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Predicting Benefits of a New Investment

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Presentation on theme: "Predicting Benefits of a New Investment"— Presentation transcript:

1 Disentangling the Benefits of Transport Investments and Complementary Policies

2 Predicting Benefits of a New Investment
Finding: Improvement in city metro service reduced congestion by 10% and increased labor force participation by 5%. Key Question: What would happen if we similarly improved the city metro in other cities?

3 Effects of the Transport Intervention
Transport Investment Investment in Transport Infrastructure or Services Initial Conditions Geography, Population, Market Imperfections Soft Intervention Policies and Institutional Structure Economic & Social Benefits

4 Design a Joint Impact Evaluation Across Cities
City 1 City 2 Design a joint impact evaluation across cities Typically these cities would have different: Mobility patterns Labor markets conditions Geography Land use Financial institutions Across the cities you could vary different policy levers: Intuitional strengthening Congestion taxing Safety and security measures Carbon pricing Rebalancing urban space towards active modes City 3 City 4

5 Heatmap of Impact A joint impact evaluation across cities will allow you to understand: How effect (of an improvement in metros) on congestion and jobs varies with initial mobility patterns, initial land use, and so on How the effect varies as you use different policy instruments (soft tools). For example, congestion pricing, safety measure, carbon pricing, and so on Impact Initial Conditions Policy Interventions


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