1. Metrics Definition Task Force
Carl Linvill, Chair—MDTF
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Overview
20 year scenario considerations - Review
Key updates for 2026 – DWG
Other updates to data pending or needed?
Key assumptions for this cycle – discussion.
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3. 20 year scenario considerations
Loads and load modifications
Fuel and Carbon
Technology costs
Tax and policy assumptions
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4. Load Adjustments Adjustments shown are relative to 2034 Reference Case
Parameter
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Net Load Growth
(-0.4%)
+ 0.4%
Incremental EE/DSM
(21%) load reduction
(11%) load reduction
Incremental Electrification
+ 160 TWh (+13% relative to RC)
+ 50 TWh (+5% relative to RC)
DG Adjustment
TBD
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. Highlights—Fuel and Carbon Costs
Reference Case carbon cost determined by Data Work Group
MDTF recommendations for Scenarios:
Natural gas price to be determined
2014 Reference Case Value
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
$58.00
$100.00
$0.00
$75.00
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6. Highlights—Technology Capital Costs
Solar PV Cost Reductions
Relative to Present Day
21%
58%
No change from Reference Case
21%
Significantly lower costs than Reference Case
21%
53%
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7. Highlights—Technology Capital Costs
Solar Thermal Cost Reductions
Relative to Present Day
10%
40%
Less cost reduction than Reference Case
25%
Greater cost reductions than Reference Case
10%
30%
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

8. Highlights—Technology Capital Costs
IGCC w/ CCS Capital Cost by Scenario ($/kW)
Technology breakthrough
$8,200
$4,800
$8,200
No change from Reference Case
$8,200
$8,200
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9. Highlights—Technology Capital Costs
Wind Cost Reductions Relative to Present Day
Largest cost reduction 9%
29%
No change from Reference Case 9% 9%
24%
Significant cost reduction—but less than S2
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10. Highlights—Technology Capital Costs
Geothermal Cost Reductions
Relative to Present Day 0%
10%
No change from Reference Case 0%
Greater cost reductions than Reference Case 0%
10%
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11. Highlights—Technology Capital Costs
Cost of 8 Hour Battery by Scenario
$4,500/kW
$1,200/kW
No change from Reference Case
$4500
Greater cost reductions than Reference Case
$4,500/kW
$2,000/kW
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12. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Tax Credits
Production Tax Credits: currently applicable to qualifying projects started by 12/31/2014 for the first 10 years of operation
Technology
Reference Case
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Biomass
$23 through 2014
$23 through 2034
Biogas
$11 through 2014
$11 through 2034
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Investment Tax Credits
Technology
Reference Case
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
CHP
10% through 2016
10% through 2034
Geothermal
Solar
30% through 2016
30% through 2034
Wind
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14. Renewable Goals Parameter Reference Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2
State RPS
Per DSIRE Data Base
Values in DSIRE Data Base increased by 50%
Values in DSIRE Data Base reduced by 50%
Federal RPS
15% minimum RPS
In-State RPS Requirement
No in-state preference
Current in-state preference applied to current requirements
No in-state preference for incremental requirements
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15. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Key DWG Updates
The following slides are taken from Jamie’s TAS presentation to give a flavor of updates.
For details, tune into Jamie’s presentation
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16. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

17. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

18. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Other updates
Ask the audience:
What other updates planned by DWG?
What other updates needed by SWG?
What other updates should be considered – ALL?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

19. Key assumption this cycle - discussion
What are the key assumptions for this cycle?
Further consideration of 2034 case assumptions in light of 2034 reference case results?
Use of what we are learning from 2026 common case?
Use of what we are learning from 2026 study cases?
Other key assumptions that need a fresh look? en
Western Electricity Coordinating Council