1. Jennifer Ward-Batts March 21, 2017
Using Compulsory Schooling in Turkey to Examine the Causal Effects of Education on Attitudes
Jennifer Ward-Batts
March 21, 2017

2. Literature: “Effects” of Education on Attitudes
Too much to list here!

3. Research Question: What Are the Causal Effects of Education?
Correlation between education and attitudes in cross-section data may be spurious
I use a large increase in compulsory schooling in Turkey to isolate the causal effect of education
Using instrumental variables method

4. 1997 Education Reform in Turkey
Prior to change, 5 years compulsory
After change, 8 years compulsory
Should enter school in the year in which they reach age 6 (i.e., 72 months), => 1986 birth cohort is first treated cohort
But entry age is in practice flexible. Using other data, I show that we should take 1987 birth cohort as the 1st treated cohort (next slide)
I have found with other data, as have others, that there was a large increase in educational attainment among the “treated” cohorts

5. 1997 Education Reform in Turkey(2)
Who is “treated”?
If enrolled in 1st year in fall 1993, will complete 4th year May 1997 => first cohort to affected
Using enrollment rates in 1993 & assuming pattern was the same in , I can deduce the following:
80% of 1986 birth cohort (age 7 in 1993) affected by reform
2/3 of 1985 birth cohort (age 8 in 1993) unaffected
So could take 1986 as first treated cohort.
Alternate: take 1987 as first fully treated cohort and omit 1986 cohort from the analysis
Fall 1993
Fall 1998
Birth cohort
Girls
Boys
age 6
1987 21 19
1992 28 29
age 7
1986 60 64
1991 69 70
age 8
1985 90 92
1990 82 91

6. Data World Values Survey for Turkey 2007 & 2011
2001 data does not include anyone from the treated cohorts, but can use it later to look at trends in older cohorts

7. Estimation Method & Notes (1)
Many questions in the survey have 4 possible responses:
Very important or Strongly Agree
Rather important Agree
Not very important Disagree
Not at all important Strongly Disagree
Some questions are on 10 point scales
Whether religious person is binary
I use linear (probability) model for present estimates

8. Estimation Method & Notes (2)
I first estimate a linear OLS model
I then estimate IV (instrumental variables)
a two stage model that first estimates education using the policy treatment and all other independent variables
2nd stage is linear model using the estimated value of education
In further work, I would like to estimate an IV version of ordered probit, which would better fit the outcome, but may have too few observations.

9. 1st stage regression of middleschool completion on “treatment” & controls
treated4
0.0722**
(0.0320)
female
***
(0.0317)
D2011
0.101***
Observations
629
R-squared
0.092
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Model also includes constant and region dummies.

10. Religion-related (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV Importance: religion
(1)
(2)IV
(3)
(4)IV
(5)
(6)IV
Importance: religion
Religious person
God important in life
Middle
school
0.305***
-0.568
-0.189***
-0.830*
-0.656***
0.650
(0.0706)
(0.891)
(0.0380)
(0.491)
(0.152)
(1.891)
female
-0.141
0.0199
0.140
0.298
(0.0568)
(0.110)
(0.0306)
(0.0629)
(0.123)
(0.228)
D2011
0.0119
0.0867
0.0776**
0.163**
-0.213
(0.0571)
(0.114)
(0.0308)
(0.0667)
(0.238)
Constant
1.289***
1.809***
0.945***
1.203***
9.923***
8.916***
(0.171)
(0.574)
(0.0798)
(0.318)
(0.367)
(1.210)
# obs
703
628
693
618
694
620

11. Gender related (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV (9) (10)IV
(1)
(2)IV
(3)
(4)IV
(5)
(6)IV
(7)
(8)IV
(9)
(10)IV
housewife
men_pol
univ_boy
men_exec
jobscarce_men
Middle
school
0.196**
1.658
0.292***
0.0855
0.0248
0.274
0.181**
0.677
0.326***
0.741
(0.0771)
(1.178)
(0.0861)
(0.996)
(0.0895)
(1.050)
(0.0847)
(1.017)
(0.0799)
(0.938)
female
0.190***
0.337**
0.411***
0.393***
0.221***
0.272**
0.373***
0.455***
0.352***
0.408***
(0.0624)
(0.140)
(0.0689)
(0.120)
(0.0718)
(0.129)
(0.0680)
(0.121)
(0.0644)
(0.115)
D2011
0.0101
-0.181
-0.23***
-0.193
-0.38***
-0.43***
-0.22***
-0.265*
-0.188***
-0.25**
(0.0628)
(0.147)
(0.0694)
(0.137)
(0.0722)
(0.134)
(0.0683)
(0.136)
(0.0649)
(0.123)
Constant
1.833***
0.795
1.623***
2.201***
3.306***
3.087***
1.977***
2.169***
1.147***
1.151*
(0.191)
(0.752)
(0.206)
(0.633)
(0.216)
(0.671)
(0.179)
(0.643)
(0.168)
(0.607)
# obs
688
613
689
616
697
623
686
695
621

12. How’s Life? (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV VARIABLES
(1)
(2)IV
(3)
(4)IV
(5)
(6)IV
(7)
(8)IV
VARIABLES
lifesatisfaction
happiness
health
freedom
Middle
school
-0.163
-2.975
0.163**
1.316
0.0043
0.507
-0.116
0.411
(0.194)
(2.597)
(0.0732)
(1.005)
(0.0710)
(0.962)
(0.195)
(2.324)
female
0.0132
-0.297
0.0313
0.166
0.190***
0.242**
(0.156)
(0.320)
(0.0589)
(0.122)
(0.0569)
(0.112)
(0.283)
D2011
-0.155
0.0820
0.0266
0.115
0.177
(0.157)
(0.334)
(0.0592)
(0.127)
(0.0571)
(0.118)
(0.295)
Constant
7.727***
8.469***
1.562***
1.192*
1.812***
2.171***
7.392***
6.338***
(0.470)
(1.683)
(0.652)
(0.171)
(0.630)
(0.424)
(1.489)
# obs
703
629
702
627
697
622
698
624

13. What’s Important? (1) (2)IV (3) (4)IV (5) (6)IV (7) (8)IV work pol
(1)
(2)IV
(3)
(4)IV
(5)
(6)IV
(7)
(8)IV
work
pol
family
friends
Middle
school
-0.193**
0.248
-0.189**
0.896
0.536
-0.498
(0.0781)
(0.918)
(0.0888)
(1.143)
(0.0211)
(0.341)
(0.0535)
(0.638)
female
0.309***
0.367***
0.183**
0.256* **
0.0121
(0.0629)
(0.113)
(0.0715)
(0.141)
(0.0170)
(0.0421)
(0.0430)
(0.0784)
D2011
0.143**
0.112
-0.395***
-0.471***
0.0294*
0.0607
0.104
(0.0631)
(0.118)
(0.0718)
(0.147)
(0.0171)
(0.0438)
(0.0432)
(0.0842)
Constant
1.680***
1.174**
2.929***
1.806**
1.008***
0.700***
1.303***
1.599***
(0.189)
(0.592)
(0.187)
(0.737)
(0.0446)
(0.221)
(0.130)
(0.412)
# obs
703
628
702
704
629