1. Chapter 2 – Accounting Under Ideal Conditions
Nic Festarini, Alex Leon, Ben McRae, Matt Spark

2. 2.1 Overview

3. Overview Present Value Model Reserve Recognition Accounting
- Under certainty and uncertainty
Reserve Recognition Accounting
Historical Cost Accounting
The Non-Existence of True Net Income
A Matter of Principles by Al Rosen
CICA Handbook: Section 1100
Overview

4. 2.2 The Present Value Model Under Certainty

5. The Present Value Model
Widely used in Economics, Finance and Accounting
Provides relevant information to financial statement users
Determines firms future prospects and aids in investment decisions
The Present Value Model

6. Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty
Consider P.V. Ltd. is a one asset company with no liabilities. Assume the asset will generate end of year cash flows of $150 in both year 1 & 2, and then have a zero value after that. Assume the economic interest rate is 10%. Determine the present value of the firms cash flows and balance sheets at year 0 and year 1.
Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty

7. Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty
Cash flow = $150 each yr for 2 yrs
Interest rate = 10%
Present Value at year 0 = PA0
PA0 = $ $
PA0 =
PA0 = $260.33
Balance Sheet As at Time 0
Capital Asset, at expected PV
$260.33
Shareholder’s Equity
Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty

8. Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty
Net revenues are capitalized into asset value
Similar to a savings account
Net Income
PA0 = * 0.1
PA0 = $26.03
Accretion of discount
Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty

9. Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty
Present value at the end of year 1
PA1 = $
PA1 =
Balance Sheet at the End of Year 1
Assets
Shareholder’s Equity
Cash
$150
Opening Value
$260.33
Capital Asset, at PV
$136.36
Net Income $
$286.36
Example of the Present Value Model Under Certainty

10. Important Points Dividends Net book value = Present value
Relevant and Reliable
Arbitrage Profits
Net income plays no role in firm valuation
Important Points

11. 2.3 The Present Value Model Under Uncertainty
Illustrative example with concepts carrying over from 2.1

12. States of Nature (States)
States of Nature: Uncertain future events such as the state of the economy.
States of nature are a conceptual device to model uncertain/uncontrollable future events whose realizations affect cash flows of a firm
Example
State 1: Economy is bad (probability 0.5)
State 2: Economy is good (probability 0.5)
Note: No one can control which of the states is realized; hence they are called states of nature
States of Nature (States)

13. …States of Nature Continued
At time 0, no one knows which state will occur and we assume that the set of possible states is publicly known and complete.
Assume that the state probabilities are objective and publicly known
Ex: If we imagine a long-run sequence of repetitions of our two-state economy, the bad state will occur with relative frequency of 0.5.
Note: The implication of an objective probability here is that any particular outcome tells us nothing about what the state probabilities are.
…States of Nature Continued

14. Ideal conditions under uncertainty are characterized by:
1. A given, fixed interest rate at which the firm’s future cash flows are discounted
2. A completely and publicly known set states of nature
3. State probabilities objective and publicly known
4. State realization publicly observable
Ideal Conditions

15. Taking into account that the economy can be in a “bad” state or a “good” state during each year. If it is in a bad state, cash flows will be $100 for the year. If it is in the good state, however, cash flows will be $200 for the year. Assume that during each year the bad state and the good state each occur with probability 0.5.
Example

16. Balance Sheet As at Time 0
Calculation of expected present value at time 0:
PV0 = 0.5 ( $ $ ) ( $ $ )
PV0 = (0.5 * $272.73) + (0.5 * $247.93)
PV0 = $ $123.97
PV0 = $260.33
Balance Sheet As at Time 0
Capital Asset, at expected PV
$260.33
Shareholder’s Equity
…Example Continued

17. …Example Continued Investors may be averse to risk
Expected value of the firm at the end of year 1 will be $ or $ depending on whether the bad state or the good state happens in that year
See calculations on subsequent slides
…Example Continued

18. Income Statement for Year 1 (Bad State)
Accretion of discount is based on expected net income for year 1
Calculated as: 0.10 * $ = $26.03
Under uncertainty, net income consists of expected net income plus or minus abnormal (unexpected) earnings for the year
Income Statement for Year 1 (Bad State)
Accretion of Discount
$26.03
Less: Abnormal earnings:
Expected Cash Flow (0.5 * $ * $200)
$150
Actual Cash Flow
$100
($50.00)
Net Loss
($23.97)
…Example Continued

19. Balance Sheet As at End of Year 1 (Bad State)
At the end of year 1, expected present value of the remaining cash flows:
PV1 = 0.5 ( $ $ ) = $136.36
Balance Sheet As at End of Year 1 (Bad State)
Financial Asset
Shareholder’s Equity
Cash
$100.00
Opening Value
$260.33
Capital Asset
End of Year Value
$136.36
Net Loss
($23.97)
$236.36
…Example Continued

