1. Second GTE+ Workshop on the European Ten Year Network Development Plan 2009
Brussels, 29th April 2009
Presentation by Martin Altstätter
Chairman Forecasting Task Force

2. Table of Content:
Eurogas experience in forecasting & preliminary remarks
Eurogas demand forecasts
Considerations for future Eurogas outlook
Preliminary comments on GTE+ results
Conclusions

3. 1) Eurogas experience in forecasting: Eurogas forecasting Task Force
Work on long-term demand and supply in EU27 until 2030
Last forecast published in 2007 (see Eurogas Annual Report)
Preliminary remarks:
Eurogas congratulates GTE+ for Preliminary Report
Eurogas thanks GTE+ for possibility to comment
Eurogas recalls its position that the 10 year plan should reflect a
European dimension
Evidence of improved co-operation and co-ordination between TSOs

4. 2) Eurogas Demand forecasts
Dynamic growth of 1990 will slow down
Main driver in future gas demand is power generation
625
603
578
535
493
438

5. Comparison Commission – Eurogas – IEA Primary Energy Consumption of Natural Gas
=> Compared to recent forecasts, Eurogas represents the “upper part”
IEA; 517
445

6. 3) Considerations for future Eurogas outlook
To reflect current developments, we decided to revise our long term outlook for demand and supply in the EU
Expected results in 2010
The following aspects are to be discussed in this context:
Impact of the economic crisis in short and medium term
Growth of gas demand in the residential and commercial sector is limited by saturation trends in some national markets, more intensive energy savings and fiercer competition by renewables
Are the developments in the power generation sufficiently dynamic for natural gas ? Price competitiveness, evolution of ETS, expansion of renewables and political choices on nuclear are to be monitored
Uncertainties of demand predictions are significant

7. 4) Preliminary comments:
10 year plan should be seen as basis for further requirements on cross-border capacity
Eurogas encourages further participation of TSOs
Work on a more coherent and consistent methodology for future exercise
Further information on assumptions and definitions is needed
Favor an EU approach going beyond the sum of individual TSOs projections (European dimension)
Need to ensure comparativeness with existent scenarios (ie: present EU27 totals)

8. 5) Conclusions
Taking into consideration current uncertainties in future demand evolution, the Eurogas experts will look closer at the GTE+ preliminary figures and send comments as soon as possible

9. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !