1. PREPARING FOR SEA LEVEL RISE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY BC3 June 17, 2011 Jeremy Lowe, ESA PWA

2. Mitigation - avoiding the unmanageable Adaptation - managing the unavoidable

4. 2000 - 0 in 2050 14 in 2100 55 in 2100+ ?? in

5. 6.5ft NAVD - King Tide, January 2011 5.9ft NAVD – MHHW 0.6ft increase ~ 2010 - 2030

6. Photo: Mark Songey, 02/17/11

7. Photo: Heidi Nutters, 11:30am, 02/17/11

8. Franks Dump West - New Years Eve 2005 8.9 ft tides; 40mph westerly windsPhoto: Mark Taylor Inundation

9. Erosion Hayward Marsh - New Years Eve 2005 8.9 ft tides; 40mph westerly winds Photo: Mark Taylor

11. Functions Urban Urban Habitat Habitat Storm drainage Storm drainage Land fill Land fill Wastewater Wastewater Utility corridors Utility corridors Trails Trails

12. Storm drainage Designed for a certain bay elevation Designed for a certain bay elevation Lack of drainage as MLLW rises Lack of drainage as MLLW rises Structures fixed relative to tide frame Structures fixed relative to tide frame Upstream impacts will increase Upstream impacts will increase Exposure increases with time Exposure increases with time Adaptation may require pumping Adaptation may require pumping Opportunity to consolidate Opportunity to consolidate

13. Functions Urban Urban Habitat Habitat Storm drainage Storm drainage Land fill Land fill Sewage treatment Sewage treatment Utility corridors Utility corridors Trails Trails PGE EBDA line Railroad Cable HP Gas Bay trail

15. Hold the Line

16. Realign Rapid landward movement increases as sea level rises

17. Terraced Levee Rapid landward movement increases as sea level rises MudflatTidal MarshBrackish Marsh Freshwater Swale Treated Wastewater and Stormwater Seepage Overflow Wave Attenuation

18. 0ft1ft2ft3ft4ft Existing levees Terraced levees Realign functions Terraced levees Enhance existing wetlands, realign levees Lead TimeEffective Realign functions Threshold 5ft Decision An Adaptation Strategy?

19. San Pedro Road, China Camp - January 2010 spring tide Photo: Peter Baye Not an Adaptation Strategy