1. Decision analysis concept note plans

2. Rationale
Agroforestry interventions promise to deliver many benefits, but anticipating their impact is difficult
This makes it hard for decision-makers to evaluate options
Data is insufficient for precise assessments, but we may be able to evaluate many options based on our current state of uncertainty
We propose to use decision analysis methods for evaluating various agroforestry options
Holistic assessment across multiple ecosystem services, considering multiple risks

3. Intervention options Improved management of walnut forests
Shelterbelts
Agroforestry legislation
Government unit on agroforestry
Incentivize protection of genetic diversity of fruit trees
Prevent land degradation through sustainable watershed management

4. Whose problem is it?
Land users, small land use agents (e.g. farmers, pastoralists etc.)
Vulnerable groups
NGOs
Government agencies
Global community (biodiversity, climate change)
Government-private dialogue (in Tajikistan)
National research communities (capacity strengthening)

5. Which countries? Could happen everywhere Tajikistan interested
Ferghana Valley opportunity to work with 4-5 countries, multiple agroecosystems
Multiple countries!

6. Current initiatives GIZ (walnuts in Kyrgyzstan)
GEF – afforestation (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)
World Bank
FAO
UNDP: pistachio (?)
Aga Khan Foundation
Maybe in forestry ministries
Juniper and pistachio planting programs in Tajikistan

7. Next users Governments NARS NGOs Extension services
Scientific community

8. Research, development and implementation partners
Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Kyrgyzstan:
Uzbekistan:
Kazakhstan:
Turkmenistan:
Agricultural Faculties
University of Central Asia
Central Asia Research Centre in Urumqi (Prof. Zhen Xi)
ICRAF, iamo, ZEF

9. How do we deliver impact?
Involve targeted next users directly in research
Policy briefs
Documentaries
Social media
Research papers

10. What donors? BEAF (BMZ/GIZ) Nordic climate facility (30th Jan)
Livelihoods fund (15th Feb)
Gates? …
Flexible proposal, so could be adapted to needs of many donors