1. Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
CariCOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook November-December 2014-January 2015 and February-March-April 2015
CIMH
Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
NMHS’s acknowledged for rainfall data delivery and participation in modelling efforts!
Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. NDJ rainfall

3. CPT probabilistic NDJ rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over September (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library)
2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over September
3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , August initialisation)
4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic
5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library)
Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

4. Experiment 1

5. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = August SST observations E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 1
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 123 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.082 Very Limited!!

6. ROC area maps

7. CCA modes

8. Experiment 1 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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9. Experiment 2

10. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = September SST observations W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 5
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 6
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 6
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.118 Limited!

11. ROC area maps

12. CCA modes

13. Experiment 2 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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14. Experiment 3

15. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = NDJ simulated SST E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, September initialisation]
Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 7
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.100 limited!

16. ROC area maps

17. CCA modes

18. NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 3
NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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19. Experiment 4

20. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = OND simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, September initialisation]
Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.152 Limited!

21. ROC area maps

22. CCA modes

23. NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 4
NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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24. Experiment 5

25. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = NDJ simulated rainfall W and 5S-35N
(i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library]
Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.129 Limited!

26. ROC area maps

27. CCA modes

28. NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 5
NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
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