support toward primary vote winner
Most commonly used method
Front-loading
Howard Dean Scream (2004)
Caucuses
Historically, state and party leaders met and chose nominee
Very few states use caucuses
Iowa’s caucus is the first major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

34. Presidential Election Nominating Conventions
Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates
Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party
Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

35. Republican National Convention
Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates
Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries
In 2012, the Republican nominee required 1,144 out of 2,286

36. Democratic National Convention
Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates
State primary results determine candidate pledges
“Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee
In 2012, the Democratic nominee required 2,777 out of 5,556

37. Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning
Position Issues
Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing views
Examples:
Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life
Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual
Valence Issues
Universally shared views and voters determine which candidate is more likely to address/solve
Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence issues
Low unemployment
Low crime

38. Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning
Television
Paid advertisement - spots
News broadcasts - visuals
Debates
Televised or town hall
Gain exposure, usually for lesser-knowns
Could lead to showcase flaws
Rick Perry Gaffe
Direct Mail/Internet
Lists used to direct specific issue-based ads to specific demographics
Useful to earn campaign funds
Nixon - Kennedy Debate
1960

39. 1988 Presidential Campaign
Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D)
Read My Lips
Tank Ad
Willie Horton Ad

40. Campaign Finance Congressional and Presidential
“Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D)
Open Secrets
Sources of Campaign Money
Campaign Finance Rules
Campaign Finance Reform
Effect of Campaign Finance

41. Sources of Campaign Money
Hard money
Financial contribution directly given to candidate
Must disclose donor information
Matching funds
Federal funds matching presidential candidate contributions
Candidates may deny the option and spend unlimited amounts
No matching funds for congressional candidates
Soft money
Financial contribution given to political party for party-building activities
Unlimited amounts
Independent expenditures
Money spent on behalf of a candidate by an interest group not directly affiliated with a candidate’s campaign
Dark money
Unlimited donations to social welfare and trade association groups from interest groups
Do not need to disclose donors to public
Individual contributions
Official donations to candidate campaigns from private citizens
Largest source of regulated campaign funds
Political Action Committees (PACS)
Official groups designed to raise campaign contributions directly for a candidate
Must disclose donor information
Super PACs
Independent-expenditure only groups

42. Campaign Finance Reform
Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments
Required disclosure of donors
Limits on individual contributions
Established Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
Constitutional:
Disclosure of contributions
Express advocacy words:
Elect, vote for, defeat, support, vote against, reject, Smith for Congress, cast your ballot for
Unconstitutional:
Limits on campaign expenditures

43. Campaign Finance Reform
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-Feingold Act
Banned soft money to national parties
Restricted PAC campaign ads and issue advocacy ads
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)
Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing unlimited financial support for campaign support ads
Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech
“Money is Speech”

44. Campaign Finance Limits
To each candidate or candidate committee per election
To national party committee per calendar year
To state, district & local party committee per calendar year
To any other political committee per calendar year
Special Limits
Individual may give
$2,600*
$32,400*
$10,000 (combined limit)
$5,000
$123,200* overall biennial limit:
$48,600* to all candidates
$74,600* to all PACs and parties
National Party Committee may give
No limit
$45,400* to Senate candidate per campaign
State, District & Local Party Committee may give
$5,000 (combined limit)
PAC (multicandidate) may give
$15,000
PAC (not multicandidate) may give
Authorized Campaign Committee may give
$2,000

46. Campaign Spots 2012 Mitt Romney Campaign Spot
Official television spot in direct coordination with the Romney presidential campaign
2012 Pro-Mitt Romney SuperPAC Spot
Restore Our Future (SuperPAC) established by Romney supporters
2010 Americans for Prosperity Issue Advocacy Spot
Americans for Prosperity (SuperPAC) established by the Koch Brothers as a political advocacy group

47. Presidential Election General Election
Electoral College
Majority of electoral votes - 270
Winner-Take-All
Nebraska and Maine*
Campaign in Electoral-rich states
Top 11 states would give a candidate 270 electoral votes
California (55), Texas (38), New York (29), Florida (29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14)
Swing States
Florida in 2000 Election
Ohio in 2004 Election
2016: Florida (29), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Nevada (6)

48. As Ohio Goes, So Goes the Nation

49. Presidential Candidates and State Campaigns
Number of Hand Waves depicts number of presidential and vice-presidential candidate visits in last five weeks of election of 2004
Number of Dollar Signs depicts number of presidential campaign spending in last five weeks of election of 2004

50. 2000 Election - Gore/Bush

51. 2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

52. 2008 Election - Obama/McCain

53. Electoral Map (2012)

54. 2012 Electoral Map by District

55. Results of Elections Realigning Election Dealigning Election
Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and maintains subsequent power
Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events
Dealigning Election
Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties
Split-ticket voting

56. Realigning/Critical Election
Democratic-Republicans sweep the White House and Congress from the Federalists
1824/1828 Elections
Leads to split of Democratic-Republicans into Democrats and Whigs
1860 Election
Republican Party replaces the Whigs against the Democrats
1896 Election
Tactics change toward campaign finance and swing-state campaign stops
1932 Election
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites
Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress
1968 Election
Republican use of the Southern Strategy
1994 Mid-Term Elections
Republican Revolution

57. Election of 1928

58. Realignment Election of 1932