1. Trends in Energy and Transport
Amela Ajanovic
Energy Economics Group
Vienna University of Technology
5th MacroTrend Conference on Energy and Sustainability: Paris 2017

2. Alternative automotive technologies Conclusions
Content
Introduction
Policies and targets
Alternative fuels
Biofuels
Alternative automotive technologies
Electric vehicles
Conclusions

3. Countries with largest conventional oil reserves
Introduction
93%
oil products' share of final energy consumption for transport, making the sector the least-diversified
28%
the amount that transport energy and CO2 emissions have increased since 2000
Countries with largest conventional oil reserves

4. GHG by sector, EU-28

5. GHG

6. EU policies and targets
10%
BF: 5.75%
ICE -50% in city
No ICE in city
2009
2010
2015
2020
2030
2050
20% GHG
(2008)
60% GHG
(1990)
The White Paper on Transport Policy

7. Biofuel
Source: BP,2017

8. World land use

9. EU policies and targets
10%
Targets for 2030
a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels
at least a 27% share of renewable energy consumption
at least 27% energy savings compared with the BAU scenario.
No sub-target on renewable energy in transport (e.g. biofuels)!
BF: 5.75%
2010
2015
2020
2030

10. Electric vehicles
Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change & Call to Action:
more than 100 million EVs
400 million two and three-wheelers

11. Level of electrification of electric vehicles
ICE vehicles
HEV PHEV REX
BEV FCV
Zero-emission EVs
Level of electrification of electric vehicles

12. Economic aspects
Total costs of service mobility of various types of EV in comparison to ICE cars

13. Scenario for development of investment costs
a…………specific costs of the first unit
b…………learning rate
x ………..cumulative (unit) production
Technological learning:
(Power: 80 kW)
FCV
BEV

14. Environmental assessment
Well-to-Wheel (WTW)
Primary
energy
source
Fuel
Mobility
TTW_fuel
Car
TTW_car
Well-to-Tank (WTT)
Tank-to-Wheel (TTW)

15. Environmental assessment
CO2 emissions per km driven for various types of EV in comparison to conventional cars (power of car: 80kW)

16. Electricity mix (2014)
Data source: tsp,2014

17. Environmental assessment
CO2 emissions per km driven for BEVs powered by grid electricity in different countries

18. Conclusions
Biofuels …second generation
EVs …cost reductions, improvement of battery characteristics as well as development of infrastructure
New policy design….most of the policies implemented will be abolished with the increasing number of EVs
Full environmental benefit – only if EVs are powered by electricity generated from renewable energy sources