20. Income Statement for Year 1 (Good State)
Accretion of discount is based on expected net income for year 1
Calculated as: 0.10 * $ = $26.03
Income Statement for Year 1 (Good State)
Accretion of Discount
$26.03
Add: Abnormal Earnings
Expected Cash Flow (0.5 * $ * $200)
$150
Actual Cash Flow
$200
$50.00
Net Income
$76.03
…Example Continued

21. Balance Sheet As at End of Year 1 (Good State)
This chapter ignores the complication of risk averse investors by assuming investors are risk neutral. That is, they are indifferent between the sure thing and the 50/50 gamble. As such, the firm’s market value will be $ at time 0.
Balance Sheet As at End of Year 1 (Good State)
Financial Asset
Shareholder’s Equity
Cash
$200.00
Opening Value
$260.33
Capital Asset
End of Year Value
$136.36
Net Income
$76.03
$336.36
…Example Continued

22. Financial statement reliability and volatility are different concepts
Financial statement reliability and volatility are different concepts. While PV calculations are reliable under ideal conditions, net income and balance sheet values are volatile since end-of-period PV depend on which state is realized. Volatility is demonstrated by abnormal earnings in our example, where net income varied from ($23.97) to $ under bad and good state realizations.
Points to Consider

23. …Points to Consider Continued
The income statement has no information content when abnormal earnings do not persist. Investors have sufficient information to calculate for themselves what realized net income will be, once they know the current year’s state realization.
Net income is predictable conditional on the state of nature
…Points to Consider Continued

24. Subjective Probabilities (formally introduced in chapter 3): Individuals must assess state of nature probabilities for themselves, using whatever information is available.
A more reasonable assumption than objective probabilities because the future performance of a business entity is much more complex and difficult to predict than a simple two state illustration.
Looking Ahead

25. 2.4 Reserve Recognition Accounting
An Example of RRA with Husky Energy Inc.

26. Reserve Recognition Accounting
Reserve Recognition Accounting (RRA) is a current value standard for oil and gas companies.
In 1982, the FASB issued SFAS 69 which required supplemental disclosure of certain information about the operations of publicly traded oil and gas companies
SFAS 69 requires disclosure of the estimated PV of future receipts from a company’s proven oil and gas reserves
Intended to provide investors with more relevant information
Reserve Recognition Accounting

27. When estimating future cash flows, SFAS 69 requires that the PV calculations use year- end oil and gas prices (as opposed to prices expected to be in effect when the reserves are lifted and sold). SFAS 69 does not require disclosure of states and nature and their probabilities, only the end results of the expectation calculation.
SFAS 69 requires a mandated 10% discount rate to be used, presumable for comparability across firms.
The figures apply only to “proved” reserves
…RRA Continued

28. RRA is more relevant that historical costs of reserves, however it is by no means completely relevant
RRA is not a complete representation since it applied only to “proved” reserves
Concept itself is a matter of judgement, since “proved” essentially means reasonably certain of recovery under current economy and operating conditions. This definition is thus subject to bias, and estimates are subject to error as shown by substantial adjustments to previous estimates.
…RRA Continued

29. Oil company managers tend to regard RRA with suspicion
Oil company managers tend to regard RRA with suspicion. As an example, Husky’s management states in its SFAS 69 disclosures that its RRA information is not a reliable performance measure and should not solely be relied upon in evaluation company performance.
Why use RRA?
May want to appeal to a broader spectrum of investors as many multinational oil companies report RRA information.
…RRA Continued

30. The basic problem is that Husky does not operate under ideal conditions.
1. Interest rates in the economy are not fixed, although FSAS 69 deals with this by requiring a fixed, given rate of 10% for discounting.
2. The set of states of nature affecting the amounts, prices, and timing of future production is much larger than the simple two-state example shown previously.
3. Objective state probabilities of proved reserve amounts are not available.
It is difficult to apply PV accounting when the ideal conditions it requires does not hold.
Basic Problems of RRA

31. ..Basic Problems of RRA Continued
The complex environment in which oil companies operate renders it effectively impossible to prepare estimates that are completely accurate and unaffected by subsequent events. Thus estimates become subject to errors and possible bias that threaten reliability to the point where the benefit of increased relevance is threatened.
..Basic Problems of RRA Continued

32. 2.5 Historical Cost Accounting

33. Comparison of Different Measurement Bases
Present-day accounting practice can be considered as a mixed measurement model
It can be argued that Historical Cost accounting is more useful than Current Value Accounting (Dichev and Tang 2008)
Past performance is the best indicator of future performance
Statement of Earning is primary F/S
Comparison of Different Measurement Bases

34. Comparison of Different Measurement Bases
Current Value accounting includes volatility and reliability concerns
Firms operate in an constantly changing environment
Samuelson (1965), who demonstrated that when markets work well, market prices fluctuate randomly
Balance Sheet is of greater importance
However, volatility impacts F/S as volatility reflects the firm’s environment
Comparison of Different Measurement Bases

35. Characteristics: Relevance vs. Reliability
It is necessary to trade them off
Different measurements bases imply different tradeoffs
Historical Cost
Relevance – Low
Reliability – High
Current Value
Relevance – High
Reliability – Low
Characteristics: Relevance vs. Reliability

36. Characteristics: Revenue Recognition
Current Value implies earlier Revenue Recognition than under Historical Cost
Current value accounting values assets & liabilities as changes constantly occur in current value
Recognition as changes in current value occur
Historical cost accounting values inventories at cost and A/R at selling price
Recognition as inventory is sold
Characteristics: Revenue Recognition

37. Characteristics: Recognition Lag
Recognition Lag refers to the timing of revenue recognition lags behind changes in economic value
Current Value – Low Recognition Lag
Changes in economic value occur as recognized
Historical Value – High Recognition Lag
Changes in economic value occur through realization
Characteristics: Recognition Lag

38. Characteristics: Matching of Costs & Revenues
Historical Cost
Matching is primarily used as net income is accomplished through the use of accruals
Accruals
Result of the matching of realized revenues with the associated costs
Accruals “smooth out” cash flows to allocate them over related periods
Characteristics: Matching of Costs & Revenues

39. Characteristics: Matching of Costs & Revenues
Matching is reasonably reliable – yet vagueness is present
Consider Amortization of Capital Assets:
IAS 16, amortization should be charged systematically over the asset’s useful life and reflect the pattern of benefit consumption
However, useful life and benefit consumption are largely subjective estimates
Characteristics: Matching of Costs & Revenues

40. Characteristics: Matching of Costs & Revenues
Current Value
Matching is not required, as net income is an explanation of changes in current value
Values of assets & liabilities is driven by:
Market Forces
The firm’s response to these forces
Characteristics: Matching of Costs & Revenues

41. 2.6 The Non-Existence of True Net Income

42. The Non-Existence of True Net Income
Current Value accounting F/S require that all the firm’s assets and liabilities be prepared based on the current value
Net income is the change in the firm’s current value during the period
However under real world conditions – Net income does not exist as a well- defined economic construct
Lack of objective state probabilities
The Non-Existence of True Net Income

43. The Non-Existence of True Net Income
Presence of Incomplete Markets – market values need not exist for all firm assets and liabilities
Ready market values is not available, results in an impossible income measure – Income is not well defined when markets are incomplete (Beaver & Demski 1979)
However, net income is not information impact when conditions are ideal
The Non-Existence of True Net Income

44. Frustrating – difficulty of agreeing on accounting policies
Different users will desire tradeoffs between relevance and reliability
Several different accounting policies
Fascinating – lack of well-defined concepts of net income
Judgment is critical in the process of asset valuation and income measurement
Provides the basis of the accounting profession
Concept of Net Income

45. Additional Reading: A Matter of Principles
Al Rosen

46. Financial Statements in Canada
Difficult to interpret
Do investors require education to understand a companies financial statements?
Several alternatives for reporting
Various methods can lead to misunderstandings amongst investors
Depreciation policies
Inventory costing
Financial Statements in Canada

47. Current Problems – Investor Perspective
Not familiar with Canadian GAAP
Inability to explain GAAP’s impact on the financial statements
EPS and EBITDA figures are being misinterpreted
Current Problems – Investor Perspective

48. Old text books can become misleading extremely quickly with the fast changing principles in accounting
Principles once deemed useful and current, can quickly become outdated in Canadian GAAP
Accounting Text Books

49. CICA Handbook: Section 1100
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles

50. This section describes what constitutes GAAP principles for private enterprises
Provides guidance on sources to consult when selecting accounting policies and determining appropriate disclosures
The primary sources of GAAP in descending order of authority:
Sections
Accounting Guidelines
CICA HB: S1100

51. Accounting guidelines set out how existing sections shall be applied in specific cases
Sections and accounting guidelines sometimes have illustrative material such as examples and decision trees
Part 1 of the handbook may be an important source to consult on matters not covered by Part 2
CICA HB: S1100

52. Consistent accounting policies used for similar transactions unless GAAP requires or permits categorization of items for which different policies may be appropriate
Specific GAAP recommendations from the primary sources override the concepts in section 1000
CICA HB: S1100

53. Jeopardy